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 Tuesday, April 07, 2009
No quarters at Denver in March
Posted by Dave
No quarters were struck by the Denver Mint in the month of March and Philadelphia coined just 200,000 pieces. Those startling numbers have set collectors who are already circling around the new District of Columbia and Territorial quarter program because of the unusually low mintages running for their calculators to figure out just how low the Guam production total might go. If the banking system doesn’t need quarters, the Guam issue could make the current frenzy over the Birthplace Lincoln cent look like the appetizer before the speculative banquet. For the month of March there were cents produced, but once again the rate of production is declining. Just 98 million were struck. Most of those, or 90 million, were struck at Philadelphia and just 8 million were coined at Denver. This brings total cent production this year to 634,800,000. Both these sets of figures confirm an e-mail I had earlier this month from a collector who said there didn’t seem to be any production activity at the Denver Mint. He knew someone who had just taken a public tour. There were no half dollars or Native American dollars produced in March at either mint. Denver also struck no dimes in March and Philadelphia struck just 11 million pieces. However, Denver wasn’t completely shut down in March. In addition to the small number of cents, it produced 3,120,000 nickels and 29,260,000 Presidential dollars. Philadelphia contributed 12,960,000 nickels and 10,500,000 Presidential dollars. Overall, just 165,040,000 coins were struck by both mints together. If the pace would continue like this, which isn’t likely, the total coinage for the year would be just under 2.7 billion coins. A production plunge of this magnitude would confirm financial pundits who are calling the current recession the worst since the 1930s.
Tuesday, April 07, 2009 2:11:40 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)
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 Monday, April 06, 2009
Market cycles both seasonal and long term
Posted by Dave
One of the perennial topics of numismatic writing is the arrival of the April 15 tax filing deadline, a date that usually looms larger for those who owe Uncle Sam money than those who do not. Those individuals who are entitled to refunds usually get their returns submitted as fast as they can to get their hands on the refund. My first boss, Arnold Jeffcoat, who occupied the editor’s chair at Numismatic News 1973-1982, had his tax time editorial all ready to go. He usually wrote that the market would slow down, either as items were sold to raise money to pay taxes or money was not available to make as many purchases. This pause was often characterized as a buying opportunity if one was interested in the popularly traded and easily salable items like proof sets. Rarities, of course, don’t trade in quite such a seasonal manner. Their sales cycle runs in longer stretches. When markets are hot, they tend to appear in public sales more frequently as each owner grabs the prestige of adding his name to a pedigree and then decides the easy profit is worth taking in a year or two. During down parts of the long-term cycles, the rarities appear less and less as the owners, knowing their long-term value, put them away, awaiting the next crazy up cycle that will earn them the profit they are looking for. Sometimes life events prevent owners from optimizing their sales timing, but it is amazing to watch this speeding up and slowing down process over the years. Heritage putting an 1804 silver dollar in the Central States auction at the end of this month just a year after selling another 1804 dollar at the prior Central States convention could be an indication that the upside of the market cycle is still intact. Anyone active in the business will certainly hope so.
Monday, April 06, 2009 1:58:19 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)
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 Friday, April 03, 2009
Feeding frenzy comes before decline
Posted by Dave
Will we see packed highways and crowds of collectors at the May 14 formal introduction of the second 2009 Lincoln cent? The odds are good because of the online feeding frenzy surrounding the first design of the year. It is hard to believe it can still be going on with a mintage of over half a billion coins, but it is. Too many people seem to believe that if the new cents cannot appear effortlessly and instantaneously all over the country, they must be rare. That is a financially dangerous assumption, but as long as the bubble of online enthusiasm lasts, it can go on for a while. The Rail Splitter design will make its appearance May 14 at the Lincoln Amphitheatre in Lincoln City, Ind. That’s a ways off the beaten path, so collectors who want to obtain early supplies for face value will have to grab a truck and drive. How many cents will the Mint have on hand that day? I don’t know, but I hope the staff is planning for more than at the first launch. There were no shortages on that ceremonial first day Feb. 12 in Kentucky, but some collectors who afterwards jealously watched the prices those early supplies brought online will hope lightning will strike twice. This phenomenon itself argues against a repeat of the high prices, but perhaps only by degree. Second issues of anything often see much higher initial demand. However, this increased demand is from buyers whose only goal is to dump them as fast as they can for as much as they can get. Only when the market later gets a sufficient sense of how much greater this early demand contributed to existing supplies does the correction set in. Markets generally are not kind to the prices of second issues, but another feeding frenzy will likely occur before that happens.
Friday, April 03, 2009 1:57:20 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)
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 Thursday, April 02, 2009
Caught between rock and hard place
Posted by Dave
It was bound to happen. I received my first complaint from a reader who received a package from the Mint by UPS and complained that he had to sign for it and arrange to be home to do it. To be fair, what was in the package was the book that is supposed to accompany the Ultra High Relief Saint-Gaudens $20 gold piece that the Mint is selling this year. The Mint had starting shipping coins without the books so that collectors didn’t have to wait for their coins while the Mint worked out the problems in acquiring the books themselves. The collector I heard from apparently received his coin before the new policy took effect because he contrasted not signing for the valuable coin but having to sign for the much less valuable book. This event follows a change in policy on signatures. Prior to March 13, signatures for the very valuable coins were not required. After that date, they were. This policy change occurred after collector complaints were heard about these gold coins being left on doorsteps without the recipients having to sign for them. So the Mint showed it was responsive to its customer base. What’s the Mint to do now? In this case, the wise course is to treat it as an anomaly and ignore the complaint.
Thursday, April 02, 2009 1:48:11 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)
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 Wednesday, April 01, 2009
More candidates enter the ANA field
Posted by Dave
Two new candidates have thrown their hat in the ring for election to the American Numismatic Association Board of Governors. Though not all have accepted their nominations yet, the field has swelled to 17 candidates from the 15 that were present or issued statements for the candidate forum in Portland, Ore., March 7. Deadline for accepting or rejecting nomination is April 7. The additions to the field are Mandeville, La., coin dealer and former Republican candidate for U.S. senator Paul Hollis. The other is J.P. Martin, a professional coin grader whose career at one time saw him grading coins for ANACS when it was owned and operated by the American Numismatic Association. The rest of the field includes two candidates for president, current Vice President Patti Finner, and Gov. Clifford Mishler. Both are from Iola, Wis. Tom Hallenbeck of Colorado Springs, Colo., is the only candidate for vice president. The other candidates for governor are: • Joseph E. Boling of Indianapolis. • Michael Ellis, Virginia Beach, Va. • Brian E. Fanton, Hiawatha, Iowa • Jeff C. Garrett, Lexington, Ky. • Alan Herbert, Mesa, Ariz. • Chester L. Krause, Iola, Wis. • Walter A. Ostromecki Jr., Encino, Calif. • Thomas A. Palmer Jr., New Smyrna Beach, Fla. • Scott Rottinghaus, New London, Conn. • Jeffrey Swindling, Jacksonville, Fla. • Michael S. Turrini, Vallejo, Calif. • Wendell Wolka, Greenwood, Ind. The election will be held by mail ballot. They usually go into the mail about June 1 and voting is conducted until the middle of July. A new board will be sworn in Aug. 8 at the Los Angeles World’s Fair of Money. So far the heat of the 2007 campaign is missing, but on the other hand, it is still early in the campaign.
Wednesday, April 01, 2009 1:57:21 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)
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 Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Can it happen again?
Posted by Dave
It has been many years since a coin struck for circulation has become scarce. The 1950-D nickel was not struck for collectors only. The 1955-S cent was not coined to sell on a Mint Web site. Mintage totals were based on what the economy was demanding. With the mintages of the first two of the six District of Columbia and Territorial quarters now known, we have the tantalizing number of 53,000,000 Puerto Rico quarters struck in Philadelphia. That is the lowest total since 1962. So there is some basis for me to feel like a kid again. The 1962 quarter was not impossible to find in change. There were enough, but I seemed to see many more 1962-D quarters than the mintage ratio would have indicated, but then I lived in the part of the country where the coins came from Denver. The 1958 quarter from Philadelphia was hard to find. Its mintage, though, was 7,235,652. That, too, was not rare, but I looked long and hard for it in my change and I was jubilant when the elderly man on my paper route who attempted to teach me to count to 10 in Welsh paid his bill with coins that included the 1958. Is such a low mintage possible today? If the banking system continues to back up with old coins, can the next four quarters in the 2009 sequence continue their mintage declines? If the Philadelphia production declines at the same rate through the six-design quarter run, we would be close to the 7 million figure. It would be interesting to see how collectors would react to it.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009 1:57:43 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)
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 Monday, March 30, 2009
ANA takes back award
Posted by Dave
The calendar will turn the page to April on Wednesday. Spring is supposed to be here in Iola, but fresh snow frustrates those of us who believe the calendar. Frustration of another kind perhaps is occurring on the American Numismatic Association Board of Governors. One of the leftover items in my notebook from the March 6 meeting in Portland is a motion relating to the former executive director Christopher Cipoletti. A twice-delayed arbitration is supposed to occur in April. The ANA board would like to get the matter of Cipoletti’s firing in 2007 behind it. Will it be delayed again? We’ll see. One thing that wasn’t delayed was a request by former president Bill Horton to strip Cipoletti of a Presidential Award that Horton had given him in the final minutes of his presidency during the banquet at the Milwaukee summer convention in 2007. When President Barry Stuppler brought the matter up at the tail end of the meeting, a motion was made by Vice President Patti Finner and Seconded by Gov. Walter Ostromecki to rescind the Presidential Award at Horton’s request. Former ANA President Bob Campbell commented to the board, “I think it is a bad idea.” He also said it was hurtful. Legal Counsel Ron Sirna said the motion was in order after remarking that Cipoletti had cost the organization $2 million to $3 million in litigation. “There is a substantial basis for Mr. Horton’s request.,” Sirna said. The vote carried unanimously.
Monday, March 30, 2009 1:53:15 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)
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 Friday, March 27, 2009
Cent sellout important milestone
Posted by Dave
What is more important? Yesterday word came that the uncirculated Lincoln commemorative silver dollar had sold out and also that the two-roll sets of 2009 Lincoln cents with the Birthplace reverse had also sold out. I choose the cent sellout for three reasons. The first is that despite the fact that there were some collectors who complained that the price was a rip-off at nearly 14 cents per coin ($8.95 plus $4.95 shipping equals $13.90 for 100 coins), others simply bought them and were glad to have the opportunity to do so. The second reason is the sellout occurred in less than two weeks, the rolls having gone on sale March 13. This compares to the approximately six weeks that it has taken to reach the sellout point for the uncirculated Lincoln dollar. (The proof is close to a sellout, but not quite there yet.) The third reason is I am surprised that there were only 100,000 two-roll sets available. I think other collectors will be, too, and that will focus their attention on the new design all the more. Perhaps I should throw in a fourth reason, because this sellout sets us up for the release of the second of the four new reverse designs in May in a way that will keep us on the edge of our seats. There will be a group of collectors ready, willing and able to jump in to buy yet more two-roll sets. They might even snap these up quicker than the first two-roll set. It is true that I have had a few more e-mails from lucky collectors who live in areas where the new coins are reaching circulation, but most of the country remains deprived of the new coins. In fact, one desperate collector sent me a note that wanted to know why the Mint wasn’t retiring the old coinage and melting it down to make room for the new. I personally haven’t been so focused on cents since about 1966. That seems to be true for others and that’s another good reason that the two-roll set sellout is more important than the commemorative sellout. That makes five reasons. If I made them funnier I could be on Letterman.
Friday, March 27, 2009 12:21:57 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)
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 Thursday, March 26, 2009
Take part in Braille sellout?
Posted by Dave
As I was getting ready to go to work today I heard a news story on CBS Radio about the introduction today of the Braille commemorative silver dollar. Way to go, Mint, in getting such a story on the air. Mint Director Ed Moy will be in Baltimore, Md., at the headquarters of the National Federation of the Blind to make a ceremonial presentation of the new coin to the organization’s president, Marc Maurer. While collectors are aware of this kind of publicity, what truly matters to them is what time will the coin become available, and that is noon Eastern Daylight Time, and whether they want to buy the coin at all. Going into their individual calculations will be matters of taste: Do they like the theme and the design? They will look at the prices, $37.95 for the proof and $31.95 for the uncirculated – the same as for Lincoln. They will consider the chances of a sellout, or will it slink away in December as the Bald Eagle coins did with unsold inventory remaining? Increasing the possibility of a sellout is the mintage. At 400,000 pieces, it is 100,000 fewer than the Lincoln coin. That might be enough to offset the lower level of interest in Louis Braille as compared to Abraham Lincoln. Ultimately, they will consider whether it is good value for the money, and that requires an evaluation of what might happen on the secondary market, especially on the online auction sites. I expect a sellout – not a rapid one mind – but a nice comfortable sellout where most everyone who wants one will have more than enough opportunity to buy it directly from the Mint. What are your purchase plans?
Thursday, March 26, 2009 12:53:17 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)
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 Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Clean out the attic
Posted by Dave
It could be hard times, or it could be just the next cycle, but people are scrambling to figure out the value of the numismatic items in their possession. I have had an e-mail this week from someone who thinks he has a Continental dollar coin. I responded by telling him that he needed to have it authenticated because the odds of it being a copy are very high. Another e-mail came in wanting to know the value of a miscellaneous group of coins. There were a few Morgan and Peace dollars, some pre-1965 silver coins that encompass Mercury dimes, Walking Liberty and Franklin half dollars, Washington quarters and a single Standing Liberty quarter from 1927. In addition there were a few 40-percent silver half dollars from 1965-1969 and a parallel number of Washington quarters from the same period, probably indicating that they were saved in the mistaken belief that these too contained some silver as the half dollars of those years did. There were also some Wheat-back cents and a couple of Buffalo nickels. It is a typical accumulation of a type that was probably assembled in the middle 1960s as silver coins were disappearing from circulation. While there was no great rarity among the coins listed, it certainly is nice to be able to tell the owner that the silver coins have a basic silver value of 9.5 times face value and the silver dollars are worth a little bit more than that. These coins once sold won’t make the owner rich, but the proceeds might help bail out a stressed family budget for a week. Selling the coins, though is a problem. The owner was not particularly close to a city with a coin dealer in it, so the trip to sell them will have to be piggybacked on another one, or the cost of travel will eat up much of the coins’ value. Could they be sold online? I suppose so, but that is something most casual inquirers are not keen on doing. And, yes, and what did I mean about the next cycle at the beginning? Well, over the years, there are the darnedest groupings of calls. If I get one type of inquiry, I usually get a small number of additional inquiries along the same line. Singleton questions are more unusual. Why is that? Good question.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009 12:54:55 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)
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