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 Monday, June 30, 2008
Time for world notes
Posted by Dave
World paper money is the place to be right now judging from what I saw at the paper money show in Memphis, Tenn., over the weekend. There were more buyers who came from overseas to do business than has been the case in many years if ever. I have now been to 20 shows in a row. Prosperity in Russia has given collectors from that country the means to go on a buying spree in the United States as their counterparts in the coin field have been doing. The strong euro has armed European buyers with the means to take huge quantities of material home with them. One American dealer said that stuff is not ever coming back in his lifetime. A Chinese Ming note that had a hammer price of $33,000 on Thursday night at the Lyn Knight auction was talked about. That was more than four times the high estimate of $7,500. Even the low end, the notes that are used for countless promotions have gone up in price. Another world dealer said the common notes bought by the thousands or tens of thousands are now more than a dime apiece. Boy. the dollar is weak when it takes a dime to buy one note of a modern defunct or near worthless currency. But such is the compelling power of the idea of collecting these days. What of the American market? The balance of opinion seems to weigh in on the underachieving side, but that was as much a function of the lack of fresh material as it was the slightly weaker attendance. All the major players were there looking to buy. I am glad I was able to attend the show and even gladder to be home. I owe a special thanks to show chairman Mike Crabb and a double special thanks to his wife Julia for all their help this year.
6/30/2008 8:57:21 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Friday, June 27, 2008
No, I’m not hiding
Posted by dave
I’m sweating and it is not the Memphis heat. I have so many assignments here that it will be a wonder if I can get them all done. I have to check out the exhibits so I can give the “Bank Note Reporter Most Inspirational Exhibit Award” tomorrow at the Society of Paper Money Collectors meeting. It would be an easier task if Martin Delger didn’t pack the place with more than 100 cases year after year. There are a number of people I have to interview for Coin Chat Radio. My handy recorder is in my jacket pocket (yes, I am wearing a suit). Photos need to be taken for the next issue of Bank Note Reporter and I need a few dealer quotes to go with them. Tomorrow is a solid day of meetings and I won’t get much chance to simply float with the current on the bourse floor. It is good to have a purpose at a show. You get more done that way, but if you happen to be looking for me at the bourse table, you probably won’t find me. It might be quicker to have me paged. Just know that I’m not hiding.
6/27/2008 9:13:21 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Thursday, June 26, 2008
Memphis attracts paper fans
Posted by dave
I’m on the road again, heading to Memphis, Tenn., to attend the International Paper Money show that has been held there annually since 1977. I will not be alone. As the premier paper money event in the nation, it will attract a large group of avid paper money collectors. They will not be deterred by the high price of gasoline or the level of inconvenience at the airports. The market remains hungry for fresh material and the only chance of finding it is to be the first one in line as your favorite dealer source sets up today on the bourse floor at the Cook convention center. Lyn Knight’s auction also begins tonight and it is not short of desirable material. Currently, the paper money market is suffering from the problems of success. There are more buyers with money than ever before and they are chasing a limited supply of notes. Perhaps the irony in this is that when the show was founded, it was located in Memphis as a cheap and easily driveable venue for people who were engaged in an activity that was then coin collecting’s poor relation. Anyone who bought any significant pieces in 1977 can now add a couple of zeroes to the price. What will collectors in 2039 be saying about the notes purchased this year?
6/26/2008 9:02:32 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Wednesday, June 25, 2008
People's needs don't square with art
Posted by Dave
The Mint gives collectors another reason to attend the American Numismatic Association World’s Fair of Money in Baltimore at the end of July. It will put on display an example of the Ultra-High-Relief $20 gold piece that will be sold to collectors next year. The coin will be 27 millimeters in diameter and be about 50 percent thicker than current one-ounce bullion coins. It will contain one-troy ounce of gold. This generation of collectors grew up with stories of Theodore Roosevelt’s commitment to give the United States a coinage worthy of ancient Greece. His chosen instrument was Augustus Saint-Gaudens, who came up with a completely impractical design in 1907 that met Roosevelt’s standard but couldn’t stand up to the demands of mere commerce. Bankers didn’t like high relief because the coins would not stack properly. With much business conducted with gold coins, the artist simply provided bankers with something to hate on a daily basis. Roosevelt believed that low commerce was no place to invoke the name of God and asked that the motto be omitted from the new $20. It was, causing another uproar from average Americans. Now in this age of subprime loans going sour we can see how unusual a coalition of bankers and average Americans is. This peculiar coalition saw to it that the coin was modified. The relief was massively lowered and “In God We Trust” was added. America ended up with a coin unworthy of ancient Greece, but it satisfied the American people. This is kind of like the story of the Wisconsin state quarter. Whatever you say about the cow, the corn and the cheese, it was the choice of the people. The people don’t always choose art. To see an example of real coinage art, go to the ANA convention. No doubt Roosevelt would approve.
6/25/2008 9:04:57 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Tuesday, June 24, 2008
Waiting builds character
Posted by Dave
Commemorative silver dollars are on my mind this morning. The Mint is going to unveil the new 2009 Louis Braille silver dollar July 2 at the National Federation of the Blind’s 2008 convention in Dallas. It is an appropriate venue. It is appropriate to promote the upcoming commemorative coin, but my fear is that with all the hullabaloo in the news media that is likely to result, there will be an awful lot of people who will want to buy one. The coins will not be available until the spring of 2009, nearly one year off. That is probably going to frustrate not a few would-be buyers. We live in an age of instant gratification. Desires that are not rapidly met are replaced with other desires and the original impulse can be lost. Even longtime collectors can get revved up by coins recovered from sunken ships and want to buy right away. I have had not a few inquiries over the years from readers who want to know how to buy a specific coin mentioned in a specific article and are disappointed to learn that it is not available at all times from the dealer community. In short, the thrill of the hunt is not necessarily appealing to one and all. When the coin is unveiled at 8 a.m., July 2, at AT&T Plaza at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, I will be prepared to wait. I hope others will be, too.
6/24/2008 9:06:22 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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Waiting builds character
Posted by Dave
Commemorative silver dollars are on my mind this morning. The Mint is going to unveil the new 2009 Louis Braille silver dollar July 2 at the National Federation of the Blind’s 2008 convention in Dallas. It is an appropriate venue. It is appropriate to promote the upcoming commemorative coin, but my fear is that with all the hullabaloo in the news media that is likely to result, there will be an awful lot of people who will want to buy one. The coins will not be available until the spring of 2009, nearly one year off. That is probably going to frustrate not a few would-be buyers. We live in an age of instant gratification. Desires that are not rapidly met are replaced with other desires and the original impulse can be lost. Even longtime collectors can get revved up by coins recovered from sunken ships and want to buy right away. I have had not a few inquiries over the years from readers who want to know how to buy a specific coin mentioned in a specific article and are disappointed to learn that it is not available at all times from the dealer community. In short, the thrill of the hunt is not necessarily appealing to one and all. When the coin is unveiled at 8 a.m. at AT&T Plaza at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, I will be prepared to wait. I hope others will be, too.
6/24/2008 9:02:43 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Monday, June 23, 2008
Letter from Dave Bowers a treat
Posted by Dave
I had a pleasant surprise in my mail on Friday. It was a short note from Q. David Bowers and a section of the June 16 Union Leader newspaper located in Manchester, N.H., was enclosed with it. Mail from Dave is always welcome. His Coins and Collectors published in 1964 was one of the earliest books I ever read about numismatics and it taught me that numismatics was more than just dates, mintages, grades and values. Every coin has a story to tell and Dave Bowers is the consummate storyteller. His urge to share these stories has made his career as a coin dealer and lately as the most prolific book author in our business. The story he wanted me to see was of an 81-year-old friend of his named Murray Clark who made a purchase at a newly reopened Fadden’s General Store in North Woodstock, N.H. In the story Clark told of having been sent by dogsled to make purchases for his father in 1933. His purchase at the general store was a milestone in that he has done business with five generations of Faddens. To mark the occasion, he gave Jim Fadden a large-size 1923 $1 Silver Certificate. It is now considered the first dollar earned at the reopening. What Dave didn’t tell me in his letter was where Murray Clark got the Silver Certificate. They are not particularly scarce, but even 81-year-olds don’t routinely have them lying around the house for special occasions. Perhaps Dave Bowers helped his friend out. Perhaps he didn’t, but knowing Dave has an eye on things like this is perfectly in character for the man I truly respect. Thanks, Dave.
6/23/2008 9:00:50 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Friday, June 20, 2008
Still collect Lincolns?
Posted by Dave
I never found a 1909-S VDB Lincoln cent in the coins I searched during the circulation finds era in the middle 1960s. I didn’t find a 1914-D, 1931-S, or even the lesser 1910-S, 1911-S, 1912-S or 1914-S. The 1915-S I found was so awful looking that the sense of accomplishment I had at filling the hole in the Whitman album was almost overcome by the knowledge that no other collector would ever want it. But then at my age and budget, much of the fun was in the Bingo approach to coin collecting. Keep filling those holes and the rest would take care of itself. I tired of looking for Lincolns. The lack of anything interesting was pretty obvious and as soon as my paper route budget could get me the funds to finance searches of the higher denominations, I had much more fun and the searches were somewhat more fruitful. All of these Lincoln memories are starting to come back as I look at the calendar and begin thinking about its centennial year next year. Nostalgia among collectors will be high. While all collectors basically know that most of their fellow hobbyists began with Lincoln cents, the question remains how many actually stayed with Lincoln cents? Those albums that I filled and partially filled in the 1960s I still have, though I haven’t purchased a single individual Lincoln cent since I splurged for a BU 1931-S in 1969. The exceptions, of course, are the cents I get as part of the proof sets and mint sets I usually buy from the Mint. Am I still a Lincoln cent collector? Are other collectors in the same boat? If a pollster asked them if they collected Lincoln cents and they hadn’t found or bought one in many years but still retain the old albums, would they answer yes or no? Give it some thought. Are you still collecting Lincoln cents?
6/20/2008 8:58:59 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Thursday, June 19, 2008
No, not the initials
Posted by Dave
The job of education is never finished. I had another example of the truth of this statement yesterday from a phone call. Now, when I receive a phone call, I do not know whether the caller has some numismatic knowledge or no numismatic knowledge. I don’t know if he asked for me by name or just somehow got to me because an operator decided I was close enough. Yesterday’s call started out with a fellow talking about Jefferson nickels and wondering if he could find “FS” on “65” nickels. OK, my brain kicks in. This guy is a collector who has some knowledge and he just misspoke. The designer initials for Felix Schlag were first put on a the Jefferson nickel in 1966 and you could indeed find “FS” at the base of the bust. I replied that yes indeed you could find “FS” below the bust on nickels from 1966 going forward. Wrong answer. That wasn’t his question. We had begun an Abbott and Costello “Who’s on first?” routine. He continued to seem puzzled and continued to speak. I asked him what book he was using and what edition. He was using the 2008 Coin Digest. He was on Page 83. So I went there. It came to be that the “FS” he was referring to was part of the grade head “-65FS.” So then we get into a discussion that it stands for Full Steps. He didn’t know Monticello had six steps. But still we conversed in puzzlement. He saw all the high prices that “-65FS” coins commanded and he asked how you could tell if the coins were “-65FS” or not. That got into a grading discussion. I began speaking of the 70-point scale and MS-65 coins. He asked if “MS” appeared on the coins anywhere. He also wondered why nickels from 1959 and later had no prices below MS-65 listed in the book. I replied that they basically do not trade for more than face value and so are not priced. He responded that the earlier listings had more prices. I said that was true but the prices were for the scarcer dates. He wondered why some dates had prices and others simply had dashes. The coins with dashes don’t have collector values in those grades. We never reached a satisfactory meeting of the minds. He was trying to determine the value of 20 sets that he said his neighbor, who is now ill, had put together. I suggested that it might help if he read Chapter 4 on Page 37, which explains how grading works. He said he would take a look at it. I hope he does, but I came away from the conversation knowing that we had not reached any common reference points in the conversation let alone any understanding. There is definitely more work ahead for me and for the hobby.
6/19/2008 9:04:56 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Wednesday, June 18, 2008
Mint holds the line
Posted by Dave
Just when you think everything is going up in price, it is nice to come across the news that 2008 clad proof sets will be the same price as the 2007 sets when they go on sale June 24. The $26.95 price is steady. For collectors who have been in the hobby for many years, the price might still seem on the high side as they recall the $2.10 price of the last silver proof set of 1964 and $5 for the first clad proof set in 1968, but it must be remembered that there are many more coins in the set this year. In both 1964 and 1968 there were just five coins in the set, the cent, nickel, dime, quarter and half dollar. This year the set has nearly three times as many coins at 14. There are five $1 coins. There are four Presidential dollars and the Sacagawea dollar. There are five state quarters. And, of course, there are examples of the cent, nickel, dime and half dollar. Face value in 1968 was 91 cents. Face value this year is $6.91. By one metric, this year’s set is cheaper than the 1968 set. Where the cost of the 1968 set was 5.49 times face value, the cost of the 2008 set is 3.90 times face value. I suppose another metric, which may not be universal is my personal “what could I afford with my paper route income” metric. It is far easier today for me to buy a proof set for $26.95 than it was for me to get the $5 in 1968. Actually, the first set I ever ordered from the Mint was the 1969 set, but it was the same price and the same income situation when those sets went on sale Nov. 1, 1968. This latter personal metric may not always feel true because there are many more claims on my income now than there were four decades ago. Nevertheless, the Mint holding the line on the proof set price is most welcome news.
6/18/2008 8:54:49 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Tuesday, June 17, 2008
King size prices
Posted by Dave
There is an old phrase used when something is very valuable, “It’s worth a king’s ransom.” But what is a ransom worth? We have an idea now that Heritage has sold some of the $20 Federal Reserve Notes that were used to pay off skyjacker D.B. Cooper, who jumped out of a passenger jet Nov. 24, 1971, somewhere in the Pacific Northwest. Cooper was never found, but some of the ransom money he was paid was. It turned up in 1980 on the banks of the Columbia River near Vancouver, Wash. It was found by Brian Ingram, who was eight years old at the time. Fifteen Series 1969 (and other then current series) $20 Federal Reserve Notes that no collector would even look at in less than uncirculated grade realized $37,433 combined in a Heritage Auction Galleries Americana memorabilia auction June 13. Though they were certified by PCGS Currency, they were in tatters. Prices include a 19,5 percent buyer’s fee. Ingram still has 70 more of these notes, so at that rate they would be worth almost another $175,000, which is interesting, because the full ransom at the time of the hijacking was $200,000. Obviously, in light of the high prices, none of the current buyers would like to see the rest of the ransom turn up – as historically interesting as such a possibility would be.
6/17/2008 8:58:48 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Monday, June 16, 2008
Three stars for Tennessee
Posted by Dave
I had a telephone call from a helpful Numismatic News reader on Friday. He had the answer to a question asked by a writer in the June 17 issue. In that particular issue, Phillip M. Lo Presti begins his two-part commentary on the designs of all of the 50 state quarters. Most readers have opinions about the various designs and Lo Presti decided to jump into that pool and share his. Perhaps other readers will then follow suit and share their opinions. The question Lo Presti asks has to do with the Tennessee quarter design on which appears a guitar, trumpet and violin and the words, “Musical Heritage.” Also, toward the top are three five-pointed stars. Lo Presti asks what they stand for. A helpful caller wanted to let me know that they stand for the three states of Tennessee or grand divisions as he also called them, the east, middle and west. I asked the caller if he would send me an e-mail or a letter to run as a letter to the editor, but he did not want to do so. We don’t normally transcribe phone calls, but this information is worth sharing, so I use this space to pass the information along. Sharing these tidbits of information and history are a part of what the state quarter program was supposed to be all about. On that score, and on many others, it is working.
6/16/2008 8:58:15 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Friday, June 13, 2008
Niche in time
Posted by Dave
It is easy to get caught up in the fluctuations of gold, silver and platinum. Or is it? Are we in just a small niche? My first bullion boom was in the 1960s. The federal government controlled the price of silver until it set it free in 1967. Then it was real control. There were no hints in investment newsletters about something unprovable. There was an official price of $1.2929 per ounce. It could not hold because the Treasury had to sell in the open market to keep the price there and it was rapidly drawing down its holdings of the precious metal. The price was freed and before year end, it had hit a high of $2.17. In 1968, the high point was $2.56. In those days, everybody could play. There were still $1 Silver Certificates in circulation. Can you imagine that virtually all the $1 bills in circulation up until 1963 were Silver Certificates? It was in that year that $1 Federal Reserve Notes were authorized. Since Silver Certificates were backed by real silver, first silver dollars and later bullion and they were redeemable, their price rose with the price of silver bullion. Numerous buy ads appeared from issue to issue in Numismatic News and Coins Magazine. The redemption deadline was June 24, 1968, so the activity really got frantic as the clock ticked down the final moments of real commodity backed money that the public could redeem. Anybody could check change for 90 percent silver coins. There were buy ads for these, too. Nowadays, there seems to be a feeding frenzy, but it has not ever achieved the widespread involvement of the 1960s. Times and conditions change. We are in a niche. It is a quiet boom.
6/13/2008 9:06:48 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Thursday, June 12, 2008
Mint tries new Presidential tack
Posted by Dave
Complaints by collectors that their banks do not get examples of new Presidential dollar coins as they are issued seem to have resonated at the Mint. Yesterday, it announced a new program that allows banks and retailers and even members of the public to bypass the normal banking coin distribution system to get the coins directly from the Mint. There are limitations. The quantity is limited to 500 coins per Presidential dollar issuing period, the coins will not be separated by mintmark, and I presume, no special care will be taken to keep the coins looking good. The initiative is called the $1 Coin Direct Ship Program. The coins are packaged in box quantities of 10 rolls totaling 250 coins. The minimum order is one box and the maximum is two. Would be buyers are directed to the Mint’s Web site at http://www.usmint.gov/$1coin. The boxes may also be ordered by telephone at (800) USA-MINT. The Mint pays standard shipping costs. It will charge buyers for shipping only if special handling is required. This program is not intended to run around special collector issues, though undoubtedly some individuals might give these boxes a whirl precisely for that reason. Also, it will be interesting to see how many banks take advantage of the opportunity now that their standard excuse of not getting Presidential $1 coins from their armored car service is removed. Kudos to the Mint for the effort.
6/12/2008 9:02:37 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Green with envy?
Posted by Dave
Back about 10 years ago I remember stories in the Wall Street Journal about stock market veterans shaking their heads about the tech stock boom and getting out. Some classic mutual fund managers even closed their funds because the market had gone against their style of investing for so long. The eager and smart money of the time scoffed. Then tech stocks collapsed after they peaked in March 2000 and investors lost a great deal of money that they have yet to make up. Now financial writers are writing about 10 lost years. Anyone with a 401(k) understands. Look at the coin and paper money markets. They are hot. The sky seems to be the limit, but is it? Worse, I notice professionals in the business getting out, or at least lightening up, as the veteran stock market veterans were doing 10 years ago. Col. Steve Ellsworth sold his coppers in May. Sergio Sanchez Jr. has consigned his paper money to Lyn Knight at the end of the month. These are respected names in the business. Is it their time of life or is it their experience tells them something? I am not advocating stop-and-go collecting, but it would seem prudent not to get caught up in the current market fads. Stick to your long-terrm plan. Collect what you know. Don’t overcommit. The grass may look greener somewhere else, but it just might be that your own pasture is the best place to be in the present numismatic market.
6/11/2008 9:01:03 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Tuesday, June 10, 2008
Iola not too soggy
Posted by Dave
I received an e-mail of concern this morning from a reader asking how we were doing in light of the news he was hearing about floods in Wisconsin. I appreciate the concern, though I could not resist answering humorously. I responded that we here in Iola are so far north that the rain couldn’t find us. It is no joking matter for the people in the southern part of the state. Areas from La Crosse on the west to Milwaukee on the east were affected, including major damage to the tourist area known as the Wisconsin Dells. With gas around $4 a gallon, there is concern about the summer tourist season. Now with the flooding, further misery has been added. Speaking of tourists, I have written about Iola’s annual Old Car Show before. It is coming up July 10-13. This topic arises again because in the weekly Numismatic News poll question, it was asked if high gasoline prices are causing readers to reduce show attendance. I received one response from a reader in Arkansas who said it would mean he couldn’t come to the car show. While that wasn’t the question asked, it certainly is a relevant topic. Arkansas is a long drive from here. I have done it myself when driving to the Memphis paper money show. I still hope he can scrape up the time and money to come visit. There is still a month to figure out how.
6/10/2008 8:56:41 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Monday, June 09, 2008
What kind of summer for hobby?
Posted by Dave
Though the calendar does not officially declare it summer, the weather certainly does and in a way so does the numismatic calendar. The Baltimore show concluded over the weekend and now the show schedule thins out. The question that I ask annually as routinely as a doctor’s office takes blood pressure is will commercial activity maintain an active pace or will it recede to a slow and easy pace as hobbyists take up their summer activities? My next scheduled show is the International Paper Money Show in Memphis the last weekend in June. The second summer Florida United Numismatists convention will also be held the same weekend. Both shows are looking to find a home on the calendar. Memphis used to be anchored to Father’s Day weekend until the convention center and hotels got better paying guests. Summer FUN in West Palm Beach is in its second year and is still looking to establish itself in the hobby routine. Last year’s show was held in July and it was a good start. This year’s show is expected to build on the prior one. Would-be hobby vacationers know it is easier to skip coin shows than it is paper money shows because there are so few of the latter. Memphis is the big paper money show on the calendar, so the paper money segment of the hobby will not yield to the temptation to slack off until after it has concluded. The large fluctuations in the bullion market argue for coin collectors to pay more than the usual summer attention to coins. This goes double for dealers. So what is my conclusion? Perhaps the old-fashioned notion of combining business and pleasure will prevail. FUN has a beach. Memphis has Graceland and nearby gambling, so show goers could find a reason to stay in both areas longer.
6/9/2008 9:02:37 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Friday, June 06, 2008
Eagle rationing gets tighter
Posted by Dave
I just received a copy of a letter being sent to the Mint's authorized purchasers of silver American Eagles. The tight supply situation continues and will get even tighter next week. Text of the letter follows: June 6, 2008 MEMORANDUM TO ALL AMERICAN EAGLE AUTHORIZED PURCHASERS FROM: Cathy Laperle Team Lead, Bullion Program United States Mint SUBJECT: American Eagle Silver Bullion Coin Update The United States Mint has been informed by its silver blank vendors that the volume of blanks they will be shipping to us in the coming weeks will be significantly reduced. Specifically, the quantities they will ship to us during the week of June 9 are expected to be less than half the quantities they shipped to us during the week of June 2. Our vendors, however, expect to be able to make incremental increases in supplies each week thereafter. In the mean time, the significant reduction in the number of blanks they supply to us will, of course, directly affect the quantity of coins we can make available for allocation to our Authorized Purchasers. Accordingly, the United States Mint will continue allocating American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins per the process initiated on April 21, 2008. As you know, in the first six months of 2008 production, the United States Mint produced more American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins (10.07 million) than we did during the entire 12-month period of 2007 (9.03 million). The United States Mint stands ready to continue this high level of production as additional blanks become available from our suppliers. The United States Mint is making every effort to increase its acquisition of silver bullion blanks that meet the specifications and requirements of the law. In our efforts to meet unprecedented demand, the United States Mint is again preparing a request for proposals (RFP) for additional silver blank suppliers. Additionally, we are not using incoming supplies of silver blanks to produce numismatic versions of these coins (American Eagle Silver Proof and Uncirculated Coins); all incoming inventory is being used solely for silver bullion coins during this reduced supply period. Thank you for your patience and your continued support of the United States Mint American Eagle Silver Bullion Coin Program.
6/6/2008 12:44:04 PM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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Novel theory
Posted by Dave
What do you think? I read the following about the Mint's rationing of silver American Eagles and I have to give the guy points for guts, but it seems to be an allegation that anything less than an effort by the government to make silver holdings worth more is somehow illegal. http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1212595279.phpThere has been a speculative streak in collectors regarding silver for over 40 years, since the great coin shortage of the middle 1960s and the Coinage Act of 1965 that by and large drove silver coins out of circulation by the end of 1968. We’ve had up markets and down markets, but this is the most novel approach I have ever seen in any market in the last four decades. It comes in language that we might have heard in the backrooms of Washington, D.C., just prior to the Bland-Allison Act of 1878 or any other silver-propping legislation of the following years. If this is the intent, it would seem to me to indicate market weakness rather than a sound economic position and a strange appeal for government intervention to cause prices to rise couched in language that implies the opposite.
6/6/2008 8:59:18 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Thursday, June 05, 2008
Look, we're stress free
Posted by Dave
Most days of the week I check the Web site http://www.coinflation.com/ to see what the metallic values of the zinc cent and the nickel are. It is a handy site if you want to know those numbers because it sure beats making the calculations myself or setting up something on my computer to calculate it for me. Though it is illegal to melt cents and nickels, the concept of melt value is a handy one. It is an indicator of the level of stress on the supplies of these and other coins in the U.S. banking system. If the melt value rises, you can be sure that the risk of hoarding rises. If the melt value falls, the risk of hoarding falls. What are the current numbers? Well, when I checked this morning, the copper-coated zinc cent was valued at slightly more than one-half cent as metal. To be precise, as the Coinflation.com site is, the number is .0052711. Nobody in his right mind would be tempted to melt anything that would reduce its value by half. There would appear to be no stress on the cent supply from a threat of hoarding. A previous blog where I mentioned the significant decline of Mint output of cents would confirm this. Any incipient hoarding would show up as increasing demand for the coins from the Mint and that would make production totals rise. What about the nickel? Numismatic News ran several pieces by Russ Rulau last year about hoarding and what is currently found in circulation. This seemed a reasonable topic when the price of the metal in the coin very nearly reached 10 cents, or double the face value. The current value, though still over face value, is .0577402. That means that on a $1,000 face value, if you could melt everything without cost to you, you would have copper and nickel worth roughly $1,154. Since accumulating the coins, shipping the coins and melting the coins cannot occur without cost, there doesn’t seem to be any hoarding stress on this denomation either. Current mintage figures confirm this. They are down, too. The Web site also provides melt values for other coins that are useful. These run from the 90 percent silver coins to the current clad compositions. Thanks Coinflation.com.
6/5/2008 9:00:36 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Wednesday, June 04, 2008
On the trail of gold
Posted by Dave
As I drove the mile to work this morning, I noticed that the price of gasoline at the two stations I pass at the center of town were posting a price for regular unleaded of $3.949. That is down three cents from the peak price. We did not reach $4 a gallon here. Is this just a pause on the way to more painful heights, or is the fact that Americans are driving less and buying smaller cars at last starting to have an impact? I don’t know. It would be nice to think so. But what I do know is to continue to keep an eagle eye on the price of gold. I have been reading recently that gold is following oil. I don’t think so. I think it is the reverse. Oil follows gold. This certainly was the case in 1980. Gold peaked a year ahead of oil and its decline was followed by oil to a remarkably similar degree. If, hypothetically, there is something in this observation, we won’t really know for sure for quite a while yet. Gold’s current peak of about $1,033 occurred in the middle of March, some two and a half months ago. Is that it? Certainly gold’s fall off the 1980 peak was far sharper than the current decline. It went from $850 Jan. 21 to $463 on March 27. So far the smart money is simply calling gold’s present decline a correction in a larger uptrend. I will watch the experts argue it out for sure, but my undivided attention will be on the actual price of the precious metal. It can foretell a lot.
6/4/2008 8:53:49 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Tuesday, June 03, 2008
Quiet isn't peaceful
Posted by Dave
I had phone call yesterday. The topic isn’t memorable. My thoughts are somewhat more so. It was another one of those calls where the caller identified himself and then began to speak. I listened. After five or six seconds he asked if I was still on the line. This has been happening to me more and more. Is the quality of our phones so bad now and callers so frequently cut off that they routinely interrupt to inquire if I am still there? I get the joke of the cellphone commercials, “Can you here me now?” But I thought we had finally cleared the hurdle of going in and out of dead zones in recent years. Another part of me wondered if we have become so unused to silence that when it occurs, it is startling and unexpected. People run around with their iPods and give their whole life a sound track like a TV show. There is no background music on my phone when I am on the line. If I am asked to listen, I do and it is absolutely quiet. So are all these inquiries as to whether I am still there the result of erratic technology or the startling and apparently unexpected absence of sound as I listen?
6/3/2008 8:49:36 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Monday, June 02, 2008
How did we get there?
Posted by Dave
Thursday afternoon was a big day for the numismatic staff at Krause Publications. At 3 p.m. the camera rolled for the pilot of Coin Chat TV. A 15-minute segment was done. Editorial director Debbie Bradley introduced me and Colin Bruce, who for many years was in charge of the catalog department that puts out the many volumes of the Standard Catalog series for coins and paper money. I had to put a suit on. For Colin, the overalls look disappeared an he put on his Snoopy tie. My tie had a Chinese coin theme as I had obtained it at the World Money Fair in Berlin. It seemed a good opportunity to wear the tie for the first time. Did it bring me luck? I think so. It was fun to do. I learned that saying copper-coated zinc cents was harder to do than I ever would have thought beforehand. Facts that you have known for years can sound twisted with the slip of the tongue. We picked the future of the cent and the $1 bill as the discussion topics precisely because we figured it would ease us into more difficult topics. We don’t yet have a studio, so we were using a round conference room that was popularly dubbed “the silo” when it was built in 1982. There was a nice skyline scene behind us. I asked, “Is this New York? I don’t recognize any of the buildings.” “No,” I was told, “It’s Vancouver.” Hey, we love ya, Canada. We prove once again that the country has a major influence in our neck of the woods. Historically, many of our place names came from the French trappers and much of our trade heads north through the Great Lakes as it always has. I saw the video Friday. When will you get to see it? I don’t know yet, but Coin Chat TV is close. Watch wwwcoinchatradio.com for more information.
6/2/2008 8:59:33 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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