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 Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Finally, evidence of actual 2009 cent collecting
Posted by Dave
I received a letter yesterday from a reader who wrote to tell me that he had found more than 130 of the 2009 Lincoln cents marking the 200th anniversary of the 16th President’s birth.
What makes the letter remarkable is that this is the first proof I have had that somewhere in the country (New York State) the 2009 cents are actually circulating.
Usually I get letters asking where the coins are and when will they circulate. Or, I get letters where the writer found a bank that had rolls and then bought some.
Actually finding the cents and collecting them one at a time, which in ordinary times many collectors would willingly do, is as rare as a hen’s tooth.
With the financial incentive to grab uncirculated rolls when they are found and then sell them on eBay, even collectors who might help spread them around find themselves contributing to the sense many people have that they are scarce.
Collectors can do this because the face value of every single example made totals just $23.54 million.
With the incentive to hoard and to trade being what it is, hobbyists have had no problem keeping many of the coins out of circulation.
When you look at the number another way to say that in 2009 2.354 billion cents were struck, you wonder how long collectors will feel that they need more than the eight coins necessary to have a full set.
That day will eventually come. The question is when. Now I routinely find Delaware quarters in change. In the months after the release of the first state quarter in 1999, there was a sense of scarcity. It has taken 11 years to dispel it.
So I guess in 2020 we can look forward to getting the 2009 cents in change.
Tuesday, March 30, 2010 2:01:59 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00) 
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Monday, March 29, 2010
Fort Worth show now history
Posted by Dave
It is always great to get home after an American Numismatic Association convention, especially when flights are on time as mine were yesterday.
The Fort Worth event was a well-run show with seamless logistics. The local volunteers and national volunteers can take a bow for that.
What of the market? It was mediocre.
Floor activity was reasonably good on Wednesday set-up and Thursday, but by Friday things died off. Saturday saw a rebound in numbers of people on the floor as more than 200 Boy and Girl Scouts swelled the registration numbers to over 1,800 for the day.
Dealers are somewhat cautious, buying material that they know they have clients for.
True collector coins are doing OK, but the high-end stuff has become just stuff. Having the second or third or fourth best known of some coins just isn’t the inducement it once was to make a purchase.
Buying coins to put in a future auction to get the top money seems not to be as rewarding as it was at the market activity peak in 2008.
Paper money dealers feel the market has bottomed out. The absolute top was the Central States Heritage auction in the spring of 2008. Dealers who are pricing at today’s levels are doing business.
Boy Scout commemoratives were being sold at the Mint booth for full retail. A supply was set aside to make sure there were plenty on Saturday when Scouts and their families arrived. As of Saturday morning 200,000 of a possible 350,000 coins had been sold.
Next ANA stop is Boston in August.
Monday, March 29, 2010 1:51:23 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)
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Friday, March 26, 2010
Thanks for the barbecue
Posted by Dave
With all the waiting this week for big announcements, it wasn’t until today that I could take a breath and comment on a special event. It wasn’t a big event. It was a nice event. It was an event that makes me think I am glad I am a collector.
The American Numismatic Association arranged a Texas-Sized BBQ at the Bureau of Engraving and Printing’s Western Currency Facility on Wednesday night. The one thing they couldn’t control was the weather. We all got a little wet in a downpour.
Nevertheless, it was a great time, because it was a very relaxed and social occasion for convention attendees who ordered tickets. It was a perfect opportunity to look the place over.
Despite all the attention we gave this BEP facility when it was built (starting in 1987), there are probably many noncollectors who don’t even know it exists.
That’s not surprising since many of them still think the Mint prints paper money.
But operations began in Fort Worth in 1990. It was built to diversify the production of paper money away from the single site in Washington, D.C., that was nearly hit by an airplane (by accident) before it crashed into the Potomac River.
I remember the accident that occurred as we were gathering at that year’s Florida United Numismatists convention and it was the talk of the day. I had to look up the date, though. It was Jan. 13, 1982.
It is nice to trump a memory of a tragedy with something pleasant and that’s what makes it worth commenting on.
Thanks, ANA, for making it possible.
Friday, March 26, 2010 1:04:07 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)
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Thursday, March 25, 2010
What will it be?
Posted by Dave
Today David Hall of Collector’s Universe will let us know what the “Big One” is at 10:30 a.m. at the Fort Worth Convention Center.
He has called it “the most important announcement Professional Coin Grading Service has made since we opened in 1986.” He also calls it a “revolutionary new PCGS service.”
Like ancient Gaul, there are supposed to be three parts to the “Big One.”
I will be present. As long as line drawings are not involved, I will be delighted.
The announcement is taking place at the opening of the American Numismatic Association National Money Show, so we will have plenty of time for reactions to percolate through the crowds of collectors and dealers as the day goes along.
What will it be?
Check out the Web site at www.pcgs.com.
Thursday, March 25, 2010 1:01:04 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)
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Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Five quarter designs revealed
Posted by Dave
 I have been asking the Mint for the new America the Beautiful quarter designs at least since last November, only to be put off until today. It has been a long wait.
There is probably something deeply ironic that after such a long time that what we get shown to us are line drawings at a special ceremony at noon Eastern time at the “Newseum,” which calls itself “Washington, D.C.’s Most Interactive Museum.” Yes, line drawings at an interactive museum.
We have to wait until the actual first quarter release April 19 to see an image of a coin.
Treasurer of the United States Rosie Rios is slated to be there for line drawings.
Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar will be there for line drawings.
Ed Moy, director of the Mint, will be present for line drawings.
Dayton Duncan, who wrote and co-produced the six-part PBS series, National Parks: America’s Best Idea, will also be there.
There might even be another dignitary or two.
I feel like the kid who blurts out to his parents on Christmas morning that whatever it was I received, I wanted something else.
But can you blame me?
We’ve waited a long time. Now, doggone it, we have to wait another month.
The program at the Newseum will feature videos of the five sites that will be honored in 2010.
We will see Hot Springs National Park in Arkansas, Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming, Yosemite National Park in California, Grand Canyon National Park in Arizona and Mount Hood National Park in Oregon.
With 56 designs stretched over more than 11 years, few collectors will likely remember that our first look at the new designs in the first year were line drawings.
What’s another month between now and the conclusion of the set in early 2021?
Maybe I am in training to be the new Maytag repairman.
Wednesday, March 24, 2010 12:57:05 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)
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Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Finish the set and earn the reward
Posted by Dave
I was working on new price charts for the 2011 edition of North American Coins and Prices.
They were created 20 years ago for the first edition and now with almost 40 years of data reflected by the movement of the graphs, they tell an interesting story.
Coin collecting by no means is the royal road to riches. Average collectors can expect that overall values keep up with inflation or stay just ahead of it.
The coins that make the headlines for record prices do not reflect what average collectors would be buying over time and so cannot be taken as a proxy measurement for the overall success of average collectors. One lesson that might be drawn is the bulk of the value of sets is in the key coins and it is the price appreciation of the key and semi-key coins that keep collectors ahead of the game.
A 1914-D Lincoln cent in F-12 has gone from a retail price of just under $50 to just under $400.
A 1921-S Buffalo nickel in F-12 went from about $30 to $190 in the same time period while a 1923-S half dollar in XF-40 rose from just under $50 to approximately $300.
These are coins that average collectors were buying in 1972. They don’t depend on scarcity of high grades to propel values. Besides, who in 1972 would have been able to buy what turns out to be an MS-66 or MS-67 today before that grading scale was applied to all U.S. coins? Certainly not the average collector.
Some average coins haven’t done well. An MS-60 1921 Morgan dollar has never recovered from its $40 1980-1981 high. It is now just over $25, though that is about double the 1972 price.
Not too many average collectors had a budget for gold in 1972, but those who bought a 1908-D Saint-Gaudens $20 without motto in 1972 paid a bit under $100 for it in uncirculated (MS-60). It shot up to over $1,000 in 1980, but then backed off and only in the last couple of years has exceeded that level, reaching over $1,500. That’s a nice return on investment if you held it all 38 years, but if you stampeded into the market in the gold rush of 1979-1980, the return is far lower.
What does that tell us?
Well, the key issue is to collect full sets, because you cannot know which coins in it will turn out to be the top winners.
Putting a set together without the scarce dates might be all you can afford, but doing so takes much of the financial gain out of it.
So rather than do multiple incomplete sets, zero in on one and do it to the finish. The odds then favor your achieving an ultimate financial reward.
Tuesday, March 23, 2010 1:07:24 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)
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Monday, March 22, 2010
End of coins at credit union or end of coins?
Posted by Dave
It is time to reopen the topic of the future of coins again as I received an e-mail from a reader.
Though he wishes to remain anonymous, he did want to share the information that the El Paso Employees Federal Credit Union will not receive or give out coins as of the end of 2010.
Will this prove to be a one-time event, or will other financial institutions also decide that handling coins is a waste of employee time and money?
Unless provision of coins is done on an industrial scale with major retail customers, many institutions could theoretically follow this example.
Where the line is between economical handling of coins and expensive hassle happens to be, I don’t know. Certainly in small towns like Iola, somebody has to make sure there are coins in the till – at least until retail businesses decide to abandon coins as well.
Great Britain is bubbling with the news that its banks want to abandon checks in 2018. What I have seen includes speculation as to how this will restrict the independence of the elderly, who depend on checks.
It may be simply a matter of technology and habit that will spell the end of coinage, but perhaps American antipathy to high denomination coins actually will hasten the day of demise as everyone realizes the low dollar value of a coinage system that is comprised of cents, nickels, dimes and quarters.
Sure, the halves and dollars exist, but if few individuals use them, they might as well not.
This credit union decision bears watching. It might signal a new trend.
Monday, March 22, 2010 1:14:04 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)
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Friday, March 19, 2010
Dark gold thoughts not dark enough?
Posted by Dave
Back when gold ownership was legalized in the United States on Dec. 31, 1974, there was a lingering fear that the coins that had been illegal to own since 1933 would once again become illegal to own.
Advisors told gold buyers to stick to coins like the standard U.S. gold coins struck before 1933 as well as world coins like British sovereigns and French 20 francs of similar vintage.
This seemed to be an unnecessary precaution as the age of the convenient one-ounce bullion coins was dawning.
The fear that gold would once again be called in by the government in a manner similar to what was done by President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1933 shows up from time to time in the writings in the blogosphere.
Can it happen again? Sure, the legal underpinnings for a recall still exist.
Will it happen? Probably not.
But if you happen to believe the government is cooking statistics to understate inflation and overstate employment, manipulating the gold market, hiding the fact that it has secretly sold all of the gold in Fort Knox (which is a rumor that has existed all the way back to when Ike was President) – if you believe all of this, why would you believe that the government would let you keep your gold if the worst does indeed happen to the economy?
If the American government would default on its debt after not doing so for 221 years through the Civil War, Depression and World War II, would not political pressure in Washington be so intense as not to allow profits to be taken by those owning gold?
In a dollar collapse, would not the authorities be rooting out gold owners with the same zeal as the IRS presently is chasing tax dodgers with Swiss bank accounts?
Would coin collectors get a pass as they did in 1933 because the Treasury secretary was a coin collector and the President was a stamp collector?
In their darkest thoughts, perhaps gold owners are not thinking darkly enough.
Friday, March 19, 2010 2:02:16 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)
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Thursday, March 18, 2010
Hop away from "bargains"
Posted by Dave
I started my day in the dentist’s chair, so I am a little late getting started in the office this morning.
As is the custom, I was visiting with the dental technician/hygienist who was cleaning my teeth between periods of simply keeping my mouth open as she picked, scratched and polished.
Her daughter has reached the point in her life where she has figured out that the Tooth Fairy doesn’t exist. The story of how she figured it out was interesting as every kid is different.
The technician figured that Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny would soon be toast as well.
That got me thinking about the numismatic equivalent of Santa Claus and the Easter Bunny.
What I came up with was the strong tendency among collectors to equate a low price with a good deal. Buying coins for 50 or 60 percent of the usual retail price has been the goal of some hobbyists.
While it is by no means impossible to score a deal from time to time, the appearance of being able to consistently buy coins for significantly below the prices printed in retail price guides should cause the would-be purchasers to have a flashing red light in his mind.
These coins might just be not what they are represented to be. They might be tampered with or overgraded.
Coin offers significantly below retail should be approached with caution. Have the coins checked out by a grading service, or make sure there is a return privilege in case it becomes necessary to return the coins.
Bargains are nice. They can happen. But when you see nothing but bargains think that it might be a case of the Easter Bunny – a delusion or fable, but without the happy ending.
Thursday, March 18, 2010 2:01:10 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)
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Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Census takes little information
Posted by Dave
As many Americans have, I received the 2010 census form in the mail this week. The constitutional mandate to take a census of the population every 10 years since 1790 has historically been used to offer a snapshot of the American people and their economic situation as well as family profile.
What a disappointment the 2010 census will be to future historians.
Other than the fact that the form confirms that my address exists and who lives there, there is nothing to sink your teeth into.
Future historians will not be able to compare one census to another to determine the advancement or lack thereof of creature comforts, or income level.
While future generations will probably not care if I have graduated to a wide screen TV or not in this decade, it seems like a waste of a good form (that records up to 12 people) not to ask some of the in-depth questions that made prior census results so interesting.
Who doesn’t like to read about the historical advance of indoor plumbing?
Sure, the Department of Commerce doesn’t ever ask the really important questions, like whether there is a coin collector in residence, but other information gathered in the past has its uses.
Now if they could just make the federal income tax form as quick to fill out, then we’d have something.
Wednesday, March 17, 2010 1:02:30 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)
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