The "Buzz" Coin Blog with Dave Harper

Still magic in 2014?
Posted by Dave

What will the hobby be like five years from now when more and more coins are graded MS-70?

One of the things that I learned at the American Numismatic Association convention is that the professional third-party grading services are staying afloat financially because of the their willingness to grade the modern coin series that then get sold on television or through direct marketing efforts.

The holy grail for the marketers is to get coins that they can turn around and market to people as the near magical MS-70 or Proof-70.

This effect occurs both at the top end of the market and the bottom. Part of the motivation for the run on Ultra High Relief Saint-Gaudens gold $20 gold pieces was the chance to get a few that will make Proof-70 and thereby command in the current marketplace premiums of hundreds of dollars over the $1,289 issue price that prevailed at the time.

This is what gives the dealers the profit margin to essentially pay people to stand in line for the coins at the show.

But this isn’t just a high-end phenomenon. It happens with issues like Presidential dollars. Each new design generates yet more submissions to the grading services. It is a wonderful profit generator for all parties to it – except perhaps the end buyer.

The end buyer in 2014 or 2015 will suddenly come face to face with the question: “What’s an MS-70 John Tyler Presidential dollar worth?”

If I want to be funny, I would say it will be worth more than an MS-65 John Tyler. But what exactly is that value?

Coins are valued according to supply and demand. If demand exceeds supply, prices rise. If supply exceeds demand, prices either fall or stabilize. I can write stabilize because in a weak market, coins can simply stop trading and guide book prices can simply sit there for years until the next renewal of interest occurs.

What will thousands or even tens of thousands of MS-70 John Tyler dollars be worth in 2014? I fear much less than the buyers paid for them. Gold coins at least have a floor put under their prices by the gold bullion market. Presidential golden dollars will not have that benefit.

The lesson: If you like collecting Presidential dollars in the finest possible condition, great. Go for it. But if you are hypnotized by the sales pitch of buying the finest grade and paying a premium price that can never be recovered in the secondary market, you had better think again.

Monday, August 17, 2009 2:08:38 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

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Friday, August 14, 2009

Collectors who shoot their own feet
Posted by Dave

After being on the road to the American Numismatic Association convention for over a week, as might be expected it takes some time to catch up in the office.

There are the usual deadlines to meet. The Bank Note Reporter Paper Money Market price guide section went to press Tuesday. The September World Coin News went to press Wednesday. Numismatic News went to press Thursday. Today the September Coin Market price guide goes to press. I have roles to play in all of those. And then there are the e-newsletters and www.CoinChatRadio that I also contribute to.

Naturally, though, the biggest call on my time is to get Numismatic News out the door with as much space devoted to ANA activities as possible. I think it is important to give readers a flavor of what goes on at major shows. These are the basic commercial infrastructure of both the hobby and the commercial sector.

I know a majority of Numismatic News readers do not attend. However, having a working knowledge of who does what is useful in pursuing the coin collecting hobby.

Many hobby misunderstandings would not happen if collectors themselves would take in a show or two during the course of the year to become acclimated. To meet dealers face to face is important. To talk to hobby leaders about common problems is important. To get out there to simply buy and sell a little is important.

That is what makes the fully rounded hobbyist.

Of course, nobody makes you do that or makes you eat your vegetables. I can be just a blowhard pontificating on a Web site.

However, if collectors would do such things I would get fewer phone calls from elderly collectors who have never sold a thing and have no idea how to maximize value. They are virtually guaranteed to screw it up.

I have calls from collectors who are upset with dealers who will not take their phone calls. A little face-to-face show contact from time to time would do wonders for a business relationship.

I have calls from people who are not ANA members or even subscribe to Numismatic News who find themselves in unfortunate situations. Sometimes it’s their own doing. Sometimes it isn’t. They demand action.

The ANA and Numismatic News have limited resources. Do the math. Who do you think gets helped first?

Friday, August 14, 2009 2:18:50 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

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Thursday, August 13, 2009

An other cent rock festival?
Posted by Dave

Will the Old State Capitol in Springfield, Ill., turn into a numismatic rock festival this morning as the one in Lincoln, Ind., did in May?

The third Lincoln cent design is scheduled to arrive officially at 10 a.m. midwifed by Mint Director Ed Moy and local dignitaries U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin and Mayor Tim Davlin.

Thousands queued up to get the second design in Indiana and completely ignored the formal ceremony. Many went through the line two and three times to get more cents.

I had an e-mail from a former enthusiast, who attended the Lincoln City ceremony early. This time he didn’t have a good thing to say. He wasn’t going to the third event at all.

Perhaps his illusion of vast fortune beckoning was shattered in Indiana. I can’t know for sure, but nothing seems angrier than a hobbyist who decides he has been deprived of speculative profit when it seems like others are getting it.

Taking the pressure off the cent release in Illinois are two other sales locations set up in Washington, D.C., one hour earlier (because of the time difference).

Collectors will be able to buy rolls of Lincoln cents for face value at Union Station and at the Mint’s headquarters building from 10 a.m. until 4 p.m. today. Next month the cents will be available on Capitol Hill at the Rayburn House Offfice Building.

Collectors who do not want to drive, can order two-roll sets online, but they will of course have to pay $8.95 each plus a handling charge of $4.95.

So is the bloom off the numismatic rose? we will soon see.

Thursday, August 13, 2009 2:04:31 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

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Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Eunice Shriver made a difference
Posted by Dave

Eunice Kennedy Shriver died yesterday at the age of 88. News of her passing evokes some memories for me.

The Special Olympics silver dollar of 1995 bears her portrait. In the debate over what the design should be for the coin, we in the hobby relearned something we probably knew generations ago but had forgotten: living persons can appear on U.S. coins.

The precedents were there. Gov. T.E. Kilby of Alabama appeared on a 1921 half dollar marking the centennial of that state’s admission to the Union.

The Sesquicentennial half dollar of 1926 shows President Calvin Coolidge during his term as President.

Shriver then appeared on the dollar as the founder of the Special Olympics, though the origin of the program was an athletic event in Chicago in 1968. Shriver took it up and made it international.

During the debate on the coinage, I wrote an editorial favoring the coin. It was a single silver dollar design, which I found refreshing. The Olympic program for the 1996 Games was going to be 32 pieces. That was at the height of the commemorative proliferation era when we in the hobby were recoiling from the excess. Imagine settling for just one coin.

It was a good cause. It was modest.

My support for the program also elicited two interesting telephone calls.

I was telephoned at home one evening by Sargent Shriver, the founding head of the Peace Corps and a former vice presidential candidate. He was also Eunice’s husband. He thanked me for my support. That graciousness set him apart.

A second phone call reached me in the office late one afternoon to help keep the universe in balance. The man from Pennsylvania was irate. Didn’t I know I was supporting a Kennedy? A Kennedy!! He canceled his subscription on the spot.

I never met Eunice Kennedy Shriver, but she obviously made a difference with her life.

Wednesday, August 12, 2009 2:14:21 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

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Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Fast start for Mishler at ANA
Posted by Dave

I had a telephone call from Cliff Mishler yesterday afternoon. He was in Colorado Springs, Colo., at the headquarters of the American Numismatic Association.

He was laying the groundwork for his two-year ANA presidency after being sworn in Saturday night and he wanted to fill me in on a few things. He also telephoned other media outlets to tell them the same thing.

Already he has a schedule for the board that board members can look at and plan for and so can I. That is something that I have never had in such detail before.
Consider the board’s schedule in the next 12 months.

There will be four face-to-face meetings and four telephone conferences.

The meetings will start with one in Colorado Springs Oct. 12-13. There will be executive sessions and public sessions. In recent years this has most often been simply executive sessions. Any open sessions had been dropped in at the last minute. Do I want to come? I have to do some pretty fancy dancing for my publisher to justify the last-minute expenses. Our budget, like many others, is set a year ahead of time.

The next board meeting will be at the Florida United Numismatists convention Jan. 8, 2010.

Then Fort Worth March 25-28 for the National Money Show and then the Boston World’s Fair of Money starting Aug. 11, 2010.

Board conference calls are already scheduled for Nov. 17, Feb. 16, May 11 and June 22. There will be public portions that I and others will be allowed to listen in on.

Mishler pledged to do as much business as possible in open session to even avoid an impression of doing too much in secret.

He admits that even in light of the many lawsuits that are currently in the process of resolution, too much business was conducted out of sight. He is working to change that.
I wish him luck. I think most ANA members feel as I do.

Has a new era dawned? We’ll see.

Now we have to stand back and let the new board function. I can write up a report card next year.

Tuesday, August 11, 2009 2:09:22 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

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Monday, August 10, 2009

Still traveling, mulling ANA observations
Posted by Dave

My trip to the American Numismatic Association World's Fair of Monday has taken an unexpected turn. I am sitting here this morning in a La Quinta hotel in suburban Milwaukee. I arrived in my room at 3:30 a.m. after a delayed departure from Los Angeles International Airport.

It has been a short night, so if you find any typos, I hope you can cut me some slack.

One of the most interesting happenings at the ANA was the repeated runs on the supply of Ultra High Relief Saint-Gaudens gold $20s at the U.S. Mint booth. Long lines would form in the morning to buy them and before the day ended, the supply would be gone.

This isn't something you would think would occur for a product that has been available since January, but it did.

The increase in the order limit to 10 coins per person presented dealers with opportunities to assemble a large supply quickly. They were paying people a $60 per coin bounty for the pieces. Intrepid individuals could earn $600 for their time standing in line by simply walking from one side of the bourse to the other with their 10 pieces. Even ANA award winners were spotted in the line.

Why would dealers be assembling positions in this coins? As it was pointed out to me, the coins are still trading at a premium on the secondary market, but the first stop with the new supply is the grading services. Finding a few pieces in each 10-coin lot that make Proof-70 will add significantly to their value. The rest of the coins can be bulked out for a small profit.

Buying coins one at a time through the mail just didn't make this type of thing possible.

Another thought that was expressed to me by a hobby observer was that since a 10-coin transaction was almost $13,000, it was a quick way to do cash deals without filling out cash transaction forms. Was that a motive? I don't know.

Whatever the case, it was interesting to see the Mint booth being the most active spot on the bourse floor.

Now I will turn my attention once again to getting home.

Wish me luck.

Monday, August 10, 2009 2:38:13 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

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Friday, August 07, 2009

Rosen wins top NLG award
Posted by Dave

Last night Maurice Rosen was given the Clemy Award at the Numismatic Literary Guild Bash held at the Wilshire Grand Hotel in Los Angeles during the American Numismatic Association World’s Fair of Money.

I would like to congratulate him.

The award is one of those delightful anachronisms in numismatics. Even though it is an NLG-sponsored award, it is also very personal. It is personal because the prior year’s recipient makes the decision who the next winner is from a list of nominees given to him by the NLG board.

Some years the award is kind of an “atta boy” given to someone who is prominent in numismatics. Other years it goes to someone who has truly worked hard on behalf of NLG. Rosen falls in the latter category. He has worked hard to make the annual literary awards process function. Those of us who participate in the competition year in and year out have every reason to be grateful for his efforts to assure a fair evaluation of our body work.

Rosen was selected by last year’s winner, Anthony Swiatek. Swiatek could not be present this year because he is recovering from surgery. David T. Alexander stood up in his place to extend the recognition. Alexander is a stalwart in the organization of the bash itself.

Rosen further made the award presentation unusual because he offered an extensive list of persons to whom he was grateful. It is not unusual to offer thanks, but the sheer number of individuals recognized was extensive. Those who were present in the room, he asked to stand up. By the time he was finished, I counted 15 people who were standing. Most of the people he mentioned were not present. He also cited individuals who have helped him over the years but who are now deceased.

It was a pleasant event with good food and good company. NLG was founded in the late 1960s by individuals who believed you could have some fun and comradeship while at the same time being serious professionals and competitors. In citing his list of thank-yous, Rosen reminded us all of the many talented people who have been active in numismatics over the years.

Friday, August 07, 2009 2:01:00 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

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Thursday, August 06, 2009

Ambassadors get up early
Posted by Dave

It was a short night for me, but I got up early for a good cause. Numismatic News sponsors an Ambassador Breakfast on the Thursday of every World’s Fair of Money. To get to the room at the convention center and to be ready to greet the more than 100 guests as they enter requires that I get there no later than 7:30 a.m. for an 8 a.m. start.

On an ordinary business day, that timing would be no problem, but at an ANA convention where it is difficult to get in the night before in a sensible fashion, the early morning hours day by day get ever more difficult to witness.

The breakfast is a tradition. The invited guests are holders of the Numismatic Ambassador Award, an honor that Numismatic News has been bestowing on the hobby’s volunteers since 1974. Today five more people will become part of this select circle as voted on by the current award holders.

Because the award is being presented in her backyard, Ginny Bourke should be mentioned first. She is heading up the exhibits at this year’s convention. Michigan’s Paul Cunningham, New Hampshire’s Bob Fritsch, Florida’s Tony Swicer and Canada’s Paul Johnson are the other honorees.

Accepting for Paul Johnson will be Cliff Mishler and Stan Turrini. Johnson, who usually attends the ANA summer convention could not attend this year because he is preparing the Royal Canadian Numismatic Association convention in Edmonton, Canada. Usually this convention is in July, but not this year. The fate that led to his getting the award somehow threw him a curve also, and he will be getting the plaque from the duo who will be attending RCNA. It doesn’t hurt that Mishler was the creator of the original Ambassador Award. I am grateful that he is available to take the handoff to present the plaque to Johnson in person.

Congratulations to one and all.

Thursday, August 06, 2009 1:58:13 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

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Wednesday, August 05, 2009

ANA provides beer to cry in
Posted by Dave

Impressions from the first day of a coin show are important. My impressions of yesterday’s Professional Numismatists Guild Day seem to be comprised of many snatches of conversation as the day progressed.

One dealer told me that it was the worst PNG Day ever in his experience, but he did not elaborate as to just what it was that made it to the top of his list. Another dealer commented that the market had been down around 35 percent in recent weeks but it was starting to come back. He said he had seen downturns before and knew how to survive them.

None of the conversations I had seemed particularly unusual or out of place given where we were and what we were experiencing.

What hit me as out of place was one of those show happenstances that occurs from time to time. It was about 10 minutes before 5 o’clock and the three of us at the Krause table were just finishing up the job of setting things up. The display was assembled, the papers were placed on the table and all of the other materials were properly located.

Then down the aisle walks Art Benjamin. I’ve know him for years in the souvenir card field. I usually see him at paper money shows. I kind of spied him out of the corner of my eye as he approached the table. You know how it is when someone you know is approaching but you haven’t quite turned your attention fully to him. Well, I thought I spied him carrying something that you don’t usually see on the bourse floor. He got closer and by golly what he was carrying was indeed unusual. He had a full glass of beer in his hand.

“Is that beer?” I asked quickly followed by my second question of, “Where did you get that?”

“Out in the lobby,” he replied. “You can get some if you hurry.”

You just don’t see beer on bourse floors, so I had to go find out what he was talking about. It’s reporter’s duty, you know, to investigate this kind of thing.

Sure enough, dealers were being given tickets in the lobby for a free beer that was being served just a few feet away. The beer wasn’t in a plastic cup, either. It came in glasses or bottles. With my dealer credentials, I was given a free ticket as soon as the woman passing them out saw me. I ordered a Corona. I took a few swallows. Put the bottle down and went back to the Krause table.

“Yup. They are serving free beer in the lobby,” I told my colleagues.

I had drunk just enough to say I had done it, and to provide fodder for my blog. Its all professional interest you understand.

Wednesday, August 05, 2009 1:04:01 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

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Tuesday, August 04, 2009

American Samoa nips Guam for quarter title
Posted by Dave

After traveling most of the day yesterday to get to the site of the American Numismatic Association convention in Los Angeles, what do I find myself doing? Sitting at the computer and looking at the Mint Web site to see what the production numbers were for the month of July.

I hardly needed to get out of bed to do this, let alone travel on a continental scale.

But since I am looking at the numbers, I can say that the American Samoa quarter, which just became available for sale on the Mint’s Web site and through the banking system has narrowly beaten the Guam quarter as the scarcest design in 2009. Only 39,600,000 Denver American Samoa quarters have been struck. Add 42,600,000 Philadelphia American Samoa quarters and you get a grand total for the design of 82,200,000. That is less than Guam’s combined total of 87,600,000 by 5,400,000 pieces.

The Denver American Samoa quarter is now the scarcest of the 2009 quarters while the Philadelphia version ties with the Denver Guam for the title of second scarcest.

Denver continues producing more nickels as it did in June. In July another 6,960,000 were cranked out while the nickel presses remained idle in Philadelphia. That brings the total to 46,800,000 this year compared to Philadelphia’s 39,840,000.

No dimes were struck at either mint in July.

There were only 13,000,000 quarters struck in Denver while Philadelphia produced none.

Philadelphia also hardly cranked up the dollar presses with an output of just 1,960,000 Presidential coins in July compared to 27,440,000 for Denver.

However, just when you think there might be a pattern here, the P-mint struck 141,600,000 cents to Denver’s 120,400,000.

Half dollars and Golden dollars saw no additional coins produced.

Now perhaps I can go hunt for the ANA convention.

Tuesday, August 04, 2009 1:47:23 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

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