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# Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Can it happen again?
Posted by Dave

It has been many years since a coin struck for circulation has become scarce. The 1950-D nickel was not struck for collectors only. The 1955-S cent was not coined to sell on a Mint Web site. Mintage totals were based on what the economy was demanding.

With the mintages of the first two of the six District of Columbia and Territorial quarters now known, we have the tantalizing number of 53,000,000 Puerto Rico quarters struck in Philadelphia.

That is the lowest total since 1962. So there is some basis for me to feel like a kid again. The 1962 quarter was not impossible to find in change. There were enough, but I seemed to see many more 1962-D quarters than the mintage ratio would have indicated, but then I lived in the part of the country where the coins came from Denver.

The 1958 quarter from Philadelphia was hard to find. Its mintage, though, was  7,235,652. That, too, was not rare, but I looked long and hard for it in my change and I was jubilant when the elderly man on my paper route who attempted to teach me to count to 10 in Welsh paid his bill with coins that included the 1958.

Is such a low mintage possible today? If the banking system continues to back up with old coins, can the next four quarters in the 2009 sequence continue their mintage declines?

If the Philadelphia production declines at the same rate through the six-design quarter run, we would be close to the 7 million figure.

It would be interesting to see how collectors would react to it.



Tuesday, March 31, 2009 1:57:43 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)  #  Comments [1]
# Monday, March 30, 2009
ANA takes back award
Posted by Dave

The calendar will turn the page to April on Wednesday. Spring is supposed to be here in Iola, but fresh snow frustrates those of us who believe the calendar.

Frustration of another kind perhaps is occurring on the American Numismatic Association Board of Governors.

One of the leftover items in my notebook from the March 6 meeting in Portland is a motion relating to the former executive director Christopher Cipoletti.

A twice-delayed arbitration is supposed to occur in April. The ANA board would like to get the matter of Cipoletti’s firing in 2007 behind it. Will it be delayed again? We’ll see.

One thing that wasn’t delayed was a request by former president Bill Horton to strip Cipoletti of a Presidential Award that Horton had given him in the final minutes of his presidency during the banquet at the Milwaukee summer convention in 2007.

When President Barry Stuppler brought the matter up at the tail end of the meeting, a motion was made by Vice President Patti Finner and Seconded by Gov. Walter Ostromecki to rescind the Presidential Award at Horton’s request.

Former ANA President Bob Campbell commented to the board, “I think it is a bad idea.” He also said it was hurtful.

Legal Counsel Ron Sirna said the motion was in order after remarking that Cipoletti had cost the organization $2 million to $3 million in litigation. “There is a substantial basis for Mr. Horton’s request.,” Sirna said.

The vote carried unanimously.



Monday, March 30, 2009 1:53:15 PM (GMT Daylight Time, UTC+01:00)  #  Comments [2]
# Friday, March 27, 2009
Cent sellout important milestone
Posted by Dave

What is more important? Yesterday word came that the uncirculated Lincoln commemorative silver dollar had sold out and also that the two-roll sets of 2009 Lincoln cents with the Birthplace reverse had also sold out.

I choose the cent sellout for three reasons.

The first is that despite the fact that there were some collectors who complained that the price was a rip-off at nearly 14 cents per coin ($8.95 plus $4.95 shipping equals $13.90 for 100 coins), others simply bought them and were glad to have the opportunity to do so.

The second reason is the sellout occurred in less than two weeks, the rolls having gone on sale March 13. This compares to the approximately six weeks that it has taken to reach the sellout point for the uncirculated Lincoln dollar. (The proof is close to a sellout, but not quite there yet.)

The third reason is I am surprised that there were only 100,000 two-roll sets available. I think other collectors will be, too, and that will focus their attention on the new design all the more.

Perhaps I should throw in a fourth reason, because this sellout sets us up for the release of the second of the four new reverse designs in May in a way that will keep us on the edge of our seats. There will be a group of collectors ready, willing and able to jump in to buy yet more two-roll sets. They might even snap these up quicker than the first two-roll set.

It is true that I have had a few more e-mails from lucky collectors who live in areas where the new coins are reaching circulation, but most of the country remains deprived of the new coins.

In fact, one desperate collector sent me a note that wanted to know why the Mint wasn’t retiring the old coinage and melting it down to make room for the new.

I personally haven’t been so focused on cents since about 1966. That seems to be true for others and that’s another good reason that the two-roll set sellout is more important than the commemorative sellout.

 That makes five reasons. If I made them funnier I could be on Letterman.



Friday, March 27, 2009 12:21:57 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)  #  Comments [11]
# Thursday, March 26, 2009
Take part in Braille sellout?
Posted by Dave

As I was getting ready to go to work today I heard a news story on CBS Radio about the introduction today of the Braille commemorative silver dollar.

Way to go, Mint, in getting such a story on the air.

Mint Director Ed Moy will be in Baltimore, Md., at the headquarters of the National Federation of the Blind to make a ceremonial presentation of the new coin to the organization’s president, Marc Maurer.

While collectors are aware of this kind of publicity, what truly matters to them is what time will the coin become available, and that is noon Eastern Daylight Time, and whether they want to buy the coin at all.

Going into their individual calculations will be matters of taste: Do they like the theme and the design?

They will look at the prices, $37.95 for the proof and $31.95 for the uncirculated – the same as for Lincoln.

They will consider the chances of a sellout, or will it slink away in December as the Bald Eagle coins did with unsold inventory remaining?

Increasing the possibility of a sellout is the mintage. At 400,000 pieces, it is 100,000 fewer than the Lincoln coin. That might be enough to offset the lower level of interest in Louis Braille as compared to Abraham Lincoln.

Ultimately, they will consider whether it is good value for the money, and that requires an evaluation of what might happen on the secondary market, especially on the online auction sites.

I expect a sellout – not a rapid one mind – but a nice comfortable sellout where most everyone who wants one will have more than enough opportunity to buy it directly from the Mint.

What are your purchase plans?



Thursday, March 26, 2009 12:53:17 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)  #  Comments [1]
# Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Clean out the attic
Posted by Dave

It could be hard times, or it could be just the next cycle, but people are scrambling to figure out the value of the numismatic items in their possession.

I have had an e-mail this week from someone who thinks he has a Continental dollar coin. I responded by telling him that he needed to have it authenticated because the odds of it being a copy are very high.

Another e-mail came in wanting to know the value of a miscellaneous group of coins. There were a few Morgan and Peace dollars, some pre-1965 silver coins that encompass Mercury dimes, Walking Liberty and Franklin half dollars, Washington quarters and a single Standing Liberty quarter from 1927.

In addition there were a few 40-percent silver half dollars from 1965-1969 and a parallel number of Washington quarters from the same period, probably indicating that they were saved in the mistaken belief that these too contained some silver as the half dollars of those years did.

There were also some Wheat-back cents and a couple of Buffalo nickels.

It is a typical accumulation of a type that was probably assembled in the middle 1960s as silver coins were disappearing from circulation.

While there was no great rarity among the coins listed, it certainly is nice to be able to tell the owner that the silver coins have a basic silver value of 9.5 times face value and the silver dollars are worth a little bit more than that.

These coins once sold won’t make the owner rich, but the proceeds might help bail out a stressed family budget for a week.

Selling the coins, though is a problem. The owner was not particularly close to a city with a coin dealer in it, so the trip to sell them will have to be piggybacked on another one, or the cost of travel will eat up much of the coins’ value. Could they be sold online? I suppose so, but that is something most casual inquirers are not keen on doing.

And, yes, and what did I mean about the next cycle at the beginning?

Well, over the years, there are the darnedest groupings of calls. If I get one type of inquiry, I usually get a small number of additional inquiries along the same line. Singleton questions are more unusual.

Why is that? Good question.



Wednesday, March 25, 2009 12:54:55 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)  #  Comments [0]
# Tuesday, March 24, 2009
What's gold's true edge?
Posted by Dave

This is Green Bay Packer country. I am a Packer fan. Certainly, though, I am not the biggest Packer fan in this building. I am happy when they win the weekly football game, especially when they beat the Chicago Bears. I am disappointed when they lose, and make that double when it is the Bears that beat them.

During uptrends for gold, the longer they go on they come more and more to resemble a sporting event rather than a market or economic event. Prices rise, the gold crowd cheers. Prices fall, they are disappointed.

With each gain of the past seven and a half years, advocates cheer and predict even higher prices. After each Packer win there is a discussion about what it will take to get into the playoffs and ultimately the Super Bowl.

This is human nature.

But how high is up for gold, really?

I think it is safe to say that gold will have a higher dollar price in 100 years, in 50 years, or even in 20 years, than today, but the closer you get to tomorrow, the harder it is to predict gold’s price with any accuracy.

Gold’s price fluctuates.

If I ever state that the Packers will beat the Bears in the next game by 100 points, people will correctly conclude I am either nuts or don’t know the first thing about how a football game is actually played.

If I write the Packers will win by 7 in the next outing, I will be slapped on the back and someone will probably offer to buy the next round of beers because the group, Packer fans all, will have something to drink to.

With gold, what current forecasts are the 100-point Packer equivalent and what forecasts are the 7-point edge?

That’s the true test for gold buyers today. Everybody is a gold fan, but there are limits even to gold.



Tuesday, March 24, 2009 12:53:51 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)  #  Comments [2]
# Monday, March 23, 2009
No wonder they're hard to get
Posted by Dave

No wonder it is hard to find District of Columbia quarters. The final mintage figures for the first of the six designs of 2009 are well below the lowest mintages for the state quarter program.

A total of 172,400,000 Duke Ellington quarters were struck. The Philadelphia Mint total is 83,600,000 and the Denver Mint total is 88,800,000.

This is less than half the production total for the lowest mintages for state quarters.

The Denver output for the 2008 Oklahoma quarter was 194,600,000. The Philadelphia output for the 2004 Iowa quarter was 213,800,000 pieces. The P-mint 2002 Ohio output was 217,400,000 and the P-Mint Maine output in 2003 was 217,400,000.

Oklahoma’s quarter also had the lowest two-mint total of 416,600,000.

I cannot call 172 million D.C. coins scarce, exactly, but when coupled with the phenomenon of a backed-up banking system, it is no wonder so few people are seeing the new coins in their change and why all collectors are finding it so hard to get a roll or two in the regular way from their local banks.

Even more interesting, the Puerto Rico quarter is next to be released and its final mintage is even lower than the D.C. mintage.

Only a combined 139,000,000 were coined for Puerto Rico. Once again Philadelphia’s output was the lower of the two mints at 53,000,000 as compared to Denver’s 86,000,000.

It would appear that many more collectors than usual will find themselves dependent upon the collector sets and other offerings from the U.S. Mint to get any examples at all for their collections.

Puerto Rican bags and rolls will be put on sale on the Mint Web site on March 30.



Monday, March 23, 2009 12:55:39 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)  #  Comments [2]
# Friday, March 20, 2009
When tokens take the spotlight
Posted by Dave

I had lunch with Russ Rulau yesterday. He was venturing out after having had a bad case of the flu that seems to be going around Iola this month.

He mentioned that he had lost nine pounds in the illness siege but was eating heartily at the Crystal Cafe to begin the process of regaining that weight.

We talked of many subjects, but one of note comes to mind. Even at the age of 82 he is working hard to maintain has database of token information.

He has authored books on Hard Times tokens, the tokens of Latin America and the magnum opus, Standard Catalog of United States Tokens, which incorporated the earlier Hard Times token work as well as those he wrote on merchant tokens and other subsets of the field.

Tokens have waxed and waned in popularity. They are truly historical American numismatic output. The Hard Times tokens are particularly apt today because they chronicled the sorry state of American business and finance in the 1830s and the political brinkmanship of the period between President Andrew Jackson and his opponents in Congress.

Jackson took an expansive view of the Presidency. He vetoed legislation he did not like or that he thought was contrary to the interests of ordinary citizens.

That may not sound particularly noteworthy except for the fact that previous Presidents vetoed bills only if they thought they were unconstitutional.

Jackson’s veto pen vastly expanded presidential power. The famous Jackson token declaring, “I Take the Responsibility,” showing him with sword in right hand and a money bag in the left over a strongbox makes a great deal of sense when seen in this light.

For now, gold bullion is overshadowing tokens, but Rulau is preparing for the day when tokens are back in the limelight and the inevitable explosion in values when they catch up to the recent gains registered by coins.



Friday, March 20, 2009 12:56:45 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)  #  Comments [1]
# Thursday, March 19, 2009
Lincoln dollar nears sellout
Posted by Dave

Sales of the Lincoln commemorative silver dollar by the U.S. Mint are rolling along. More and more it looks like a sellout in the making, perhaps as early as next week.

Anybody who wants the coin should get cracking.

There are 450,000 coins available to be sold individually and another 50,000 will be offered later this year in a special set.

As of the most recent Mint statistics in my possession the Mint needs to sell just 26,549 more coins to take care of the 450,000-coin group.

So far, proofs are the more popular with collectors. Some 296,488 have been sold. For the uncirculated version, the sales total so far is 126,963.

If the commemorative does indeed sell out, is this a signal of a renaissance in demand for the modern commemorative series as a whole, or is it simply a broken clock being right twice a day where after many years the Congress was bound to pick a theme that resonates with collectors?

We will know more starting March 26 when the Braille silver dollars go on sale.

Interestingly, the Mint offers a Braille dollar option with a special capsule that can be easily opened to allow buyers to touch the readable Braille on the reverse.

This is an interesting idea, but those buyers who do indeed open the holder will find that they are reducing the collectible value of the coin if they touch it.

Perhaps this is a series where a cheap bronze duplicate medal would have made sense for those buyers who might have the urge to finger their coins.



Thursday, March 19, 2009 12:56:36 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)  #  Comments [2]
# Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Why the 'P mint Harrison dollar sellout?
Posted by Dave


There is something of a paradox going on with William Henry Harrison Presidential dollars.

For the first time in the Presidential dollar series, the total mintage has dropped below 100 million coins when you add the Philadelphia and Denver mintages together.

This continues a downward trend that with one minor interruption with the Andrew Jackson coins has been relentless since the series began with over 340 million George Washington coins.

What’s the paradox you ask?

Well, I had an e-mail from the U.S. Mint to tell me that the “P” mint rolls of the coins, which contain 25 pieces, are already sold out.

How can this be with dollar coins backing up all over the place?

Is there some hidden source of demand that I am not thinking of? Have William Henry Harrison coin clubs sprouted across America secretly?

I wish I knew.

Last week’s Mint Statistics column reported some 29,000 rolls of “P” mint coins sold, but that number is 8,000 less than for the previous Martin Van Buren coin, which in turn was lower than previous issues.

One thing that does make sense is that the “P” mint rolls disappeared first. According to mintage figures, Philadelphia struck 43,260,000 dollar coins while Denver made 55,160,000.

Both mintages seem ample, especially when considered in the light of the huge declines in mintages for coins that actually do circulate, the cents through quarters.

So why the early sellout?

It is a mystery to me.





Wednesday, March 18, 2009 12:51:11 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)  #  Comments [2]