The "Buzz" Coin Blog with Dave Harper

An impression and the latest cent sales
Posted by Dave

The second Lincoln cent design of 2009 seems to be making it into the hands of the public much faster than the first design did.

That is my impression. I do not have a national survey to report on this.

What I do have are anecdotal reports of receipt of the Formative Years design by collectors in Dallas, Texas, and Puerto Rico. The latter location was also fortunate in the first release.

However, it has been less than two weeks since the formal introduction of the Formative Years design in Lincoln City, Ind. It took much longer for this type of report to reach me after the first release in February.

What I also detect is a greater anxiety level among collectors. They are much more attuned to the second cent release than they were to the first. This is perhaps due to the all the excitement they witnesses the first time and a desire not to miss it the second time.

For some, this anxiety is almost becoming bitter. It is as if they were invited last to a party and they knew it. Now all they can do in the revelry is complain that they were the last to arrive.

I think we should just enjoy it. When I was a young collector in the 1960s I marveled at how fortunate the collectors of the 1907-1916 period were with all the beautiful new designs.

What I learned along the way was that many collectors of the envied time did not appreciate what was going on as it was occurring, with the major exception of the Lincoln cent because of the prominent V.D.B. initials.

When collectors look back on the present time in 2060, are they going to see a hobby enjoying an exciting time to be collectors, or will the overwhelming evidence be that we couldn’t take it?

Collectors of the future, of course, will have the advantage of final sales and mintage numbers while we are waiting week to week. The current Lincoln two-roll set sales figure is 222,826, up almost 23,000 since last week.

Wednesday, May 27, 2009 2:04:01 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

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Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Not doubled but DC quarter still a find
Posted by Dave

I spent part of my Memorial Day weekend at a family backyard barbecue at my nephew’s house on Sunday.

In between games of pitcher’s hand, tossing a football, ladder ball and the general chitchat, my 12-year-old grandnephew said that he had obtained a District of Columbia quarter in circulation. It is hard to find here as elsewhere. It was the first he had seen.
He wondered if I wanted to see it.

Sure, I wanted to see it.

The coin was a 2009-D. When new coins finally make it to my neck of the woods, they usually are from Denver.

We were out in the sunshine and I could not see Duke Ellington’s name on the piano in the bright light, so I asked if there was any evidence of doubling.

My grandnephew looked at it and quickly said there wasn’t. So, other readers will have to continue to scour their change for the design and see if a second example of the strongly doubled “E” in Ellington can be found.

I hope so.

Last week’s reader poll registered the opinion that the error is overrated by a 76 percent majority, but that number could easily swing the other way if more and more examples of it can be found in circulation. There is nothing like a few thousand collectors with newly found coins to help persuade the rest of us that the find is significant.

This was the only numismatic conversation I had during my entire weekend. I guess that means I relaxed.

Tuesday, May 26, 2009 2:01:10 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

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Friday, May 22, 2009

American Eagle shortage ending?
Posted by Dave

Gold buyers for most of the past year have interpreted the shortage of American Eagle gold and silver bullion coins as an indication that the prices of precious metals should rise, even when the exchanges, which trade “paper gold,” were declining.

Now there are indications that the American Eagle shortage is ending.

In the prior two weeks, the 14 purchasers authorized to buy the American Eagle coins from the U.S. Mint have not taken the maximum number of coins that are available, leaving the Mint with an extra 39,000 one-ounce gold American Eagles and 185,000 extra silver American Eagles.

These numbers are not large, but the trend is confirmed by Coin Market editor Harry Miller. He reported in his weekly column on the Coin Market at a Glance pages in Numismatic News yesterday that premiums on these coins have returned to the normal levels that prevailed before the shortages began. Indiana dealer Julian Jarvis three weeks ago was the first to point in this direction in an interview for Coin Chat Radio and Numismatic News.

If this is indeed the end of the shortage, will gold buyers interpret this as an indication that gold bullion prices should stay where they are or fall?

I think you know the answer to that question.

Interestingly, “paper gold” has been rising in price in recent days, now over $950 a troy ounce.

Perhaps gold buyers will find in this market a new best friend and market indicator.

Friday, May 22, 2009 1:54:17 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

Comments [1]

Thursday, May 21, 2009

In the moment, but too much
Posted by Dave

How many times can I stammer the word “in” in asking a question?

I tried to find out yesterday morning when I was interviewing U.S. Mint Director Ed Moy for Coin Chat Radio at http://coinchatradio.fwpublications.com/.

Our topic was the possibility of creating a Strategic Coin Reserve to meet any unexpected surges in coin demand from the Federal Reserve System or to have coins available in case the usual supply chain is disrupted.

One of the questions I wanted to ask I unfortunately began by trying to say, “In your tenure,” but I got stuck on “in” repeatedly. My mind kind of went blank so I stopped. I apologized for the problem and then recovered myself to ask the question, which was basically that in Moy’s tenure as Mint director he has seen dropping coin demand even before the recession kicked in.

I asked whether the dramatic drop in coin demand we are experiencing is more than just a recessionary demand reduction?

Find out his response by checking out http://coinchatradio.fwpublications.com/ today after 11 a.m. Central Daylight Time.

I told the Mint director that I got all tongue tied once before when the topic was an auction featuring significant Costa Rican rarities. I got so wrapped up in the specific lots that I lost the general thread of the conversation.

I have an interest in Costa Rican numismatic items and I guess I am still that wide-eyed kid who first subscribed to Numismatic News 40 years ago after picking up a copy at the coin show in Forest City, Iowa.

Once I read the letters to the editor, I was hooked. I sent five of my hard-earned paper-route dollars to Iola, Wis., and the rest, as they say, is is is is ... history.

(The server was down all morning, so apologies to all for the delay in accessing my blog.)

Thursday, May 21, 2009 7:44:19 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

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Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Fast start for cent roll sales
Posted by Dave

How wound up are collectors about the new Formative Years Lincoln cent design introduced May 14 in a special ceremony in southern Indiana?

Very, if some statistics that I have just obtained are any indication.

On May 15 I wrote about the thousands of people who were present at the debut ceremony to obtain rolls of the new coins for face value.

However, most collectors could not travel to the ceremony. They had to rely on sales of the two-roll Lincoln cent set that the Mint began offering May 14.

While some are still grumbling about the $8.95 issue price, that sentiment seems to be overruled when it comes to taking action.

From May 14 to May 17 the Mint sold more than twice the number of cent sets than it sold in March for the first design.

Where it took about almost two weeks to dispose of 96,000 Brithplace two-roll sets (March 13-March 26), in just three days the orders for the Formative Years set totaled 200,055.

That’s huge. There is no telling where this thing can go. Obviously the Mint is working to increase the quantity available in light of the quick March sellout, but so far I don’t have word as to what sort of demand it is prepared to meet.

I see the Mint Web site is still taking orders, but I also note that the shipping date is now July 15, something that a number of readers have e-mailed to me as it relates to their own orders.

Those collectors who remember the roll and bag boom in the early 1960s might just be feeling a bit nostalgic about now. Perhaps the Mint should offer 2009-dated nickel and dime rolls, too.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009 1:50:02 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

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Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Mouth open, thoughts of coins
Posted by Dave

I spent a significant part of yesterday afternoon in the dentist’s chair. But even spending almost two hours there ended up with a numismatic component.

My dentist inherited a few coins from a grandmother and he knew I am editor of Numismatic News.

So, between having a mouthful of drill or goop used to make a mold for my pending crown, he was asking me questions.

He had a few silver dollars. At first he said a bag – and you know that conjures up the number 1,000 coins in the mind of a collector – but a little later he clarified and said he had around a dozen silver dollars.

They were circulated, so I didn’t have to worry about how to keep them in Mint State. I told him to look under the eagle’s tail feathers on the reverse for the mintmark. There is none for Philadelphia, but New Orleans has an “O,” San Francisco an “S” and Carson City “CC.” I suggested he concentrate on CC coins generally and, the 1889-CC specifically as well as the 1893-S.

(And you’re right, I did not mention the Denver 1921.)

I told him that many of the coins he had were likely common and worth about $12 each. He found that a little hard to believe until I told them that the Mint turned them out by the hundreds of millions.

He also mentioned that he had some Indian cents. I told him the rare dates were 1877, 1908-S and 1909-S. I didn’t get a chance to tell him where the mintmark is on these coins. By then my mouth was steadily filled with things going in an out.

By the end of my session, he decided that since I was coming back in two weeks, it would be easier for me to look at the coins rather so he wouldn’t have to try to remember what I had said.

Tuesday, May 19, 2009 1:56:50 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

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Monday, May 18, 2009

Tyler or Spears? I know who wins
Posted by Dave

It is hard for me to get mentally started this morning. My e-mail has the usual large group of messages that have accumulated since I left the office at 5 p.m. on Friday.

The calendar says that one of the news highlights this week is that tomorrow the John Tyler Presidential dollar will be officially introduced at his Sherwood Forest Plantation in Charles City County, Va., 11 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time.

This event is significant, but it occurs in the immediate shadow of last week’s launch on May 14 of the second Lincoln cent design for 2009. This has already been followed by a lot of online auction offerings of the new coins.

Also, Tyler was the nation’s 10th President and is not particularly well known. Even if he were very well known, it might help public interest, but in any numismatic series the 10th issue just doesn’t generate the same level of excitement as the first couple of issues do.

What makes this event a little bit unusual is that there will be no coin exchange afterward.

Events of this kind don’t always catch fire the way the Lincoln introductory event did, but they are important. They help keep the public informed and they help point out the historical nature of the issues themselves.

Perhaps I should simply have started out by mentioning Britney Spears. I have done this twice in two years and the level of interest in my blog then pops higher. Why should I do this? Absolutely no reason except it makes me laugh. Sometimes a good laugh is better than anything.

There – I feel much better.

I bet you do, too. After all, we collectors are as human as anybody else.

Monday, May 18, 2009 2:11:51 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

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Friday, May 15, 2009

What ceremony? Give us the coins
Posted by Dave

Some 3,000 to 4,000 people made their way to the Lincoln Amphitheatre in Lincoln City, Ind., yesterday for the ceremony officially introducing the second 2009 Lincoln cent design.

They mostly ignored the actual ceremony. My contact, Don Mark, a hobbyist from Johnston, Iowa, who drove over with Mark Olson estimated the capacity of the theatre at 1,500 and of that only about 10 percent was used.

Why?

He said that people going to the ceremony would lose their place in line to get the rolls of the new coins for face value.

So Mint Director Ed Moy and other dignitaries basically talked to an empty house.

The six-roll per person restriction was in effect all day, unlike the event at Kentucky in February when at the end remaining boxes of the cents were available to anyone who wanted them.

However, participants could go through the line more than once – and they did.

Don and his fellow collector went through the line three times, each gaining 18 rolls for their effort.

The first time, he said, it took 30-45 minutes to get to the head of the line to get coins, but he pointed out that he arrived on site at 8 a.m. for a 10 a.m. ceremony and coins weren’t distributed until after the ceremony’s conclusion.

For the second time, Don said the line was 1,500-2,000 people long and it took an hour and a half to reach the coin distribution point.

The third time, he estimated, the time required was almost as long, at one and a quarter to perhaps one and a half hours.

Don said he witnessed the wheeling out of the last five boxes of cents from the Brink's truck, so he said all the available supply was distributed.

Don also said he talked to someone who had been at the Feb. 12 Kentucky ceremony and was told that the crowd in Indiana was about four times the size of the Kentucky crowd.

An interesting tidbit was that leaflets were distributed telling people that it was illegal to buy and sell in the park.

If everybody rushed home to offer the coins on eBay, the odds are that the wider distribution will help hold prices below those that prevailed for the first design.

However, if the bulk of the people were there solely to acquire coins for their collections, that would be another matter. The greater publicity might also help push prices higher as individuals who missed the first issue try to catch up with the second.

Friday, May 15, 2009 2:04:37 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

Comments [1]

Thursday, May 14, 2009

What's gold trying to tell us?
Posted by Dave

I did my usual gold check this morning and saw a price of $923. There is nothing remarkable about either the price or the continuation of my morning habit of checking up on it.

That’s just it. It has gotten – dare I write this – boring.

Since the record price of just over $1,000 was set in March 2008, the price has basically been going sideways at the $900 level. When the price goes over that amount, sellers seem to come in and dump a little. When the price dips under that figure, buyers come in and take a little.

It adds up to a scoreless tie in the 11th inning of a baseball game. Unless you appreciate the finer points of pitching and perhaps good defensive plays, the game is kind of dull.

That’s where we are with gold. For 14 months we have been going sideways.

The bulls are betting on inflation taking the price higher. They cite a rapid increase in the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, which has indeed more than doubled to around $2 trillion. They cite the $787 billion bank bailout and the $1.8 trillion U.S. budget deficit for the coming year. They also cite Chinese buying.

With all that, why isn’t gold higher?

On the other hand, some believe gold will fall because deflation is sweeping through the world. The prices of U.S. houses have dropped by 30 percent, drastically impairing the ability of many Americans to spend. The price of oil is down 60 percent from its $147 peak. The U.S. Consumer Price Index has fallen year-to-year for the first time since 1955.

OK, so why isn’t gold lower then?

Both sides cite plausible facts to support their case, but the price of gold doesn’t seem to be reacting to either.

So what is the gold market trying to tell us? What if it is saying economic forces are evenly balanced: catastrophe isn’t coming but neither is recovery?

What then? What then, indeed.

Thursday, May 14, 2009 2:01:00 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

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Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Clamor for cents begins tomorrow
Posted by Dave

Tomorrow is the big day. The second Lincoln cent design of 2009 will be introduced in southern Indiana.

Interest continues to build in the affair because individuals will be able to obtain up to six rolls of the new cents for face value.

The cost of $3 can be multiplied in value because dealers will be on hand to offer premium prices to those who get them. How high these prices will go tomorrow is a good question because I have been made aware that multiple dealers and other individuals will be on hand to buy coins from individual attendees who get their allotted share.

Minimum purchase is two rolls at a cost of $1. Maximum is six rolls that would cost $3.
Anyone who takes the minimum tomorrow will pass up the opportunity to make an immediate profit. I don’t see anyone willingly taking the minimum.

The greater likelihood seems to be a large crowd and a rapid depletion of the cent supplies on hand. We’ll see.

The Mint has given itself wiggle room by noting in its most recent statements that the limits are subject to change.

Members of the crowd probably would likely get a little testy if when they arrive they are told that they can buy fewer than six rolls.

In a roundabout way this is good news. Cents haven’t gotten much respect in recent years. Many or even most people won’t pick a cent off the street or sidewalk if they see one.

I still think of serendipitous finds of this kind as “lucky pennies.”

Those who are able to buy rolls tomorrow will undoubtedly find them lucky if they define the term as being worth more than face value.

How high will their values go online and elsewhere? That will depend, I suppose, on how many coins are acquired by dealers and others whose sole purpose will be to sell them as fast as possible.

More coins in those hands will have the effect of holding prices down, because they will be competing against each other to sell them and buyers will have many offers to choose from or lots to bid on.

Still, somebody will complain about how events unfold tomorrow. That is the price of success.

Wednesday, May 13, 2009 2:05:47 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)

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