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 Tuesday, August 04, 2009
American Samoa nips Guam for quarter title
Posted by Dave
After traveling most of the day yesterday to get to the site of the American Numismatic Association convention in Los Angeles, what do I find myself doing? Sitting at the computer and looking at the Mint Web site to see what the production numbers were for the month of July.
I hardly needed to get out of bed to do this, let alone travel on a continental scale.
But since I am looking at the numbers, I can say that the American Samoa quarter, which just became available for sale on the Mint’s Web site and through the banking system has narrowly beaten the Guam quarter as the scarcest design in 2009. Only 39,600,000 Denver American Samoa quarters have been struck. Add 42,600,000 Philadelphia American Samoa quarters and you get a grand total for the design of 82,200,000. That is less than Guam’s combined total of 87,600,000 by 5,400,000 pieces.
The Denver American Samoa quarter is now the scarcest of the 2009 quarters while the Philadelphia version ties with the Denver Guam for the title of second scarcest.
Denver continues producing more nickels as it did in June. In July another 6,960,000 were cranked out while the nickel presses remained idle in Philadelphia. That brings the total to 46,800,000 this year compared to Philadelphia’s 39,840,000.
No dimes were struck at either mint in July.
There were only 13,000,000 quarters struck in Denver while Philadelphia produced none.
Philadelphia also hardly cranked up the dollar presses with an output of just 1,960,000 Presidential coins in July compared to 27,440,000 for Denver.
However, just when you think there might be a pattern here, the P-mint struck 141,600,000 cents to Denver’s 120,400,000.
Half dollars and Golden dollars saw no additional coins produced.
Now perhaps I can go hunt for the ANA convention.
Tuesday, August 04, 2009 1:47:23 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00) 
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Monday, August 03, 2009
Two new Lincoln cent sets coming
Posted by Dave
Two things are on my mind this morning. You might even be interested in one of them. I am scheduled to take a flight to Los Angeles to attend the American Numismatic Association’s World’s Fair of Money later today.
I look forward to the event to see how the commercial part of the hobby is holding up in the aftermath of the bankruptcy of National Gold Exchange.
It doesn’t hurt that gold is on the strong side this morning. It helps both market psychology and the cash flow of some of the other dealers. This all helps to give commercial activity a push.
Naturally, too, the ANA is a place to see and be seen. There are few places where you can meet so many active and interesting people that you then can continue to deal with by e-mail or telephone during the remaining months of the year.
We are still a hobby and a business where personal relationships matter. That probably is why the NGE affair stings so much whether there is any long-lasting financial fallout or not.
The second thing on my mind this morning has to do with additional Mint products that offer the new Lincoln cents in other packages.
I was in the office yesterday to try to get ahead of the curve before I hit the road today.
Peter Fisher had sent me an e-mail asking about a proof Lincoln cent set that is going on sale Aug. 26. He asked if a Lincoln commemorative dollar was in it.
I fired off an e-mail to the Mint and got a response the same day – Sunday no less – for which I am grateful.
The set going on sale Aug. 26 is a four-coin proof set that features just the four new Lincoln cent designs. Production will be unlimited and order limits, but price and numbers are yet to be announced.
Also, a date is yet to be determined for the availability of what is called the Lincoln Coins and Chronicles Set that will include a proof Lincoln commemorative silver dollar as well as the four proof Lincoln cents.
This second set will have a maximum mintage of just 50,000, because that is the number of proof commemoratives that had been set aside earlier this year.
These will probably sell out in just hours or days when they finally go on sale.
There it is. Time to dash to the airport. I hope to see you in Los Angeles.
Monday, August 03, 2009 2:07:41 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)
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Friday, July 31, 2009
Court ruling on 1933 $20s inspires dreams
Posted by Dave
Nearly everyone enjoys a good David and Goliath story. The idea that size and power that would usually overwhelm the little guy can be beaten inspires all the would be Davids of the world.
The news that a court in Pennsylvania will make the U.S. government prove its ownership of 10 1933 double eagles seized from the Langbord family by having to prove that the coins left the Philadelphia Mint illegally three-quarters of a century ago warms the heart of most collectors.
This ruling on July 28 doesn’t mean that the government won’t muster the proof and won’t eventually seize and then destroy the coins. But it raises the possibility that this will not be the outcome, that suddenly there might be 10 more 1933 double eagles available to collectors.
That might make the owner of the only legal example in private hands upset that he paid $7.59 million for it, but it would open the door to other collectors to add the coin to their Saint-Gaudens $20 gold piece set.
Even though I knew I would never own a 1913 Liberty Head nickel, I have followed it since Aubrey Bebee bought one for $46,000 in 1967. The price has since escalated into the multi millions of dollars. Every collector who as ever looked at a hole in a Whitman album and wondered how it would ever be filled knows what it must be like to be one of those special buyers who can afford to finally acquire that missing key to their coin set.
Dreams are part of what motivates collectors. Individuals don’t know what they can do until they try to do it. Some Davids do win. Some difficult sets are eventually completed. Some numismatic Davids do get their names placed on auction catalogs.
Even if the 10 1933 gold $20s never leave government hands again, this court ruling has helped inspire further numismatic dreams.
Dreams do come true, whether it is through the luck of the lottery, or by hard work. Dreams that come true are the essence of being a collector.
Friday, July 31, 2009 2:18:59 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)
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Thursday, July 30, 2009
Keep an eye on those low mintages
Posted by Dave
Nothing seems more hopeless than a new coin series in which the average hobbyist has lost interest.
The First Spouse half-ounce gold coin program is just such a program.
Perhaps that means now is the time to bottom fish. The future of First Spouse coins on the secondary market will be heavily dependent on where gold goes over the next few decades, but even in the shadow of precious metals, mintages will sooner or later have an impact.
The 20,000 mintages for both proof and uncirculated Martha Washington, Abigail Adams and Thomas Jefferson pieces will probably forever be common – just so much bullion in an attractive numismatic package.
However, the sales of First Spouse coins that we are currently going through are the wives of Presidents that Americans have long forgotten. This is what yields opportunity.
The Julia Tyler coin goes on sale Aug. 6. She is the second wife of John Tyler, who served in office 1841-1845. Before this program I didn’t know he had two wives.
See? The educational mission is being performed.
But back to my point. So far only 1,517 uncirculated first wife Letitia Tyler coins have been sold.
That’s darn few.
If numbers continue to fall in this neighborhood for the First Spouse coins of the Presidents just before Lincoln, when the inevitable revival of interest occurs for the 16th President, there might be a pleasant pop in interest for these low-mintage pieces, too.
Thursday, July 30, 2009 2:04:56 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)
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Wednesday, July 29, 2009
Chinese gold standard could look like this
Posted by Dave
Gold marches up toward $1,000. Gold marches back down again. Today it is $934.
What if this is what China wants?
I have read writers who say that Chinese buying is good for the market and an indication that gold is about to take off. I’ll bet you have seen stories like this, too.
Certainly Chinese buying is not an indicator of gold market weakness. That goes without saying.
But is it in the interests of China to push gold to $1,500 or $2,000 a troy ounce when it holds so many U.S. dollars and other foreign currencies?
That would be like throwing half their money away. Why would a Chinese official in his right mind simply bid the price of gold higher and higher on the open market?
It seems to me it would be far better for the Chinese to nibble when gold is weak and stop buying when it temporarily strengthens. Over time its gold reserves will continue to grow and they will do so without disruptions to the market that would cost them a bundle.
When the gold standard held sway in the world, the U.S. Treasury stood ready to buy gold for the official price of $20.67. It also stood ready to sell gold for $20.67 an ounce in the form of freshly minted U.S. coins.
The prices weren’t precise. The market assessed what were called points to pay the cost of shipping, insurance and the expenditures associated with handling physical gold.
What if China has decided to behave somewhat in this fashion except the band is not points either side of an official price but simply $1,000 on the high end and $900 on the low end?
It could keep this up for years.
Wednesday, July 29, 2009 2:02:47 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)
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Tuesday, July 28, 2009
What impact National Gold Exchange bankruptcy?
Posted by Dave
Yesterday bags and rolls of American Samoa quarters went on sale at the Mint and the news hit the hobby that a major player, National Gold Exchange of Tampa, Fla., filed for bankruptcy protection Friday.
Both items are important to the future of the hobby, but if I had to make a bet, I would say that the readers of Numismatic News would consider the availability of the quarters they are trying to collect to be more important than the business news.
I am equally sure that commercially active readers would have the opposite opinion – there just aren’t as many of those.
There is no question that National Gold Exchange was a player. At shows it had multiple tables in prominent locations on the bourse floor.
The question becomes one of assessing damage. Did other dealers see it coming and protect themselves, or is there a lot of paper out there. “Paper” in hobby parlance is issued but uncashed checks, but primarily unpaid invoices called memos whereby one dealer gives a coin to another dealer on memo, trusting that he will be paid when the second dealer sells the coin.
There are always secondary effects. Who bought something last week planning to sell it to someone else who in turn would be offering it to NGE?
The disentangling process will be the topic of many a conversation at next week’s American Numismatic Association convention in Los Angeles.
Tuesday, July 28, 2009 2:04:32 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)
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Monday, July 27, 2009
Ready, set, talk
Posted by Dave
I was on Harry Rinker’s “Whatcha Got?” radio program yesterday morning. The reason was the recent release of the 2010 edition of U.S. Coin Digest.
It is always a pleasure to be on the show. It is also a bit of a challenge.
What do you say in two minutes to sum up what has gone on in the hobby over the past 12 months? And that two minutes includes questions from Harry.
I mentioned the active Lincoln cent market, though many dealers can probably now argue it the other way. Those who wanted coins to sell in this, the centennial year of the Lincoln cent, have probably already done their buying and will be in the process of lightening up so they can focus on gathering inventory for 2010. But the book reflects the last 12-month cycle, not the next one.
Gold is still strong, but it has essentially gone sideways since my appearance last year.
I mentioned that the gold uptrend that started in 2001 is still unbroken and this serves as a rising floor to numismatically valuable coins.
Prices in the 2010 book have been extensively revised. Collectors live and breathe prices. It is almost a personal thing.
You feel like you have had a good year if you see your favorite holdings have increased a bit in value. If what you own has not changed or gone down, you feel like you have somehow failed.
We spoke a lot about silver. Harry noted that a friend was currently paying 8.5 times face value for 90-percent silver coins. Silver has had a rip-roaring time while gold has gone sideways. It has fallen by half and recovered a bit. Now it is trading at $14.
Overall, when I finish, I think that no matter what I managed to say in the allotted time, it wasn’t nearly enough.
But the old stage advice to leave people wanting more probably applies.
I can file these thoughts away until next year’s program.
Monday, July 27, 2009 2:08:44 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)
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Friday, July 24, 2009
Will we be singing "Hello Dalai?"
Posted by Dave
With sales of the Formative Years two-roll Lincoln cent set approaching 300,000, it is fair to ask how many will ultimately be sold.
I do not have a specific answer. This week’s running total is 290,086.
However, the Mint promises that one of the items it will have at its booth Aug. 5-9 at the American Numismatic Association World’s Fair of Money will be these two-roll sets.
If you are attending the convention and haven’t purchased any, this will be your chance to examine the rolls before you buy to make sure the end coins are not damaged.
Timing is everything. Can you imagine the mob scene that could have been organized had the Aug. 13 debut of the Professional Life cent design been just one week earlier?
The ANA would have gotten an extra 4,000 people. With the new admission charge of $6 a day for nonmembers, that could have translated into $24,000 extra dollars for an organization that could use every extra penny it can get.
Such is not to be. The Mint booth is plenty popular even without a new product, but it could have been an event in its own right but for this timing issue.
Perhaps demand for the Dalai Lama medal will surprise me.
Friday, July 24, 2009 2:04:02 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)
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Thursday, July 23, 2009
Step right up and put your money down
Posted by Dave
Price guides are an essential part of numismatics. I don’t know what I would have done without my 1965 Red Book, or my Telequotes in Numismatic News as I got started in the hobby.
I imagine most collectors feel the same way.
But what should be done about the proliferation of privately produced numismatic products?
These range from colorized state quarters to sets of U.S. coins packaged in a specific way to be marketed to what largely seem to be non-collector audiences.
I had a phone call from a fellow this week who bought a set of three Bicentennial coins that were combined with autographs of the artists who designed the quarter, half dollar and dollar coins.
He wanted to know where he could find out what they were worth.
He was disappointed when I told him they were not government sets and were privately produced.
The long pause on the other end of the line seemed to say “and your point is?”
I explained that our price guides and the guides that I see elsewhere are pretty standardized with the government-issue qualification.
Anybody can buy U.S. coins in the secondary market, design some attractive packaging and remarket the coins as a new product.
But when the time comes to sell these, what are they worth?
I told the man that the underlying value of the coins would most likely determine the value.
He retorted that President Ford had been selling them.
I could not tell him that in this instance the late President had no known numismatic judgment.
To conclude I finally had to say that I had no additional information to supply and I wished him luck.
Thursday, July 23, 2009 1:59:09 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)
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Wednesday, July 22, 2009
Get those cents more easily
Posted by Dave
The introduction of the third Lincoln cent design for 2009, the one marking Abraham’ Lincoln’s professional career in Springfield, Ill., will be held at the Old Capitol in that city Aug. 13.
The question is: will anybody be paying any attention to the governor of Illinois and the Mint director at the ceremony, or will the public behave as they did in Lincoln City, Ind., in May and skip the ceremony to stand in line to obtain the new cents for face value?
At this point, I would be fairly certain that standing in line will trump ceremony.
It doesn’t have to be that way. I have an idea.
Why not organize the event as a business might?
Give everybody who arrives on site a numbered ticket. The number will be the place in line that the holder gets when the cents become available from Chase Bank at the conclusion of the ceremonial event.
This would allow the public to witness the ceremony in a relaxed manner, steep themselves in the history that they are a part of and not worry about missing out on the coins.
People holding tickets can very easily sort themselves into an orderly line.
The downside, of course, is the public won’t have to stand in line for many hours, making friends of those people immediately ahead and behind them as the hobbyists did in Indiana.
I think they would probably be willing to give up that opportunity.
Wednesday, July 22, 2009 2:05:37 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)
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