The "Buzz" Coin Blog with Dave Harper

Coin of the Year time
Posted by Dave

The nominating panel for the Coin of the Year Awards meets next month here in Iola, Wis. It will review submissions of 2008-dated coins for consideration for the awards that will be given at the World Money Fair in January 2010 in Berlin, Germany.

It is an interesting process, but in the first instance it requires that individuals and issuing mints make nominations and get them to us here at the home of World Coin News, the sponsor of the awards since they were first given in 1984.
Lisa Bellavin is coordinating these submissions for the panel. Her e-mail is Lisa.Bellavin@fwmedia.com.

Anyone can make a nomination in any form, but to be truly useful to the panel, please try to include an image if you can and as much of the descriptive information as possible: denomination, weight, composition, diameter, etc.
The fun part, of course, will occur when voting begins online for the People’s Choice Award.

But first, help us to assemble the list of choices.

Send in your nominations.

Thursday, August 27, 2009 2:07:27 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

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Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Whistling past the graveyard
Posted by Dave

Nobody likes bad news. Nobody likes to be tagged as the bearer of bad news. That is what makes it so hard to deal with the current soft market in coins.

The market is down from its peaks in 2007 and 2008. But it is hard to quantify.

Better coins simply stop trading when business conditions weaken. Those that do trade can still generate headlines.

Then the chorus sings, “See, the market is still strong.” But is it?

It is to make this determination that I await more definitive evidence.

I remember the serious recession we had after the peak of the market in 1980. We had an internal debate at Numismatic News as to what we should do with the coin prices listed in Coin Market.

Instead of outright price declines, dealers just refused to purchase coins.

Instead of saying it in some straightforward manner that they could not resell the pieces at current price levels and taking a pass, dealers began to say that the coins didn’t make the grades they claimed to be. Coins that were MS-65 at the peak of the boom were suddenly -64, then -63, etc.

This infuriated the owners of the coins. While they would feel the injury of not being able to sell some coins when they wanted to, they also suddenly felt the sting of being told in an offhand fashion that they somehow had purchased overgraded coins.

Thems fightin’ words in this here business.

Bad feelings multiplied. Dealers began haunting the room where the American Numismatic Association board of governors met. They were the official keepers of grading standards. They were finally forced to declare in 1985 that grading standards had changed.

This gave everybody a black eye.

Wouldn’t it simply be easier to adjust prices downwards in a slow market?

We didn’t in the early 1980s. I won’t hold my breath waiting for it now.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009 2:07:04 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

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Tuesday, August 25, 2009

What are you thinking?
Posted by Dave

Online communications are a wonder. So much information gets passed back and forth each day it makes my head spin. I couldn’t do my job without this medium.

However, the tendency to abbreviate certainly can make some things less than clear.

I had an e-mail the other day that had “Online subscription” in the subject line.

The text of the e-mail was simply:

“.......?”

Was this an inquiry from someone who wanted to subscribe to something? If so, to what publication? Perhaps it is Numismatic News, since that is what I am usually associated with, but it could also be World Coin News, or Bank Note Reporter, or Coins magazine, or Coin Prices. Or was it to one of our several e-newsletters?

Sometimes e-mail writers don’t make distinctions, leaving me with questions and not answers.

Was the message a criticism?

Was it something on the order of: “I didn’t see a way to subscribe on your Web site. Tsk. Tsk. Tsk.”

Hey, perhaps my mind isn’t agile enough for this form of communication.
So humor me, if you have a request, give me a little more to work with.

Tuesday, August 25, 2009 2:07:38 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

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Monday, August 24, 2009

Who wants the unc. version?
Posted by Dave

The Disabled Vets commemorative silver dollar was unveiled on Saturday by Mint Director Ed Moy.

They will be sold to collectors in uncirculated and proof versions when they become available in 2010.

This is not the first veterans related theme for the commemorative silver dollar series.

There were the Vietnam Memorial, Prisoner of War and the Women in the Military issues of 1994 among others.

All three have held up in value reasonably well. The first two are nicely above issue prices while the third is hovering just below issue prices. This is not bad for the modern commemorative series.

The keys are the uncirculated pieces. Their numbers are lower than the proofs.

Consequently, their prices on the secondary market are higher.

Will this spur hobbyists to order more uncirculated coins this time? I doubt it. There is something ingrained in the collector mind when it comes to placing orders for commems – proofs always attract more orders.

So the uncs of the 2010 issue will probably be outnumbered by the proofs by about two and a half to one.

Check back with me in 2011 to see if I’m right.

Monday, August 24, 2009 2:07:25 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

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Friday, August 21, 2009

How many sets will be sold?
Posted by Dave

Are you pawing the ground to get your order in to the U.S. Mint for the four-coin set of 2009 Lincoln cents when they become available next week on Aug. 26?

The price is just $7.95 each, making it one of the most affordable offerings this year.

However, there are only four cents in the set. If you figure the relationship of face value to price, you get a staggering 198.75 times face value – and that is without figuring in the $4.95 per order handling charge.

Will anyone be making that calculation?

Who am I to ask?

I didn’t think that so many people would think $8.95 was too much to ask for a two-roll set of Lincoln cents. Now I know better.

Perhaps mollifying that crowd is the fact that the cents in the set will be made of the historical bronze alloy that was used in 1909. That is 95 percent copper and five percent tin and zinc.

Even Alan Herbert, who is a purist in his description of bronze in his Coin Clinic column, will be happy with the return of the historical alloy as opposed to the more recently used 95 percent copper five percent zinc alloy that is brass.

See, Alan? You have managed to teach me something after all these years.
But now I have to go figure out how many sets of those proof bronze cents I want next week.

Friday, August 21, 2009 2:07:08 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

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Thursday, August 20, 2009

Stamp those Polk dollar coins
Posted by Dave

Remember the Presidential dollar? You would be forgiven if you said you don’t. They have definitely been put in the shade by the Lincoln cents this year.

We are suffering from the third-year curse of lack of interest and a run of Presidents who few remember, but that doesn’t mean they didn’t do important things.

Today, the James K. Polk Presidential dollar is formally introduced at 10 a.m. at the former President’s home in Columbia, Tenn.

Remember what he did? No?

Well, it was a little matter of leading the country in a war with Mexico 1846-1848 that resulted in the United States annexing over half a million square miles of territory in the Southwest and West, including California.

Abraham Lincoln, that star of the wildly popular cent, opposed the war and was chucked out of Congress for his trouble in 1848

Conveniently for the United States, gold was discovered in such large quantity in California in 1848 that it catapulted the place to statehood in 1850.

Oregon and Washington territories were also added to the United States.

Polk was the man in the White House at the time, but little of this history is likely to find its way to the public, nor will the coins likely find their way to their neighborhood banks.

Perhaps we should ask the Mint to stamp “CAL” on some of those dollars as was done on the 1848 $2.50 gold pieces just to create an historical parallel and perhaps a little bit more interest.

Thursday, August 20, 2009 2:06:47 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

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Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Slower start for cent roll set
Posted by Dave

The two-roll Professional Life Lincoln cent set went on the boards this week with an initial sales total reported by the Mint of 152,146. This compares to 200,055 for the first report on the Formative Years two-roll set.

Both numbers cover sales during the initial three days. In this case, from Aug. 13 when sales began to Aug. 16.

Does this mean that interest in Lincoln cents, or at least in this form of Lincoln cents, has peaked and is coming down?

Possibly.

Perhaps in aiding the process of drawing a conclusion one way or another is the news that the Formative Years two-roll set was taken off the market with sales totaling an even 300,000.

Since last week’s Mint Stats page reported sales of 300,246, the Mint is rounding down. Does that mean this number of orders has fallen through, or that there will be a few disappointed late would-be buyers? That I cannot answer, but with the usual credit card expiration snafus it is easy enough to imagine 246 sales disappearing.

Also, does this mean that the Mint has penciled in 300,000 as the ceiling for the final two offerings? Nothing seems to goose sales to collectors more than a ceiling. Still, that number is more than three times the 96,000 sales achieved by the Birthplace two-roll set in March.

Last week’s cent debut ceremony at the Old State Capitol in Springfield, Ill., came off without a hitch. There were collectors lined up to get the rolls offered for face value.

The line went by the area where the ceremony was held, so persons could watch without losing their place. That’s progress.

Now we watch for a while to see how sales results unfold and begin thinking about the fourth issue in three months’ time.

Wednesday, August 19, 2009 1:53:38 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

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Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Spend time, not money if necessary
Posted by Dave

During this recession there are probably many collectors who wonder about their hobby futures. It takes money to expand a coin collection. Money is in short supply either because of a lost job, or the insistence of a spouse that now is not the time to spend money on what might be considered nonessentials.

I would never make a case that a spouse’s wishes should not be respected. That wouldn’t be a smart thing to do.

While there might be a few bargain coins to be had at the moment if you are willing to spend the money to acquire them, the long-term health of the family is far more important than scoring a good deal.

If you find yourself thinking in these either/or terms. Stop. Think of this recession as the time to invest more time rather than more money in your hobby.

Teach yourself something new through books and periodicals. For example, if you collect modern half dollars, throw yourself into learning about large cents. Describe it as cheap entertainment to your spouse.

It does not matter what new area you pick as long as you pick something that will spur you to learn more about numismatics. It might be commemoratives or silver dollars that appeal to you, or even paper money or world coins. The possibilities are numerous.

No matter what you tell your spouse, learning is the opposite of cheap. It is very valuable. It prevents a hobbyist from being in an endless loop of mistakes. It forms the basis of a collection that retains and gains value better than random accumulations.

We all make mistakes. We all buy coins that are overgraded at one time or another because we missed something about them when we were considering the purchase. We all splurge on an impulse buy. That’s normal.

Education, though, channels this energy and interest in the most constructive way possible over the long haul.

If you are facing personal budgetary doubts, by all means rein in your expenditures of cash, but do not rein in your expenditures of time. Time spent studying now will pay off big time in your numismatic future.

The late Art Kagin often said to me that collectors cannot buy a coin every day, but they can read about them every day.

Take his advice and when good times return you will be ready.

Tuesday, August 18, 2009 2:09:46 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

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Monday, August 17, 2009

Still magic in 2014?
Posted by Dave

What will the hobby be like five years from now when more and more coins are graded MS-70?

One of the things that I learned at the American Numismatic Association convention is that the professional third-party grading services are staying afloat financially because of the their willingness to grade the modern coin series that then get sold on television or through direct marketing efforts.

The holy grail for the marketers is to get coins that they can turn around and market to people as the near magical MS-70 or Proof-70.

This effect occurs both at the top end of the market and the bottom. Part of the motivation for the run on Ultra High Relief Saint-Gaudens gold $20 gold pieces was the chance to get a few that will make Proof-70 and thereby command in the current marketplace premiums of hundreds of dollars over the $1,289 issue price that prevailed at the time.

This is what gives the dealers the profit margin to essentially pay people to stand in line for the coins at the show.

But this isn’t just a high-end phenomenon. It happens with issues like Presidential dollars. Each new design generates yet more submissions to the grading services. It is a wonderful profit generator for all parties to it – except perhaps the end buyer.

The end buyer in 2014 or 2015 will suddenly come face to face with the question: “What’s an MS-70 John Tyler Presidential dollar worth?”

If I want to be funny, I would say it will be worth more than an MS-65 John Tyler. But what exactly is that value?

Coins are valued according to supply and demand. If demand exceeds supply, prices rise. If supply exceeds demand, prices either fall or stabilize. I can write stabilize because in a weak market, coins can simply stop trading and guide book prices can simply sit there for years until the next renewal of interest occurs.

What will thousands or even tens of thousands of MS-70 John Tyler dollars be worth in 2014? I fear much less than the buyers paid for them. Gold coins at least have a floor put under their prices by the gold bullion market. Presidential golden dollars will not have that benefit.

The lesson: If you like collecting Presidential dollars in the finest possible condition, great. Go for it. But if you are hypnotized by the sales pitch of buying the finest grade and paying a premium price that can never be recovered in the secondary market, you had better think again.

Monday, August 17, 2009 2:08:38 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

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Friday, August 14, 2009

Collectors who shoot their own feet
Posted by Dave

After being on the road to the American Numismatic Association convention for over a week, as might be expected it takes some time to catch up in the office.

There are the usual deadlines to meet. The Bank Note Reporter Paper Money Market price guide section went to press Tuesday. The September World Coin News went to press Wednesday. Numismatic News went to press Thursday. Today the September Coin Market price guide goes to press. I have roles to play in all of those. And then there are the e-newsletters and www.CoinChatRadio that I also contribute to.

Naturally, though, the biggest call on my time is to get Numismatic News out the door with as much space devoted to ANA activities as possible. I think it is important to give readers a flavor of what goes on at major shows. These are the basic commercial infrastructure of both the hobby and the commercial sector.

I know a majority of Numismatic News readers do not attend. However, having a working knowledge of who does what is useful in pursuing the coin collecting hobby.

Many hobby misunderstandings would not happen if collectors themselves would take in a show or two during the course of the year to become acclimated. To meet dealers face to face is important. To talk to hobby leaders about common problems is important. To get out there to simply buy and sell a little is important.

That is what makes the fully rounded hobbyist.

Of course, nobody makes you do that or makes you eat your vegetables. I can be just a blowhard pontificating on a Web site.

However, if collectors would do such things I would get fewer phone calls from elderly collectors who have never sold a thing and have no idea how to maximize value. They are virtually guaranteed to screw it up.

I have calls from collectors who are upset with dealers who will not take their phone calls. A little face-to-face show contact from time to time would do wonders for a business relationship.

I have calls from people who are not ANA members or even subscribe to Numismatic News who find themselves in unfortunate situations. Sometimes it’s their own doing. Sometimes it isn’t. They demand action.

The ANA and Numismatic News have limited resources. Do the math. Who do you think gets helped first?

Friday, August 14, 2009 2:18:50 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

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