The "Buzz" Coin Blog with Dave Harper

The final 50,000 proof 2009 Abraham Lincoln commemorative silver dollars will finally hit the market Oct. 15 when the Lincoln Coin and Chronicles Set is placed on sale by the U.S. Mint.

Price of the set is $55.95 and there will be a five-set-per-household limit imposed. (Reduced to one, 9/29)

It has been roughly six months since the proof and uncirculated versions of the Lincoln commemorative silver dollar sold out rapidly. There were 325,000 proofs sold and 125,000 uncirculateds taken by collectors in just six weeks to bring total sales to 450,000 coins.

In contrast, sales of Louis Braille silver dollars are just over 165,000 after being on sale since March.

Overall, there is a limit of 500,000 on the Lincoln commemorative silver dollars, so the Chronicles set will have a maximum run of 50,000.

Potential buyers will be doing the math to see if a sellout of this final tranche of Lincoln dollars is likely and making mental projections as to possible profits from selling them on the secondary market.

If every buyer takes the maximum, it will take only 10,000 buyers to grab the entire issue. (Changed to 50,000, 9/29)

After potential buyers are done with all of their calculations, will they notice how good the set looks? I hope so. It is well done, but I know that art takes second place to calculations of scarcity.

In this Year of Lincoln, do you think this set will sell out?

Monday, September 28, 2009 2:06:06 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

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Friday, September 25, 2009

For mint sets, some things change, some things don't
Posted by Dave

When the U.S. Mint’s uncirculated coin set, popularly called the mint set, is released Oct. 1, some collectors will probably have the same reaction I did when they see the price.

$27.95.

That’s a lot of money.

The very first set I ever purchased from the Mint was the 1969 set, which was priced at $2.50.

Naturally, I can’t just let it go at that. There is always another way to look at things and the mint set is no different.

The set I purchased for $2.50 in 1969 had nine coins in it with a face value of $1.33. The face value works out to 53.2 percent of the sale price.

The 2009 mint set has many more bells and whistles in it in the form of commemorative designs. There are 36 coins in it with a face value of $14.38. That works out to 51.4 percent of face value.

That’s remarkably consistent pricing for sets 40 years apart.

This year’s hobby has been excited by the four Lincoln cent designs. Counting the coins from both mints, Denver and Philadelphia, that is eight pieces. And their alloy is that used in 1909, 95 percent copper, 3 percent zinc and 2 percent tin.

There are two nickels, two dimes and two half dollars.

The quarters add up to 12 pieces and the dollars to 10, four Presidential designs and one Native American dollar from each of the mints.

It makes the 1969 set shrimpy in comparison. But in 1969 we were just glad to have mintmarks back having just returned to the coinage in 1968.

There was an “S” cent and an “S” nickel. It seemed exciting to have that mintmark back, too, since San Francisco supposedly had closed coin production forever in 1955 only to be reopened to cope with the coin shortage of the mid 1960s.

The set also did not have a Philadelphia nickel in it, something that still confounds newcomers. That mint simply didn’t make nickels that year or in 1968 or in 1970.

The one half dollar in the 1969 set was from Denver. It had a 40-percent silver alloy. Collectors considered themselves fortunate to have any silver in the set at all, but were still disappointed at the loss of 90 percent silver coinage due to the Coinage Act of 1965.

Conflicted feelings? Sure. But still true.

Somewhere, sometime, somebody is going to have conflicted feelings about this year’s set and fondly remember buying it as I remember buying the 1969 set.

Friday, September 25, 2009 2:21:31 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

Comments [2]

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Take a 'Polk' at First Spouse series
Posted by Dave

The Citizens Coinage Advisory Committee and the Commission of Fine Arts have reviewed designs for next year’s America the Beautiful quarter series and the First Spouse gold coin series.

There are five different quarter designs to be issued in 2010 and four First Spouse designs.

What strikes me about the designs is not their quality or lack thereof. I will let you take a look at the story that gets posted a little later and the designs that go with it so you can make your judgments.

What hits me is simply a matter of timing. Next year we finally reach Mary Todd Lincoln, wife of the President historians often rank as the greatest.

The arrival of a famous name following a sequence of lesser known Presidents’ wives should help the series sell. Some rank the Presidents of the 1850s prior to Lincoln as the worst and almost the worst holders of the office. It is no wonder Americans know little or nothing about them. Average people know hardly more about the Presidents of the 1840s.

Put another way, if the series is to have any chance at all of reviving from the current low level of sales, it will be up to Lincoln to start the process of heavy lifting.

The wife of Ulysses S. Grant, Julia, will probably give a boost to sales in 2011.

Once we get to the 20th century, sales could also jump for the wives of Teddy Rooevelt, Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman and Dwight Eisenhower.

There are no guarantees, but familiarity is something present issues are lacking.

Sarah Polk, anyone?

Thursday, September 24, 2009 2:03:26 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

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Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Gimme an 'ant-swer'
Posted by Dave

Questions from readers are an important part of the weekly Numismatic News. These are so important in fact that the Coin Clinic question and answer column is one of the most popular features in it. This has been true for many years.

Questions that make me scratch my head do come up from time to time.

When I opened my e-mail this morning, this is what I found:

“I just received my U.S. Mint order of two 2-roll sets of the Lincoln pennies ‘Professional Life.’ Upon opening one of the white sealed boxes, a dozen black ants came crawling out. I have never had this happen to me before and was wondering if others have had this happen. Have you ever heard of this?”

Well, I have certainly never heard of this. That doesn’t necessarily mean it has never happened before.

Perhaps readers of bygone days did not think such an occurrence was worth bringing to the attention of other readers. I can’t say.

Another recent letter raised an issue I have never seen brought to the attention of hobby readers before either. The writer complained about the smoking laws in Illinois that allowed people waiting in line to buy the Professional Life cents for face value in Springfield to smoke.

Neither of these issues should have any impact on the quality of the coins received or affect their current and future value.

Is there any other deeper meaning about the long-term vitality of the hobby? I imagine I will puzzle that over for awhile.

Wednesday, September 23, 2009 2:05:44 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

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Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Consensus points to higher gold
Posted by Dave

I do not yet know how our weekly poll question results about whether gold has peaked out at $1,000. However, those individuals who took the time to send me e-mails with their views are almost unanimous that gold has further to go on the upside.

That is perhaps not surprising given the fact that it has been ascending since 2001 from the middle $250s an ounce. Those who bought then have made a lot of money in eight years.

Had we had the technology to conduct a similar poll in the weeks immediately before the high in 1980, the results would probably have been the same.

Similarity to 1980 does not mean that the present views are in error, but it is sure important to note the fact that nearly everyone who responded at some length holds the same view.

Even this week’s issue of Barron’s, which usually covers Wall Street, was bullish on gold.

Someone who didn’t share the consensus view forecast a gold decline later this year rooted in another dip lower for the economy generally.

Will this overwhelmingly positive majority prove to be right?

There are many people who seem to be both financially and emotionally invested in the answer to that question.

Tuesday, September 22, 2009 2:04:09 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

Comments [2]

Monday, September 21, 2009

Rest in peace, Rollie Finner
Posted by Dave

Rollie Finner died Friday at the age of 75. He was the husband of Patti Finner, current president of Central States Numismatic Society and former vice president of the American Numismatic Association.

A visitation/wake occurred yesterday afternoon at their home in Iola. It was Rollie’s wish to do it that way. He had a long battle with cancer and he hoped his family and friends would feel better in familiar surroundings.

The coffin was placed in the living room not far from the chair I last saw him sitting in in August.

Rollie came to Iola in 1969 in the way many of us have. Chet Krause hired him. He was working at the time at Carleton College in Northfield, Minn.

Chet liked Rollie’s photography and wanted to see his photos in Numismatic News. Photo pages were the result.

Rollie had a 28-year stint in the National Guard and his photos in service were award winners.

As might be expected, in addition to family, friends and neighbors came to pay their respects. Current and former employees of Krause Publications were among them.
Chet Krause himself also came as did Larry Shepherd, executive director of the American Numismatic Association, and Carol Shuman, ANA controller.

Rollie moved on from Krause Publications in August of 1970, but he remained part of the Iola community and an avid numismatist. His papers and his interest stayed with him until almost to the end.

I think Rollie would be pleased if he knew who came for the wake and the nature of the conversations. Sadness is unavoidable, but I think he was right, it was a much better gathering at his home.

The funeral and interment is at 11 a.m. today at Our Savior’s Lutheran Church Cemetery in Iola.

Monday, September 21, 2009 2:09:55 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

Comments [1]

Friday, September 18, 2009

Buy as many UHR gold coins as you want
Posted by Dave

Order limits come off on Monday for the 2009 Ultra High Relief Saint-Gaudens $20 gold piece.

For the first time since the coins went on sale in January, any buyer can buy as many from the U.S. Mint as he can pay for.

The limit had been set at one when the program started to assure the widest possible distribution among collector buyers. It rose to 10 in July and to 25 in August.

So at 9 a.m. Eastern Time Sept. 21, it is a whole new ball game.

What does this signify?

The Mint must now feel that it has enough supply on hand to meet all likely demand. But how much might that be? I don’t know. I heard talk by private collectors at ANA putting the final demand around 125,000. But how much credence should be put in talk?

This order limit change could also signify the program is winding down and this is the way of cleaning out the pipeline. The Mint does this at the end of commemorative programs. That would confirm ANA chatter.

This possibility seems less likely than the first because it is only September and the maximum mintage limit for the entire program was set at 300,000. Buyers haven’t even hit the 100,000 mark yet.

However, if the program is winding down, what would that signify?

Perhaps ending the program early would be the mechanism to free up gold bullion to be made into blanks for the proof American Eagle program. That’s another program that is leaving collectors in an expectant mood.

Gold has given the hobby an exciting time in recent months, but the downside is that there are more questions than answers.

Anybody who is interested in getting an example of the UHR gold coin should probably think about purchasing it now. Why take a chance in being disappointed if you really do want one?

If you happen to want 10,000, you can probably have them, too.

Friday, September 18, 2009 2:17:57 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

Comments [2]

Thursday, September 17, 2009

Personal hobby interaction still matters
Posted by Dave

I had an conversation with Jon Lerner for tomorrow’s Coin Chat Radio program. He is the bourse chairman of Coinfest, which will be held Oct. 9-11 in Stamford, Conn.

What I found most interesting about our conversation was at the point I was asking him just how important it is to have face-to-face interaction of collectors and dealers in this age of the Internet.

For committed collectors, this personal knowledge is still critical in many ways, perhaps not if you are looking solely to buy the proof sets issued since 1950, but to find out if there is a fit of personality and attitudes for the long-term building of collections.

In the history of numismatics dealers and collectors have built amazing collections together, but it doesn’t get done if one or the other’s traits rubs the other party raw. You might be able to get through a single transaction in difficult conditions, but the dealer for sure is not going to take a want list and start acting on it without feeling very comfortable with the other party.

What do I mean?

Lerner illustrated his comments at one point with an anecdote of a recent show. He had a junk box on his bourse table. Someone searched through it and pulled out a silver half dollar marked $5.

At the time, the silver in it was worth about $6. Lerner said he was going to let the potential buyer have the coin for the marked price until he said, “Will you take $3?”

Lerner said no and took the coin back without further negotiation.

Something as simple as this short personal interaction is enough to make or break any kind of profitable potential long-term commercial relationship.

So even in the age of the Internet, personal compatibility still matters.

Thursday, September 17, 2009 2:01:11 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

Comments [1]

Wednesday, September 16, 2009

More 1933 gold $20s to hit market?
Posted by Dave

Imagine if 10 more 1933 $20 gold pieces are about to become available to the collector coin market, what would they bring?

The only legal one sold for $7.59 million plus a $20 government monetization fee.

This exciting possibility becomes at least a little more probable because a U.S. District Court judge has given the government until the end of September to either prove that the 10 coins were stolen in court or give them back to the family of Israel Switt, a Philadelphia jeweler who died in 1990, according to a story in the New York Times.

What will the government do?

It is hard to imagine that the government will just fold after spending more than 60 years trying to enforce its view that ownership of 1933 double eagles is illegal.

Certainly many, if not most, collectors are rooting for the family to give the government a good poke in the eye. It seems like a classic case of David vs. Goliath.

Even if the government does give up this particular legal approach, it will have the fall-back position of dunning the family for overdue inheritance taxes on coins that are probably worth tens of millions of dollars combined.

With the IRS calculating penalties and interest, the family will probably owe another 10 1933 gold $20s.

Wednesday, September 16, 2009 2:05:35 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

Comments [2]

Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Brass or bronze? Got me again
Posted by Dave

I see on the U.S. Mint’s list of products that are coming soon that the annual uncirculated coin set now has an Oct. 1 sales date. This contains an uncirculated example of every denomination and design struck at both the Denver and Philadelphia mints.

Sales of the uncirculated coin set were postponed when the Mint had a problem with toning on the new copper-alloy cents, or I should write the old copper alloy cents.

The law authorizing the four designs for the 2009 Lincoln cents also requires that they be minted for collector sets in the alloy that was used in 1909, which was 95 percent copper, three percent zinc and two percent tin.

It is perhaps not surprising that a problem of this kind would have occurred. The Mint is out of practice with such an alloy. Collectors know how prone to toning and spotting cents are. That is why they are usually the first coins looked at in sets to see how well preserved the overall uncirculated or proof set is.

In this blog I did not call the alloy bronze as I did in August. Alan Herbert, the Answerman, e-mailed me about that.

He wrote, “95 percent copper and both tin and zinc can go either way. If the majority is tin, then it’s bronze, but if the zinc makes up more than 2.5 percent, then it’s brass.”

By that definition, the cents will be brass. This is a good example of why Alan is the Answerman who writes the weekly Coin Clinic question and answer column in Numismatic News.

So, will you be a buyer of the uncirculated coin set containing brass cents?

Tuesday, September 15, 2009 2:02:34 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

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