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 Friday, April 09, 2010
Half dollars rarely in my thoughts
Posted by Dave
I don’t find myself thinking about half dollars very often. They are almost never seen in circulation. If I happen to get one it is because someone at the Crystal Cafe was short of funds and happened to spend one for coffee.
My habit if I get a half dollar in change is to immediately turn it around by leaving it as part of the tip. I really don’t want to take it home.
There are so few uses for half dollars. They are not spendable in the average vending machine, so I cannot buy a morning coffee here in the break room with it.
The Mint, though, still sells rolls and bags of the coins and even though totals are small, there are some collectors who continue to buy them.
I bought a bag back in 2002. I wanted to see what might be in it. There really was nothing of interest in it for me, so over time, they gradually found their way into circulation. Yes, I took the loss for the amount I paid over face value, but that was better than storing the bag for the rest of my life.
So far this year, 4,072 bags of 200 coins have been sold. The price is $130.95 plus the $4.95 shipping charge. This gives the Mint revenue of more than $550,000. There have been 21,101 two-roll sets sold, which yield the Mint another $800,000 in revenue.
Of the roughly $1.35 million of revenue so far this year, about half a million is the amount over the face value of the coins sold.
That’s not a bad small business profit margin. And, the best part for the government is the face value of the coins is like a permanent loan to help keep the Treasury solvent.
So collect away from the Mint’s point of view, and any buyers of these coins out there please tell me what appeals to you about these half dollars.
Friday, April 09, 2010 2:16:09 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00) 
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Thursday, April 08, 2010
More coins mean better times
Posted by Dave
If rising coin production signals good news for the economy as I have observed over the years, then the March production numbers of the U.S. Mint confirm that conditions are on the upswing.
The Mint nearly doubled its output in March as compared to February, from 194.4 million coins to 384.42 million pieces.
Collectors who have been scrambling to try to find examples of the four 2009 cent designs and then the new Union Shield design that was introduced this year can probably relax about the 2010 design.
Production of the 2010 cent doubled in March to 294 million pieces between the Philadelphia and Denver Mints and for the first three months of the year 572 million Union Shield cents have been struck.
If the March monthly pace were maintained for the rest of the year, more than 3.2 billion cents would be produced. If the quarterly pace is used instead, the the annual total would be approximately 2.3 billion pieces.
Either number would likely make it fairly easy to find examples in change. Also, as reports to me about 2010 cent finds around the country multiply, interest in the coins will probably drop.
That is the paradox. If you can’t find them, interest is high as is indignation. If they are everywhere, interest turns to the next hot item.
In any event, let’s hope the pace of coin production keeps rising because that means all of us will likely have a few more dollars of income to spend on our favorite hobby.
Thursday, April 08, 2010 1:35:42 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)
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Wednesday, April 07, 2010
Boy Scout sellout nearer, but not yet
Posted by Dave
If you missed the opening of sales for the new Boy Scout silver dollar commemoratives March 23, you still have time to order what you would like, but it is best you don’t delay further.
The latest weekly numbers show that the Mint has sold 266,517 of the coins through April 6. Sales during the prior week rose by 51,844. With a ceiling of 350,000 coins, that leaves the Mint 83,483 coins left to sell.
If sales follow the usual pattern, the coins will stay available for roughly another two weeks.
Should the eBay posse decide that a sellout is assured and a stampede ensues, the sellout point can be just days away.
If you are simply a collector who wants to put the new coins in your collection, it is best to get your order in and don’t worry about which day the sellout might occur.
There are some people who watch sales figures for weeks or months on end, depending on the program, and then decide at the last minute to buy – I assume they believe they will make a profit, or at least own something desirable.
Sometimes they miss the deadline. Then they complain to me.
Sitting on the fence can have consequences. If you want the coins, buy them.
Wednesday, April 07, 2010 2:01:21 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)
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Tuesday, April 06, 2010
Out of darkness thoughts of Lincoln rolls
Posted by Dave
It was a small triumph to get into work this morning. The power went out last night in the Village of Iola. It is still out. It certainly is no fun shaving in the dark.
The funny thing is we made it through the winter without the least disruption and other than a little bit of rain (without either thunder or lightning) there is no weather event to blame the situation on.
Once I got into the office, I found it to be functioning on back-up power so I can get my blog posted.
Before all the adrenaline kicked in this morning when I discovered the alarm clock had stopped in the middle of the night and it was later than I expected, I had been thinking about the April 8 opening date for sales of two-roll sets of the new Union Shield Lincoln cents.
The price is the same as it was last year for the Lincoln Bicentennial coins, $8.95 for an uncirculated roll of “P” mint coin and an uncirculated roll of “D” mint coins sold together.
Then, of course, the $4.95 shipping charge must be added.
This offering, I think, would have been much more warmly received in January when I was getting word of the first cents being found in Puerto Rico.
Now we are into the fourth month of the year and I am getting reports of the Union Shield cent being found in the usual way in circulation. Perhaps that means the economy is indeed recovering and banks are getting supplies of new coins.
In any event, I would expect demand for the new cent to be lower than demand for the 2009 issues. Everybody knows there is only one design this year, so there is not quite the same sense of urgency to get the design before it disappears. There is still the first year of issue impulse, but how strong is that after last year's four designs?
How good is this forecast of lower collector demand for 2010 cent rolls? Well, I’ve been doing a lot of thinking in the dark today. That should tell you something.
Tuesday, April 06, 2010 2:11:12 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)
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Monday, April 05, 2010
Join the ANA family
Posted by Dave
The weekend was family time for many Americans, myself included. Conversations went one way and then another. There was the new baby coming in October. Kids are going back to school today after time off. There was the talk of tickets to a baseball game in Milwaukee today and the Boston-Cleveland basketball game that was playing in the background.
None of these conversational topics would or even should make headlines. What makes them important is that they all are part of family news.
This morning I was thinking of this and a comment Tom Post, the show general chairman of the American Numismatic Association convention in Fort Worth, Texas. made to me a week ago.
Tom did a superb job. If there were any glitches, I didn’t see them or hear of them.
But in a quiet moment Tom and I were just chit-chatting. He said that before 2009 he had never been to an ANA convention. That startled me a bit.
He was no stranger to coin shows generally, so it is not like he had to take a crash course in numismatics.
I’m a regular at ANA events. It is my job. Other regulars have to pay their own tabs and yet I see them show after show, year after year.
There are many conversations that occur at ANA conventions that don’t make the headlines. They are the numismatic version of family gatherings.
These conversations tie many people together in many small ways much as a family is tied together. That’s what makes attendance at these events so important. Certainly not everyone has the free time or money to attend every convention, but every collector should consider going to an ANA at least once to see what the experience is like.
You never know, it might lead you to become a regular, too. You might just find you have a numismatic family there.
Monday, April 05, 2010 2:17:18 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)
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Friday, April 02, 2010
Glorious past, bright future?
Posted by Dave
I see silver is approaching $18 an ounce again. I have lost track of the number of times this has happened.
About this time in 2008 silver was almost $24. It backed off hard and then recovered.
The $18 mark one dealer last year characterized as a wall. Antsy silver owners who were lured in when silver seemed unstoppable two years ago bail out at the $18 mark.
If you read online accounts of accusations of silver market manipulation, it makes you think that it must be time for another slam downwards to keep the $18 wall intact.
Whether it happens or not, we’ll see.
What I do know is interest in coins and, tangentially, precious metals is growing. A colleague in the antiques division of F & W Media wanted some material to do a story about coins.
Coins certainly do have an appeal. They are familiar. The are portable. And those made of precious metal tend to rise in value overtime underpinning the collectible values attached.
Perhaps antiques dealers are just looking for another source of cash flow. In this environment, many businesses are casting about for opportunities.
Coin collecting has been around in one form or another since the Italian Renaissance. Numismatic literature stretches back 500 years. The British Conder token issues of the late 18th century followed a path similar to new issue collecting today.
Date and mintmark collecting of U.S. coins goes back more than a century.
That’s a permanence that few areas can boast.
Check back on Pez dispensers in 50 years. Where will they be?
Friday, April 02, 2010 2:08:09 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)
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Thursday, April 01, 2010
Golden opportunity might be in paper money
Posted by Dave
What will the unveiling of the new U.S. $100 bill April 21 mean for the numismatic hobby? Will it mean anything?
The denomination was the first of the “Big Head” notes and after it arrived in 1996, there was a spate of stories about the lack of need for a change in design and how it looked like Monopoly money.
I remember running a story that showed the $100 with a Monopoly version and asked where the similarity was.
Nowadays, 14 years later, the basic idea that the Bureau of Engraving and Printing needs to stay ahead of the counterfeiters, both the casual color copier fakers and the North Korean super note fakers, is not questioned.
In consequence, we’ve seen designs changed for everything but the $1 and $2 since 1996.
For the hobby, changing the designs of the circulating paper money sparked a surge of interest in the older notes. Collectors multiplied. They bid up prices for paper money and this corner of the hobby boomed.
We’ve come down off the 2008 highs and perhaps this next change to the $100 will mark the next wave of changes for all denominations and the next wave of growth for paper money collecting.
If that in fact happens, collectors will look back on 2010 as a time they should have been aggressively buying collectible paper money.
What comes after the Big Head $100 might just be opportunity.
Thursday, April 01, 2010 1:29:21 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)
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Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Sellout in the making?
Posted by Dave
The new Boy Scout commemorative silver dollar has been available only since March 23, but already the total sales exceed those of the American Veterans Disabled for Life silver dollars.
As of March 28, the Boy Scouts dollar numbers showed the proof version at 144,732 coins and the uncirculated version at 68,941.
Combining the two numbers gives us 214,673 cons. The maximum possible sales is 350,000.
Sellout, anyone?
It sure looks that way.
Looking less and less like a sellout is the Disabled Veterans dollar.
At first glance, sales of these don’t look all that different.
Collectors have purchased 126,421 proofs and 54,631 uncirculated coins.
The combined total is 181,052. The maximum mintage is also 350,000.
The key difference is that the Disabled Veterans dollar has been available since Feb. 25.
Time after time it has been shown that collectors act quickly. There is an initial surge of interest and then that is pretty well it for the rest of the program.
Sure sales continue, but the rate of sales falls off dramatically.
The paradox of coin collecting is that numbers matter over time. If the Boy Scout coin sells out and the Vets dollar does not, then if the Vet mintage totals are significantly lower, the long-term value of the coin could then be higher than the equivalent Boy Scout coin.
Will it happen this way? As Yogi Berra said, “It ain’t over, ’til it's over.” That's what makes it so fascinating to watch.
Wednesday, March 31, 2010 1:59:42 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)
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Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Finally, evidence of actual 2009 cent collecting
Posted by Dave
I received a letter yesterday from a reader who wrote to tell me that he had found more than 130 of the 2009 Lincoln cents marking the 200th anniversary of the 16th President’s birth.
What makes the letter remarkable is that this is the first proof I have had that somewhere in the country (New York State) the 2009 cents are actually circulating.
Usually I get letters asking where the coins are and when will they circulate. Or, I get letters where the writer found a bank that had rolls and then bought some.
Actually finding the cents and collecting them one at a time, which in ordinary times many collectors would willingly do, is as rare as a hen’s tooth.
With the financial incentive to grab uncirculated rolls when they are found and then sell them on eBay, even collectors who might help spread them around find themselves contributing to the sense many people have that they are scarce.
Collectors can do this because the face value of every single example made totals just $23.54 million.
With the incentive to hoard and to trade being what it is, hobbyists have had no problem keeping many of the coins out of circulation.
When you look at the number another way to say that in 2009 2.354 billion cents were struck, you wonder how long collectors will feel that they need more than the eight coins necessary to have a full set.
That day will eventually come. The question is when. Now I routinely find Delaware quarters in change. In the months after the release of the first state quarter in 1999, there was a sense of scarcity. It has taken 11 years to dispel it.
So I guess in 2020 we can look forward to getting the 2009 cents in change.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010 2:01:59 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)
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Monday, March 29, 2010
Fort Worth show now history
Posted by Dave
It is always great to get home after an American Numismatic Association convention, especially when flights are on time as mine were yesterday.
The Fort Worth event was a well-run show with seamless logistics. The local volunteers and national volunteers can take a bow for that.
What of the market? It was mediocre.
Floor activity was reasonably good on Wednesday set-up and Thursday, but by Friday things died off. Saturday saw a rebound in numbers of people on the floor as more than 200 Boy and Girl Scouts swelled the registration numbers to over 1,800 for the day.
Dealers are somewhat cautious, buying material that they know they have clients for.
True collector coins are doing OK, but the high-end stuff has become just stuff. Having the second or third or fourth best known of some coins just isn’t the inducement it once was to make a purchase.
Buying coins to put in a future auction to get the top money seems not to be as rewarding as it was at the market activity peak in 2008.
Paper money dealers feel the market has bottomed out. The absolute top was the Central States Heritage auction in the spring of 2008. Dealers who are pricing at today’s levels are doing business.
Boy Scout commemoratives were being sold at the Mint booth for full retail. A supply was set aside to make sure there were plenty on Saturday when Scouts and their families arrived. As of Saturday morning 200,000 of a possible 350,000 coins had been sold.
Next ANA stop is Boston in August.
Monday, March 29, 2010 1:51:23 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)
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