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 Friday, November 13, 2009
Extra issue heads towards readers
Posted by Dave
This has been an unusually busy week because it was time for the State of the Industry issue of Numismatic News to go out the door. This extra issue was produced almost simultaneously with the regular weekly issue that went to press yesterday.
The staff here is having a celebratory pizza lunch to mark the occasion of getting both issues finished, among other things.
Though it is nice to share pizza, but the more important aspect is I anxiously await reader reaction to what we have done. The special extra issue, which is dated between two regular weekly issues, is intended to provide a bird’s eye view of what’s going on in the minds of dealers, collectors and leaders in numismatics as 2009 comes to a close and the prospects for 2010 are evaluated.
Aside from confusing the mailman with cover dates of Nov. 17, Nov. 20 and Nov. 24, with the date in the middle being the Industry issue, I hope readers will get a sense in that Nov. 20 package of what the decision makers are thinking as we move forward.
It is not a blow by blow account of what went on in 2009. It is not an almanac. It is intended to create a sense of awareness among the readers of the tone of numismatics.
Are we looking ahead to better days or are we headed for trouble?
I hope a majority of readers gain a useful sense of where we are from reading it.
I know it will not be universally praised, because nothing ever is, but I expect it will be better received than last year’s issue because it will be less of a surprise and not quite so unfamiliar.
One reader last year cancelled his subscription to Numismatic News because he did not perceive it as an extra bonus issue but as some sort of prototype issue for every single issue to follow.
That’s the risk you take for trying something new.
So subscribers should watch for it. Let me know what you think about it and what you are thinking about for next year.
Friday, November 13, 2009 2:11:49 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)
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 Thursday, November 12, 2009
Sink my teeth into history
Posted by Dave
I am late, I know. While the rest of the hobby was focused on the debut of the fourth Lincoln cent design for 2009, I was sitting in a dentist’s chair talking to the dentist about my next crown.
While it is wonderful to have a middle-aged memory, I can’t say the same thing about having middle-aged teeth.
I would much rather have been at the Ulysses S. Grant Memorial on the west front of the U.S. Capitol Building in Washington, D.C.. It would have been more interesting and a much more pleasant experience.
Mint Director Moy said this morning, “The fourth and final 2009 Lincoln Bicentennial one-cent coin design evokes the historical challenges of Abraham Lincoln’s presidency.”
Good point, but today I am thinking more about the 16th President’s teeth. There is a lot about George Washington’s teeth out there, but not about Lincoln’s.
Who cares about teeth? You are right. I’ll be better tomorrow.
Thursday, November 12, 2009 4:17:56 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)
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 Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Buffalo proof sales taper off
Posted by Dave
The latest weekly sales figures for the 2009 proof one-ounce Buffalo gold coin show that the rate of purchase by collectors has dropped substantially.
Some 8,487 were sold in the first full week of sales following the three-day onslaught that saw collectors scramble to acquire 19,468 pieces as sales began.
The total amount sold so far is 27,955.
By the end of the year will we see 40,000 or 45,000 of these coins sold?
It is probably too early to presume to know what the final sales numbers will be, but it probably isn’t too early to think that whatever the final number is, it will be significantly below the final number for the 2009 Ultra High Relief Saint-Gaudens $20, which is currently at 103,764.
If the Buffalo numbers run roughly half of the UHR numbers, will the coin be valued at a higher price than the UHR coin in future years?
Probably not.
Mintages are not the only factor in determining value.
Collectors forever onward will consider the UHR a desirable type coin and demand as a consequence will likely be forever higher than that for the 2009 proof Buffalo.
After all, if you want the type, you don’t have to buy the 2009 Buffalo, you can buy the proof 2006, 2007 or 2008, but you do have to buy the 2009 UHR.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009 2:12:28 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)
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 Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Fourth Lincoln in pipeline
Posted by Dave
The U.S. Mint’s production facilities returned to the usual monthly pace of production in October.
Some 353.38 million coins were produced, a rate that has been adhered to most months this calendar year.
The Philadelphia minting facility cranked out 200,000 half dollars to match last month’s Denver cumulative total of 1.9 million pieces. Denver did not add to its half dollar total and it still stands at 1.9 million coins.
Cent production indicates that there are 266 million of the new Presidency cents in the pipeline as the Nov. 12 debut ceremony nears.
There were 144.4 million Denver coins struck while Philadelphia cranked out 121.6 million.
Those online speculators who are selling nickels and dimes will be pleased to see the Mint’s coining presses were quiet in October where these denominations were concerned.
There also were no Native American dollars produced in October.
Presidential dollars on the other hand saw 24.22 million pieces flow from Denver presses and 10.78 million from Philadelphia’s.
The rate of quarter production more than doubled in October from September’s level, but this was simply to return to the rate of output that was achieved in August.
Denver cranked out 20.4 million quarters and Philadelphia produced 32.2 million in October.
Overall there is little sign in these numbers of a revival in coin demand to feed American commerce.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009 2:13:55 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)
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 Monday, November 09, 2009
Gold records and cents coexist
Posted by Dave
Gold went through the $1,100 mark fairly convincingly this morning and it certainly gives one pause to ponder the implications of the current value of the precious metal.
However, more interesting for me is the contrast that 2009 has provided for collectors. We have seen strong gold and silver prices all year long. The counterpoint, the contrasting point, is provided by the 2009 cents.
There has been incredibly strong interest in the Lincoln cent this year. Now Lincoln cents have always been popular, but that they should become turbocharged in a year when the major market action seems to be in precious metals is somewhat surprising.
Now we have known for years that 2009 is an anniversary year and expected an uptick in interest. What we didn’t know in 2005 when the legislation was passed to authorize the four new designs was how much higher gold and silver would go.
That interest in gold and silver did not eclipse interest in cents makes 2009 feel like we collectors have a lot going on.
Many collectors suspect that the general public is still unaware of the existence of the special commemorative designs this year. That means what is going on with cents currently is almost entirely generated by the collecting population. That is unusual and we should mark this year in our memories.
Can the current high level of interest in the cent be sustained or broadened to the general public after this anniversary year is over? That will be the key test. We are lucky in that there will be a new cent design in 2010 as well.
Even if interest falls away next year or some time down the road, the memories of what occurred in 2009 with the lowly denomination will be with all of us as long as we are collectors.
Monday, November 09, 2009 2:18:50 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)
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 Friday, November 06, 2009
U.S. Mint? Never heard of it
Posted by Dave
A number of collectors have expressed their disappointment about the Mint not striking the proof and uncirculated collector versions of the American Eagle gold and silver coins this year.
That is not a surprise. When you count on something, it is always frustrating when it disappears, even if it is only for one year.
But I am still contacted by people who do not know the difference between the standard issue American Eagle bullion coins and the collector versions of these coins, both the proof and the uncirculated “W.”
These questions usually are prompted by private ads on television offering the bullion coins for sale. The question inevitably posed to me is that if collectors can’t get their coins, who are these big boys getting theirs?
Either this means there are a lot of newcomers to the hobby and they have just joined us in this great hobby, or we have all done a very bad job in explaining the various Mint products.
A third possibility is that even after the paring that took place last year there are still simply too many products.
Now mere numbers of products do not necessarily mean there are too many. The American economy has many products of many descriptions, and people have no problem distinguishing them one from another and buying what they prefer.
This process is helped along in private industry by advertising.
A conclusion that might be drawn is that the Mint is spending too little on advertising or is not spending the funds it does expend in the right places.
Which might it be?
Friday, November 06, 2009 2:06:26 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)
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 Thursday, November 05, 2009
Collector gets a dream assignment
Posted by Dave
How would you feel if you suddenly found yourself appointed to the Citizens Coinage Advisory Committee and had to advise the secretary of the Treasury about new coin designs?
Every collector’s dream, right?
The newest member to the CCAC, Michael A. Olson, a Pella, Iowa, banker certainly embodies that theory.
The lifelong collector was appointed to the 11-member CCAC Oct. 23 by the Treasury secretary to a four-year term.
He was nominated by the minority leader of the U.S. House of Representatives. Olson talked to Coin Chat Radio for its Nov. 5 program.
Though he doesn’t remember what exactly sparked his interest, he began collecting coins as a kid in the 1970s. He built a collection of Franklin half dollars and perhaps unusually, managed to keep it through the high expense years of college and early family life.
Now age 46, he continues to be an active collector who visits Iowa area coin shows and club meetings on an occasional basis.
He likes the Presidential dollar series and points out that any purchase he makes that costs less than $10 is likely to be paid for with the coins.
Perhaps that is why the American Bankers Association made him a member and acting chairman of the Presidential Dollar Coin Working Group. As a collector and a banker, he clearly believes in his mission.
Olson also doesn’t want to put a foot wrong. He knows he will be working with 10 other people who have distinguished backgrounds and expertise, but he does admit, “It would be nice to have input while I’m on the committee.”
He is a lieutenant colonel in the Iowa National Guard and as such he hopes that there will be more military themed commemorative coins in the future, but is very low key about his personal design and theme enthusiasms. He doesn’t want to do anything to mark him out as not a team player.
Many collectors might not be so restrained, but that is probably why Olson has made it to the CCAC and been given the chance to help shape coin designs for the next four years.
I am envious. Aren't you?
Visit www.CoinChatRadio.com for the full program.
Thursday, November 05, 2009 2:04:08 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)
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 Wednesday, November 04, 2009
What is it about that Lincoln set?
Posted by Dave
I just received an e-mail from a reader who said until the Lincoln Coin and Chronicles set came along he had not ordered anything from the U.S. Mint for years.
“This set is superb and flawless. The set design is very impressive. I was ready to abandon coin collecting for many of the same reasons your readers have expressed in the last few months. This experience may change my mind.”
It is certainly impressive when one single issue grabs you and pushes you to an action that is the very opposite of what you have been contemplating.
What precisely was it about this set that got his attention? He didn’t say.
He could have ordered the proof Lincoln commemorative dollar by itself last March. He could have ordered the proof Lincoln cents as a set in August.
It took the combination to get him off dead center.
Was it the 50,000 number? Could it simply be the allure of something that might be scarce?
Packaging perhaps?
We will never really know. Every collector is different, yet every collector is the same. Something just gets under our skin so that we have to act.
Putting a collection together is simply acting again and again.
I wish him well in reconnecting with whatever it was that got him into the hobby in the first place. The Lincoln set is a wonderful first step in a walk back down that road.
Wednesday, November 04, 2009 2:03:23 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)
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 Tuesday, November 03, 2009
Buffalo orders start strong
Posted by Dave
Gold proof one-ounce Buffalo coin sales got off to a strong start.
In the first three days since orders began being accepted by the Mint on Oct. 29, collectors ordered 19,600 coins. There was no individual order limit imposed.
This number already equals the total number of the 2008 proof one-ounce Buffalo pieces sold.
It is possible that there are some fairly large orders in that total to help make the strong start, but offsetting that possibility is the fact that the Mint is not scheduled to begin its bulk sales program until today. I would expect the order numbers to jump quite a bit higher in percentage terms in the coming week.
Buyers paid $1,360 apiece for the privilege of owning the famous James Earle Fraser design originally used 1913-1938 on the Buffalo nickel.
To look at this initial order number from another perspective, I looked back at the opening of sales for the Saint-Gaudens Ultra High Relief gold $20. Collectors overloaded the Mint’s Web site and phone lines for that offering.
During the first four days Jan 22-26, sales of the UHR reached 40,727. Buyers paid $1,189 for those coins due to the lower price of gold at the time and orders were restricted to one per household.
Buffalo coin demand did not back up the phone lines or cause computer problems. Everything seemed to work as the Mint and collectors would wish it to work.
By my calculations demand averaged over 6,500 a day for the Buffalo as compared to the slightly more than 10,000 a day for the UHF. That’s pretty darn good for the fourth year of the design.
As time goes on, of course, the rate of orders will plunge, much as it already has for the UHF. Those first four UHF days generated 40 percent of the total sales so far. That is pretty concentrated and it is a buying habit that has been characteristic of collectors since I began ordering from the Mint over four decades ago.
Tuesday, November 03, 2009 2:18:27 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)
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 Monday, November 02, 2009
Sitting on top of the poll questions
Posted by Dave
Apparently I should never ask collectors if they had a good year if I want to get a large number of responses in the Numismatic News weekly poll question.
Fortunately for me and for readers of Numismatic News, those who did respond gave it some deep thought and spent some time writing answers that are longer than what the usual yes and no questions generate. The results went into the Nov. 10 issue that was mailed on Friday.
I am grateful to those who did reflect on this year. It has been a crazy one because of the financial crisis and yet the pattern of the last 10 months is not so very different from a typical year.
Collectors proved themselves to be resilient.
The poll numbers themselves showed that more than half, 57 percent, considered themselves to have had a good year.
That’s not bad if you wonder when the next bank failure, layoff or tax proposal will hit you between the eyes.
To generate large numbers of responses this year, it seems far better to ask whether collectors have an interest in purchasing something. Then the responses flow. This week’s question about the Medal of Honor commemoratives seems to already be proving this.
If I could have asked about Lincoln cents every week without boring collectors, that probably would have generated the most replies, for when I did pose questions relating to the new Lincoln cents of 2009, the answers just poured in.
Lincoln still has got that old magic over collectors. That’s a good thing overall even if there have been some sour moments at the long waits to obtain the new designs in circulation.
But that is all part of routine collecting. If it were easy to get everything all the time, collecting would lose much of its appeal.
And if it were easy to generate poll question responses, then those would probably lose much of their appeal as well.
Monday, November 02, 2009 2:09:06 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)
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