Should this blog be called the Third Wave? Perhaps.

Most collectors know that 2008 was a time of unprecedented demand for the U.S. Mint’s American Eagle gold bullion coins.

This is the third time in the history of the program, which began in 1986, that the Mint has had to worry about ramping up production rather than cutting it back.

Back in 1986 when the program was begun, American investors and collectors were basically starved of American gold coins. The only ones that had been struck since 1933 were the 1984 Olympic $10 and the 1986 Statue of Liberty $5, and both of those were for the collector market not the investor market.

When the U.S. Mint invaded the province of the Krugerrand and the Canadian Maple Leaf, demand for the American Eagle was huge. 1,362,650 were sold in 1986 and sales didn’t even begin until October. Image the Mint trying to meet that kind of demand today.

In 1987 another 1,045,500 were sold.

Then totals backed off. In some years quite a lot. In 2001 the total of one-ounce gold coins produced was 143,605. That was just after the Second Wave of demand, which hit in 1998 and 1999 when totals were 1,468,530 and 1,505,026, respectively. Sales were spurred on in part by predictions of Y2K computer clock induced doom.

Here we are at the Third Wave and everybody knows the Mint is struggling to keep up with demand. Total sales of the one-ounce American Eagle was 789,500 in 2008.

Since the prior two waves of demand lasted for two years, does that mean 2009 will continue to see totals rise only to see then decline in 2010? We’ll see.

This time of year reminds me of my first job. I got a paper route when I was 11. The summer months were great. Running around town on my bicycle expanded my horizons.

During the first winter, the snow hit and I thought I was supposed to walk. That was a drag. It seemingly took forever to get around my route. The longer I was outside in the subzero, the colder my nose got. The colder it got, the more I wanted a solution to the problem.

I hit upon the idea of trying my bicycle again. It worked. Winter bicycle riding got me zipping along at near summer speeds even on the coldest days.

I must have looked odd. Imagine meeting someone on an ice covered street bundled up but riding a red bicycle. I didn’t care. It solved my problem. I took a tumble once or twice, but I quickly learned how to stay upright.

Numismatic education is the same way. Every collector has to find out for himself what works. There is a lot to learn. There is a sense of helpless embarrassment where you first think you should either know the stuff already, or know where to find out.

You feel like you are riding a big red bicycle down an ice covered street.

Don’t worry about it. You need to do whatever it takes to get the job done in the learning process. Since we all learn in different ways and at different rates, work out your own plan.

Come New Year’s make it a resolution that you will pick out a weak area in 2009 and you will learn about it. If every collector would do that, we would all find out that we are all still learning. Whatever we may know, there are always areas where we need help.

If everybody were doing it, like riding a red bicycle in winter, it wouldn’t seem so odd.

Will gold be $1,500 in 2009 or $500? I have to make up my mind shortly because I usually write a column about my forecasts for the new year. The price of gold has been a traditional topic for me.

I have forecast mostly higher gold values since the market upturn began in 2001, including the forecast that in 2008 gold would hit $1,000 an ounce at some point during the year, which it then did in March.

My crystal ball was cloudy enough that I did not write that it would close the year at $1,000. That certainly can still happen. There are three days left for trading and when gold starts motoring higher it can move in large increments.

Higher gold prices would be good for the numismatic industry. It feeds dealer cash flow and it is a psychological boost to many coin buyers, though every time I write that I usually get a response from someone that gold speculation and coin collecting are not the same thing. True, they aren’t, but they sure hang around together a lot.

The “but” in my situation is that growing unemployment and the huge falls in other commodities makes gold an outlier. Is gold simply the last to fall, buoyed up by enthusiastic buyers egged on by online newsletter writers? That’s my worry.

Gold is an inflation hedge. It is a way to preserve purchasing power. These two facts do not necessarily add up to its price being immune to a price decline stemming from deflation. Deflation means the purchasing power of the dollar goes up. That means to have the same purchasing power, gold’s price would decline.

The fact that we haven’t had real deflation since the 1930s makes the possibility seem remote, but it is large enough that it is making me think more about it than I have since my college economics classes.

The calendar says it is Friday, but my Numismatic News deadline says it is Tuesday. Because the day we normally go to press is Christmas Day, this week’s issue goes out two days early.

And this is not just an ordinary issue. It is the Florida United Numismatists convention issue. That makes it one of the biggest of the year and it usually is a size that rivals the one that goes to the summer American Numismatic Association convention.

This year’s FUN convention will be a good one. It always is. The question each year rests on just how good. The climate usually assures a pleasant beginning. Seeing all the players in numismatics makes it important. What these players choose to do Jan. 8-11 will set the business tone for the opening weeks of 2009.

Can we continue to buck the general economic gloom that is enveloping the world, or will the coin hobby roll over, too?

Certainly the opportunity to set new records will be present. Heritage is calling the auction. It looks like it has the potential to be another gangbusters event.

More coins will be offered from the Queller Family collection. This time it is patterns. If David and Howard Queller are attending, say hello. They clearly love being part of the hobby. I met them in April when their 1804 silver dollar was on the block. To say it was a memorable experience is an understatement.

Just after the sale, David remarked that his knees were still shaking when I talked to him for Coin Chat Radio.

My knees are kind of shaking, too, because as I wrote at the beginning, for me it is Tuesday. I better get back at it.

From the moment the stock market crash occurred in 1929 to the bottom in 1932 when 90 percent of peak market value was wiped out and 25 percent of the work force was unemployed there were people who exclaimed “inflation” every time a suggestion was made to arrest the devastating deflation that was occurring.

Nowadays, those who profit from the gold selling business also exclaim “inflation” when similar measures are taken to counter the present slump.

The debt of the federal government and of the Federal Reserve have expanded rapidly since September.

“Inflationary” cry the gold crowd.

Is it possible to be right and still be wrong?

Just as every equation has values on both sides of an equal sign, you have to look on the other side of the economic equation.

Growth in debt by the government and the central bank does tend to be inflationary. No question. The gold sellers are right. However, the spendable asset values that are daily being wiped out by the stock market, bad mortgages, bad car loans, bad credit cards, etc., are destroying more value than the Feds are creating so far.

The so-called inflationary policies are trying to counter the deflationary effect of the decline in value of bad assets. Inflation is the intention.

If I and everybody else choose to walk around with double the cash in our wallets, that might be inflationary, but if a greater value has been destroyed in our homes and retirement plans, we have less ability to spend in the economy than when we had half the cash in our wallets.

It is only when the inflationary tendency exceeds the deflationary that the net result is inflation. Anybody buying gold who justifies the decision solely on federal actions might end up being sadly surprised if the other half of the equation has a greater impact.

The wind is howling outside. Temperatures are in the process of  dropping about 50 degrees in a 24-hour period to below zero in these parts.

This is a good time to think about the Florida United Numismatists convention that convenes Jan. 8 in Orlando. The Florida climate seems pretty appealing about now.

However, I won’t be there.

I am such a regular at the convention that I cannot remember the last year that I was not in attendance. I send my regrets to all who might have expected to see me there, most especially the Sarasota Coin Club.

In the last few years I have been a speaker at their annual FUN meeting. The club sponsors a bus for members to the show and their meeting turns out a large number of members in consequence. It’s a good group.

My topic lately has been forecasts for the coming year and confessing the mistakes of prior forecasts. I have enjoyed giving the talks because the questions that follow are always good ones.
Since I also put my forecasts in my column, I can’t escape my mistakes this cycle. I have a couple of winners to brag about, too, so it won’t be one-sided.

I have not yet come up with my forecasts for next year, but soon I must.

What do you think will be the big events in 2009? Where will precious metals go? What will most affect you in the next 12 months?

Let me know. Post a comment here.

Tom Hallenbeck has thrown his hat in the ring for vice president of the American Numismatic Association.

We are a long way from the March 31 filing deadline, but so far, he is the only candidate to declare. If he remains so, he will bring much needed experience to the board of governors.

I have written in prior blogs that it is possible for a majority of the board to be newcomers when it meets next summer in Los Angeles to begin a two-year term of office.

Hallenbeck has served on the board for four years previously, 1997-2001, and would not be a newcomer to ANA responsibilities.

His decision, plus the decision of four incumbent governors to run for re-election, makes it increasingly likely that a majority of the board will have experience.

Of course, the ANA voters will have the final say. They could choose candidates other than incumbents when they get their ballots in the mail around June 1 of next year. We’ll see.

In the meantime, it is a good idea to point out that Hallenbeck runs a coin business in Colorado Springs, Colo., the ANA headquarters city, so he is both handy and familiar with the organization’s operation.

Add in his spirit of volunteerism exemplified by his regular teaching at Summer Seminars and he sets a good example for all ANA members.

The stockings aren’t hung yet by the chimney with care, but it sure looks like a postcard view of a Christmas scene in Wisconsin when I looked out the window this morning.

Traditionally, business normally slows down a bit at this time of year as everybody in the hobby focuses on family and friends during the holidays. This year, the pause seems to be worrying decision makers in the hobby/industry and they seem to be waiting for the New Year to arrive to assess the state of their business going forward.

That’s not a bad thing. In fact, it might be called a return to a more normal activity pattern than we have seen in several years. The frantic pace of the precious metals markets and the numismatic market caused many to abbreviate their seasonal breaks in the last couple of years so they could stay in the great game of making money.

It used to be that the Michigan State Numismatic Society show on Thanksgiving weekend was the informal end of the business year. Business would then pick up again as rested and refreshed dealers and collectors assembled in Orlando, Fla., for the Florida United Numismatists convention in early January.

A return of this restful interval, now demarcated by the close of the Money Show of the Southwest in Houston, Texas, during the first weekend of December, simply seems unnatural to those who have been in hyperdrive the last couple of years.

Will January see a renewal of the frantic pace? I don’t know. It simply seems like a good idea to me to put worry aside and accept this gift of traditional time.

With a new administration taking over in 2009, America’s paper money will change a bit, also. With Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner succeeding Henry M. Paulson Jr. that means a new series date of 2009 for the $1 Federal Reserve Notes and other denominations. The current date is 2006.

Unlike coins, paper money dates do not change with the year. They usually change with a change in Treasury secretary, or with a major design change.

A facsimile of the Treasury secretary’s signature appears on the right side of our current bank notes. The Treasurer of the United States signature appears on the left. This latter job is one of those that only a few collectors even know. The current signature is that of Anna Escobedo Cabral. If a treasurer alone changes, the series date usually is retained except that a suffix letter is put after the date to indicate it.

The big paper money change that collectors are waiting for is for the $100 Federal Reserve Note. It is overdue. The current Big Head design is getting a little long in the tooth. It was first produced in 1996 as the first example of the new counterfeit-resistant notes that have changed the overall look of our paper money.

What the new $100 will look like is keenly awaited information. This and the signature changes should inject some additional interest in the paper money hobby next year. I am looking forward to that outcome.

Call me puzzled. Collectors as a group have strong opinions. One current opinion somewhat mystifies me. Let me explain.

I received a response to last week’s poll question about whether collectors would be buying Abraham Lincoln commemorative silver dollars next year, but the writer went on to comment about the upcoming four cent designs that will be released to circulation next year, too.

“If my money holds out, I will probably buy the Lincoln silver dollar. It makes a lot more sense than four different versions of the Lincoln cents. What a total waste of the productive capacity of the Mint.”

The swipe at the four cents is a related topic, but I have received a fairly large number of similarly expressed sentiments in other e-mails and letters to the editor in recent weeks.

As I said, I don’t get it.

When legislative proposals arrive in Congress to abolish the cent, a majority of collectors rise up to defend it.

When the numbers of commemorative coins, special collector sets and special precious metal issues get expensively out of hand for the average collector to buy, I receive numerous complaints.

So why is there what seems to be a significant number of collectors who take a swing at something that will make the cent relevant to the rest of the country for the 12 months of 2009 as we observe the 200th anniversary of the birth of Abraham Lincoln?

We will get them for face value in our change, so the price is certainly not excessive. They will be incorporated in the standard mint sets and proof sets, so everyone will have an opportunity to buy collector versions if they so choose in sets that they would normally buy anyway.

So why the bashing of the four cents? Unless it means collectors really do want to see the cent abolished and more and more expensive gold and silver coins offered to collectors instead.

Now that Clifford Mishler has thrown his hat in the ring to run for president of the American Numismatic Association in next year’s election, ANA members are talking about how the election might play out.

If you are one of those, you might find it worthwhile to listen to this week’s Coin Chat Radio program. I interviewed Cliff and he talked about his reasons for running against an incumbent vice president, which historically has led to the defeat of the challenger.

Cliff likes his chances against Vice President Patti Finner despite history and he cites his experience as CEO of Krause Publications and his more than half century as a collector and ANA members as reasons the ANA electorate might break their habit of standing by an orderly succession.

The interview is a part of the program that will be posted at www.coinchatradio.com at 11 a.m. Central Standard Time tomorrow.

Listen in.

Fans of the program might remember that we interviewed Patti Finner before the election campaign started on other topics, so I will have to schedule another one to catch up on events.

Have you noticed that Martin Van Buren First Spouse half-ounce gold coins are on sale? You can be forgiven if in the midst of the Thanksgiving holiday preparation that you missed it.

This is not intended to be a slam at the Mint. It is simply an observation about the calendar, which gets awfully crowded with family and social obligations of the season at this time of year.

The coin is the fourth this year and the eighth in the series. Price is the same as for other recent issues. It is $549.95 for the proof, which usually outsells the uncirculated nowadays as we are beyond the sellout excitement generated by the first three issues. The uncirculated is priced at $524.95.

The Dolley Madison issue was recently taken off sale, but the four for the year 2008 are all still available.

The Madison is the first issue to go off sale without achieving a sellout. The proof sales total is 18,355 and the uncirculated sales total is 12,541. That is about 9,000 short of the total possible combined maximum of 40,000. Sales numbers for the succeeding issues so far are lower.

Check the various First Spouse issues out at www.usmint.gov.

Just as we were putting the Numismatic News issue to bed before heading off last week to enjoy Thanksgiving dinner with our families, details arrived about the funeral of former American Numismatic Association treasurer Adna G. Wilde Jr., who died Nov. 17 at the age of 88.

Certainly they will appear in the following issue, but I would like to share them here as well.

His funeral will be held at 9 a.m. Eastern Standard Time at Arlington National Cemetery. He served in the 10th Mountain Division of the U.S. Army in Italy during World War II and had a military career that saw him retire as a lieutenant colonel.

The American Numismatic Association, which he loved and served since 1947 first as a member and later as president, executive director and parliamentarian, will hold a memorial service the same day at 10 a.m. Mountain Standard Time at headquarters in Colorado Springs, Colo., a place that Mr. Wilde also loved.

More importantly, a scholarship fund has been set up in his honor that is most appropriate.

Donations can be made to the Adna G. Wilde Jr. Summer Seminar Scholarship Fund in care of the American Numismatic Association, 818 N. Cascade Ave., Colorado Springs, CO 80903.

Wilde was a co-founder of the event with Edward C. Rochette in 1968. It has grown from 17 students to around 400 each year. It is one of the ANA’s great contributions to our shared hobby.

Rest in peace, Adna. Your beloved ANA is carrying on.