Silver is spurting toward $20 an ounce. Gold is moving toward $1,000. Which will cross the nice round number first?

I don’t know, but today I am leaning to silver. Why? Well, it is one of those peculiar reasons. My firm publishes gold and silver value charts. These list the value of the bullion in various widely owned coins at various market price levels for the precious metals.

The current gold value chart tops out in the value listing at $1,200. The silver chart tops out at $20. We have run out of these. The internal mechanism for getting more printed was swinging into motion and I had to pass the word yesterday that the chart needs to be modified otherwise we would be paying production costs for something that looks set to be useless in just a few days.

Sure, silver could top out at the $19.21 that it settled at yesterday, but I don’t want to bet company money on that possibility. I would much rather see the new charts run up to the $25 area, and even that could become obsolete soon.

Our Federal Reserve chairman is so worried about the banking crisis and the need to cut interest rates, that it appears anyone with any investable funds has decided to take a spin in the commodity casino. Why collect a paltry 3 percent interest from banks or funds that may blow up when you can get huge percentage gains in commodities?

Everybody is watching the $100 mark for oil and the metals milestones but fewer are following things like wheat on the Minneapolis market hitting $24 a bushel when not that long ago it was less than $5 and this story seems to be repeating over and over across the board. Coffee has been soaring, too. That of course worries me most of all. What would I do if I couldn’t afford my morning three cups?

The gold bugs are actively dissecting the news that the International Monetary Fund appears to be in the process of making a decision to sell 12.9 million ounces of gold bullion.

Created in 1944 by the Bretton Woods treaty, the purpose of the IMF was originally to help member countries keep their exchange rates fixed by helping keep their trade accounts balanced.

This help ranged from advice to loans. Nowadays, where exchange rates are floating and nationalism has caused countries to resent or resist any advice that runs counter to prevailing political passions, the IMF has lost much of its original purpose. It does still lend money and the purpose of the gold sale is to raise some additional lendable funds.

What will the extra supply hitting the market do to the price of gold? Not very much, I would think. As long as the Federal Reserve continues to rapidly increase the American money supply, inflation will be a problem and individuals who want a hedge against it will continue to buy gold.

It pays to keep in mind that 12.9 million ounces is less than $13 billion. The American money supply, measured at its most basic level, currency in circulation, is nearly $1 trillion and annual economic output is about $14 trillion. This doesn’t even take into account the rest of the world.

Put in that light, it is hard to imagine the market having any difficulty absorbing the gold.

There are good reasons to buy or sell gold. The IMF’s possible gold bullion sale should not affect any of them.

Here I thought I was lucky. For the first time this winter, I successfully transited Chicago O’Hare airport without delay yesterday. But then, to bring the universe back into balance, my office computer this morning was moving very slowly.

I guess I should be grateful. It is Monday and slow is better than completely locked up.

For me, this week will see me watching the price of silver. I know that platinum is moving like a rocket because of electricity shortages at mines and smelters in South Africa, but silver is in my blood as a coin collector.

The Coinage Act of 1965 is not just an historical landmark to me. To my generation of collectors, it was viewed almost as a personal affront. The act dared to take silver away from us. Sure, there were good policy reasons, but the net result was the end of the circulation finds era of coin collecting.

It might be argued that had it been the Coinage Act of 1962, I wouldn’t be a coin collector at all. Could I have survived in a period as a kid trying to put a collection together when all there was to find in change was a single date for each denomination? I tend to doubt it. I had a running start of a few years to tide me over until I was earning my own money and could buy pieces from time to time.

Had I shelved coin collecting or not attempted it at all, how would my life have gone?

Gosh, I might have become a doctor or a lawyer instead of a numismatic writer. Timing is important in this life, especially when something new is being attempted. Coins got into my blood early. Silver was and is a part of it.

How is $18 an ounce affecting potential newcomers and potential collectors? Any old pre-1965 silver coin is now worth almost 13 times face value as metal.

Timing means a great deal. If this is the time for some individuals to try coin collecting, what are they deciding?

I was joking with Coins Magazine editor Bob Van Ryzin the other day. I said, “Do you realize that 46 of the 50 states quarters have now been released. Doesn’t that make you feel old?”

He laughed. What made it funny is our shared memories. We were both at an internal Krause Publications meeting when Bob offered his observations on what the 50 states program would mean for our readers and our future as a numismatic publishing firm.

To say that Bob thought the impact would be big is an understatement. He knew it would be huge and if anyone in that room at the time had any doubt about it, it was dispelled then and there.

Well, here we both are now coming into the home stretch of a 10-year program. Who would have believed it? A decade seemed so long to look ahead. It passed quickly.

I often wonder about all of the state quarter sets started by kids that were left uncompleted as the years passed. Ten, twenty or thirty years from now they will come back to these sets and some will then try to finish them. They will go on to enjoy a fruitful hobby career.

But then that is something Bob expected at our meeting a decade ago and that is no joke.

A new one-ounce silver bullion coin has been introduced by Austria. It features essentially the same design as appears on Austria’s gold Philharmonic series. It is a beautiful and familiar design.

I was able to see the new coins up close at the Austrian Mint booth in Berlin. Unfortunately, I did not buy one. I should have.

I know the coin will soon be as easily available in the United States as the gold pieces are, but I missed my chance at bragging rights, to donate a catalog plate coin, or to be the first person on the block to have one.

I am sure what I could have done with it would have more than made the purchase price well worth the spending. Besides, it would always be one troy ounce of silver. That’s not a bad thing to own these days.

Steve Bieda, a Michigan hobbyist and  member of the state’s legislature wants to crack down on advertisements for questionable coins from questionable countries.

Many collectors would laud his attempt at consumer protection. They see red when coins from the Marshall Islands can’t be redeemed when taken to the Marshall Islands.

However writing law is a tricky thing. It has to apply equally to everybody and to every country. You might want to take aim at one, but you likely will hit unintended targets.

If the news story I read is accurate, the broad brush of the law would make it illegal to advertise that the European Union’s euro was legal tender in Michigan without a disclaimer that it “cannot be exchanged or redeemed at face value for U.S. currency in the United States.”

The five-euro note and the 50 euro cents coin I had left in my pocket when I came back from Berlin are not readily exchangeable for U.S. money for face value though they are legal tender all the same. I know. I spent way too many euros while I was in Germany. The question isn’t legal tender status, it is the cost of using the banking system to make foreign exchange transactions.

The new commemorative two-euro coin introduced by Germany is legal tender, but I wouldn’t want to attempt to exchange one for U.S. currency. That’s why some airports have donor boxes for good causes. It is well known that coins and small bills cannot be redeemed because the fees involved far exceed the face value. Tourists make the best of it and give to good causes as a result.

Some people can be misled by claims of legal tender. That’s not a point I would disagree with. It is sad to think that numismatics would now mark coin related items like we do stepladders.

Perhaps we should ask foreign countries for edge lettering on all of their coins saying, “This cannot be spent in the United States of America.”

How will you spend your tax rebate from the federal government? Will you throw it into your monthly expenses and watch it disappear, or will you set it aside for a special numismatic purpose?

Sure, spouses and significant others will have something to say about how the money gets spent, but the beauty of the rebate is that it is given out on a per person basis.

If your spouse doesn’t like what you intend doing with it, well, they have money, too.

I’m not trying to start a domestic argument. I just wonder if collectors this year can dream a little bit about what they will do with an extra $600.

Part of the freedom of being a hobbyist is to be able to daydream about what should to be acquired next.

For most collectors, a $600 increase to their hobby budget represents a sizable percentage increase, so the sense of possibilities is significant.

The checks are scheduled to arrive in May, so there is plenty of time to think about good uses for the rebate. Even if it ultimately goes to the auto repair shop, the weeks of daydreaming about numismatic uses will make it all worthwhile.

Where will the first sellout lightning strike in 2008? I received some statistics from the Mint yesterday. They showed that a number of previously popular items are just not moving like they used to.

Take the Dolley Madison First Spouse gold coin. It has been for sale since Nov. 19. It likely will still be for sale when Elizabeth Monroe becomes available Feb. 28. The rising price of gold caused the Madison coin to be priced higher than the first three that sold out. The Monroe coin’s price has not yet been revealed. If it is much higher, that could further impede sales.

In any event, the Madison First Spouse proof has seen sales of 14,692. The Madison uncirculated coin has sold 9,772. Sales will continue until the combined mintage reaches 40,000.

Then there is the 10th anniversary platinum set. Some 30,000 are available. But in two months’ time since the set went on sale Dec. 13, collectors have purchased only slightly more than half at 17,753. Sales are further complicated by the fact that the Mint has suspended them to reprice, due to the soaring price of platinum, which has hit $2,000 a troy ounce.

Bald Eagle commemoratives have been on sale since Jan. 15. A three-coin proof set is approaching its limit of 25,000. As of Feb. 13, some 23,991 sets were sold. This doesn’t mean that the coins are scarce, only the package. The coins themselves can easily be ordered individually.

What new issues will catch the fancy of collectors in 2008? We are still waiting to find out. Perhaps it will be the new fractional Buffalo gold coins later this year. Stay tuned.

Platinum at $2,000 an ounce got the attention of precious metal investors yesterday. It did not close there. It went into the daily logbook as closing at $1,983.70.

The metal has been swept along by news of output shortfalls in South Africa because of an electricity shortage.

Platinum still remains exotic to most coin collectors, who are more comfortable with silver and gold.

I had a conversation with a dealer yesterday who said that “dealers were quoting soft.” What that means is that they are worried that a sudden downdraft might catch them with bullion in their hands and they are factoring in an extra margin as insurance against such a possibility.

The dealer also told me that a couple had commented that they had tried other dealers to sell what they had. The implication being that there is some reluctance to buy out there.

Now I don’t know who the couple called. It might have been the local plumber for all I know, so this story has to be taken with a grain of salt.

Anecdotes, however, can paint a picture for us.

On Tuesday I was asked by an employee here at Krause if now would be a good time to buy some silver. At more than $17 an ounce, I am a little leery about encouraging people to jump in. What the experience tells me is that the upward trend has now gone on long enough that it is getting the attention of people who don’t ordinarily get involved in metals investing.

This anecdote doesn’t mean metals are now at their peak, but in my mind, with my memories of 1980, it might be a caution flag. Back in 1980 we had another nonmetals person here buy silver at the precise top of $50 an ounce. It became part of our coffee break lore.

Don’t be the person who gets talked about for the next few years as having bought at the top. Buy wisely. Don’t be reckless.

James Monroe’s dollar coin makes its debut today at the estate of our fifth President. When the coin appears at Ash Lawn-Highland, Monroe’s home in Charlottesville, Va., collectors of an historic frame of mind might think of the Monroe Doctrine as this President’s legacy.

Certainly the preservation of the freedoms won by the newly independent nations carved from the Spanish Empire is a signal historical achievement and is probably the appropriate legacy to reflect on.

However, there might be something instructive for Americans of the present day. This is an election year. Monroe ran for President virtually unopposed in 1816 and 1820. His party, what is now the Democratic Party, had thrived since Jefferson won the presidency in the election of 1800.

The Federalists, on the other hand imploded. They were even tarred with the brush of treason because a number of them met in Hartford, Conn., in late 1814 to oppose the War of 1812 and to float the idea of secession by New England states. This happened just before the victorious Battle of New Orleans in early 1815 and news of the peace treaty signed at the end of 1814. Americans were not pleased. The Federalists were never a serious party again.

Monroe dollars will be available through the banking system tomorrow and the Mint will sell rolls and bags. The 25-coin rolls are $35.95. The 250-coin bags are $319.95. There is a $4.95 shipping charge applied to each order.

The Mint can be contact at the Web site, www.usmint.gov, or by telephone at (800) USA-MINT.

The tornadoes in the South have affected the Mint's ability to ship product. A statement was sent to me to explain. It follows below:

Severe  Storm  Impact On United States Mint Order Fulfillment
February 8, 2009
 
The severe weather that struck five Southern states on Monday, February 5, caused severe damage to the United States Mint’s contractor-operated fulfillment center in Memphis, Tenn.    
 
Although the roof of the facility sustained damage from debris, luckily no one working in the building was injured.
 
The fulfillment center, as well as surrounding buildings, is still without power. 
 
Clean-up operations inside and outside of the facility are ongoing.
 
The United States Mint’s assets are secure and are being protected 24/7.
 
Because of the tornado damage, we expect that the United States Mint will be unable to ship products from its fulfillment facility in Memphis for the next one to two weeks.
 
We believe we are fortunate that this disaster will mean only a short period of inconvenience to our numismatic customers, and we extend our deepest sorrow and support to those whose lives or loved ones have been more seriously affected by this catastrophe.

The Call Center in Plano, Texas, was not affected by the severe weather and continues to operate.  We will continue to take orders through all channels while shipping is suspended.

Circulation finds have been a popular topic for the 45 years I have been a collector. In my early years, they formed the core of my collection.

The introduction of clad coinage in late 1965 was the beginning of the end of this pastime as the backbone of the hobby and by 1969 about all you could find in change were coins from the prior 10 years. In the case of the formerly silver coins, the variety was even less.

However, the urge to look at my change has never left me. I still do it. Actual finds are few and far between. However I note the introduction patterns of new coins. I keenly wait for my first look at a 2008-dated coin. Readers began reporting finds of 2008 cents and nickels in late January.

People worrying about the state of the economy can have one more thing to worry about. In a boom, the new dates come out practically as the nation puts away its New Year’s party hats. In slow times, the coins come out later.

This year’s release seems to be coming somewhere between the two extremes, but somewhat closer to the bust side of the continuum than the boom side.

While in Germany I noticed the pull of circulation finds. There was a long line at the booth that offered to sell for face value the 2-euro circulating commemorative for Hamburg. To get an example of the coin from each of the five mints, the public was asked to pay 10 euros, or face value.

I probably should have joined the line, but I did not.

It is nice to witness the appeal that basic circulation coinage still has on people. It is too easy to get wound up about chopmarked Buffalo gold pieces or 2007-W American Eagles. I am not saying these precious metal coins are bad issues. They are not. But to better appreciate the special coins, maintaining roots to circulation coinage is important.

Some of the 2-euros given out might have been MS-70, but I expect that there wasn’t a single person in that line who was thinking about American grading precision. It was just the collector impulse to get the coins that form a complete set at a great price. There is no more important collector impulse than that. 

The pizza is about to arrive. It is 6:05 p.m. on Monday. I am stranded in Chicago with three colleagues who had also attended the World Money Fair in Berlin. We are at a Hampton Inn in Schiller Park. Our flight out tomorrow will mean I am in motion at the usual posting time for my blog.

I am hungry and sleepy but very satisfied with the experience in Berlin. It is shocking to see prices in euros. Just about everything is expensive from an American point of view, but as one person I spoke to said: "You should see Paris." I made no reply at the time, but if that is the case, I will have to say something like, "Maybe next year." Berlin prices were enough for my delicate fiscal sensibilities. That and I don't need to see any sausages again for a while.

I hope to get a good night's sleep, get home and perhaps get a half a day put in at the office Tuesday. Fortunately, the Krause team has been posting material right along as it happened. I hope you have taken advantage of the on-the-spot reporting to find out what happened in the mint master capital of the world. We also shot video while we were there and are looking forward to expanding our online reporting capabilities.

If it comes to my personal comfort and convenience, 2008 has had a disappointing start. If it is your comfort and convenience that matters as far as being kept informed of important news events, then 2008 has started well. The Krause NumisMaster online reporting team has done it just for you.

Well, there's the pizza. Gotta go.

The decision to give the World Coin News Coin of the Year Award at the World Money Fair in Berlin Feb. 2 was a good one. All of the recipient mints and central banks were present at the top level. The speeches were gracious. The atmosphere was warm and friendly. I hope you will take the opportunity to view the images of the event on NumisMaster.com.

A surprise guest was U.S. Mint director Ed Moy. He was able to come. It was a pleasure to see him there since the United States was a big winner of three category awards. The Most Popular and Best Trade categories were won by the Nevada state quarter. The Most Historically Significant coin was the Benjamin Franklin commemorative showing him as the mature statesman.

The ceremony was punctual. That is an important consideration for this show. Staff of the world’s mints are very tightly scheduled. Albert Beck, founder of the show, said 30 meeting rooms were in continuous use throughout the show.

We began serving finger food and liquid refreshments at 3 p.m. Dr. Beck introduced me to the audience at 3:15 p.m. As I noted in my opening remarks, events are well started when Dr. Back begins them. From that point on, the program was in my hands. It clicked along, concluding at 4 p.m., to allow those on a tight schedule to leave for their next appointments. Others of us were able to stay and visit with each other.

The top winners were Canada and Hungary. Canada won the top Coin of the Year Award for a set of four $50 palladium coins showing the Big Bear and Little Bear constellations in seasonal positions in the night sky at 10 p.m. in Ottawa, as Ian Bennett, the president of the Royal Canadian Mint explained. Hungary won the People’s Choice Award for a 50 forints made of base metal that commemorates the 50th anniversary of the Hungarian Revolution of 1956.

There was a Hollywood premiere aspect to the event with the photographers present. Latvia brought a video cameraman to record the whole ceremony. Latvia took home the trophy for the Best Contemporary Event coin for its l lats coin marking its fight for freedom in 1918.

There is not enough time or space to list all of the winners here, so visit the Web site presentation at www.Numismaster.com.

Congratulations to all the winners. I am catching a morning plane today with my three colleagues. It has been good to be in Berlin, but I am looking forward to going home.