Buzz with Dave Harper - Friday, November 21, 2008

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Friday, November 21, 2008

More sales numbers and sellouts
Posted by Dave

Yesterday the proof one-ounce gold Buffalo sold out. The latest sales number is 11,543. That won’t exactly make this issue scarce.

The tenth-ounce proof is also sold out. Its sales total is similar at 10,861.

The proof half ounce, quarter ounce and four-coin set are still on sale. Sales totals are 2,003, 3,909 and 7,287, respectively, for these.

For the uncirculated versions of the Buffalo coin with “W” mintmark, the quarter- and the tenth-ounce are off sale. They have sales totals of 3,787 and 12,608, respectively.

For the uncirculated coins still on sale, the one-ounce is 2,729. The half ounce is 2,474 and the four-coin set is 5,331.

Letting these numbers sink in probably helps in understanding why some collectors are so excited about the platinum American Eagle “W” uncirculated coins with lower sales numbers. The quarter- and tenth-ounce coins are sold out and the individual coin totals are 2,027 and 2,504, respectively. The four-coin set is also sold out. It has a sales number of 2,165.

The ounce and half ounce are still on sale with the sales numbers of 669 and 1,061, respectively

All the proof platinum American Eagles are still on sale and the 10th anniversary set has gone back on sale after a long hiatus. That will disappoint at least one collector who called me several weeks back wondering why I hadn’t declared it sold out so he could sell his sets on eBay for more money.

The uncirculated and proof gold American Eagles are all still on sale as is the uncirculated “W” silver American Eagle. The proof version of the silver American Eagle is no longer available.

To find out the current sales figures that I didn’t provide here, just check the Mint Statistics elsewhere on the NumismaticNews.net Web site.

11/21/2008 9:01:50 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)

Comments [1]

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Coins mark end of finds era
Posted by Dave

The debut yesterday of the Abraham Lincoln commemorative silver dollar celebrating the 200th anniversary of his birth started me thinking.

In a strange way, this silver dollar and the four special cent designs that will be issued in 2009 will stand as the last hurrah for the veterans of the circulation finds era.

Even though there are still many of us who got started in numismatics checking through our change and rolls from the local bank on a regular basis, our numbers can no longer grow. From here they can only shrink because of demographics.

You have to be at least 50 years old to have any kind of memory at all of that period of time, and that is a number that works only if you agree with me that the circulation finds era ended in 1968.

I pick 1968 because that is the year I began to collect nickels. They were the last coins left in my area that had any variety of dates to examine. I had done all the other denominations as much as I could. The few silver dimes and quarters that were found in change were usually shiny new 1964 and 1964-D coins.

Some hobbyists might put the end of the circulation finds era in late 1964 or early 1965 when the roll and bag boom went bust and marked the peak of public participation in numismatics. Even with the state quarter program I doubt that there are as many committed collectors now as then even though there might be more casual accumulators.

Whatever date you choose for the era’s end, you still end up with collectors in their 50s. Fortunately for the hobby, it is a large group and collectors in their 50s have been the most active and most numerous for the last 100 years.

Since many of us started with the Lincoln cent in the circulation finds era, in a roundabout way these new 2009 coins commemorate the circulation finds generation and the experiences we have had in numismatics.

11/20/2008 8:59:42 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)

Comments [1]

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Spotlight: good or bad?
Posted by Dave

A columnist in the New York Post wrote about the continuing high demand for bullion coins, both U.S. and foreign. I happened to see it and John and Nancy Wilson kindly e-mailed me a copy in case I had not. My thanks go to them.

There was nothing in it that the numismatic media have not been reporting for some time now.
What is significant is the fact that it is mentioned in a non-hobby paper. Often when numismatic trends are discussed outside the hobby, the trend is getting close to coming to an end.

We had wonderful press in 1989 about coins going to Wall Street. That year happened to be the high point for Morgan silver dollars. They haven’t returned to those heights since. The rest of the hobby areas also began a downturn that lasted until the mid 1990s.

We’ve had a great run since the last coin market bottomed. This was fueled in part by the state quarter program.

But another factor that helped is that gold and silver bottomed out in 2001 and began an upward climb. Now don’t get me wrong, bullion speculation is not numismatics, but there is a connection.

Many dealers generate nice cash flows handling bullion coins. When demand gets particularly hot, as has been the case this year, the demand for metals spills over into coins not usually as appealing to the bullion coin buyers because they are not even troy weights, such as U.S. $20 gold pieces.

While it is always good to be noticed, pardon me if my first thought this time is “Yikes.”

11/19/2008 8:52:46 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)

Comments [0]

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

When Lincoln's lessons apply
Posted by Dave

It is an interesting historical coincidence that just as we are about to celebrate the 200th anniversary of the birth of our 16th President, Abraham Lincoln, the nation elects a President who deeply admires him.

Certainly the crises that face the nation in 2008 are not the same as those that afflicted the country during Lincoln’s term of office, but the quality of dogged determination to set a goal and see things through despite the distractions and panics of those around him is certainly one that is needed in the coming months.

Tomorrow is the official unveiling of the Lincoln silver dollar (An earlier version posted two hours before this is written said four cents. My apologies. My automatic pilot must have kicked in as I was writing, but a kind reader sent me an e-mail about it.) The chosen place is Gettysburg, Pa., where the tide-turning battle for the Union was fought in early July 1863.

Tomorrow also happens to be the anniversary of Lincoln’s Gettysburg Address. The timing and location are good choices by the Mint for the event.

But while I am on the subject of Lincoln, there is something else that can be studied by our new leaders from the Lincoln administration. That is how the U.S. Treasury managed to raise the incredibly large sums to fight the Civil War without sending the country into an inflationary death spiral as some worry about today with our banking system bailout.

Salmon P. Chase’s Treasury was forced to be innovative. National Bank Notes were introduced, but instead of just printing them, every bank in the country that wanted to issue them had to first buy federal bonds – debt – to back them. These bonds guaranteed that should the bank go bust, the bonds could be sold to cover the value of the notes to holders of the currency.

The bonds were loans to the Treasury to pay for the war. The bonds also were assets of the banks that held them. This is a concept that has worked for almost a century and half. Even today, federal bonds are the assets of the Social Security trust fund. They also are loans to the federal government.

Chase proved that large sums of money properly handled need not be inherently destructive and in fact were beneficial.

On the other hand, the South had no such innovative finance. Paper money was printed in larger and larger quantities and an inflationary spiral helped destroy the Southern economy ahead of the Union Army.

11/18/2008 9:03:35 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)

Comments [0]

Monday, November 17, 2008

When buying seems a triumph
Posted by Dave

On Saturday as I was doing my weekly rounds, I spotted a sign at a gas station stating the price of a gallon of unleaded regular was $1.979. That’s the first time I have seen the price that low in a long time and it is less than half the price I was paying in July.

I didn’t need gas, but I had to stop in. How could I not? I wanted to be able to tell everyone I knew what I paid.

I pumped less than four gallons into the tank. The pump showed $7.51, which I pushed up to $7.55.

Then I went inside. I told the woman at the register that I didn’t really need gas, but I had to stop when I saw the sign.

She laughed. She said I wasn’t the only one. She took my money.

The next guy to the cash register waved a $10 bill in the air and that was his total tab. He must have done what I had.

It was a great feeling, a minor victory in the present economic battle. I didn’t know the other guy. He seemed to be enjoying the moment as I was.

Have you ever bought a coin where the purpose was the ability to brag that you got it, or that you got it at an incredible price?

Collectors do that. There is a competitiveness behind our acquisitiveness. In fact, the existence of registry sets at the Web sites of the major grading services is a testimonial to this impulse.

It seems strange. Another collector craving is privacy. We don’t want to be marked for burglary or robbery.

So we have sets that are assembled and sold under assumed names. Understandable.

On Saturday I could enjoy a moment in the daily routine. It satisfied my acquisitiveness and neither of us purchasers knew the other.

11/17/2008 9:02:17 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)

Comments [2]

Friday, November 14, 2008

Extra hassle from extra issue
Posted by Dave

Under the heading of “no good deed goes unpunished,” I cannot help but relate this anecdote relating to the first State of the Industry special issue of Numismatic News that we recently put into the mail.

It was filled with commentary from the numismatic industry’s leaders as well as from readers.

The cover date is Nov. 14. That is three days after the prior regular issue and four days before the following regular issue. It is an extra issue.

I received a phone call Wednesday from an upset caller. He wanted to tell me in no uncertain terms that he had canceled his subscription because we had completely changed Numismatic News.

I told him we hadn’t completely changed the paper and asked him what was the date of the issue that he was referring to. I thought I knew what he would tell me and I was correct in this.

When he told me, I said indeed this particular issue was different, but it was a special extra issue.

That didn’t stop him.

He wanted me to know that Ken Pines did not have his usual ad on Pages 2 and 3 and rattled off a few more of his favorite advertisers that he did not spot on the usual pages.

I repeated that this was a special extra issue and the usual advertisers would be in their usual places in the following issue.

I asked why he called me after he had already canceled his subscription.

He responded that he wanted to be sure I knew he didn’t like the fact that we had completely changed the paper.

I repeated that we had not completely changed the paper, but it was a point I knew I had already lost. After all, he had the evidence. He had a completely different looking issue in his hand.

I thanked him for his call.

11/14/2008 8:57:24 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)

Comments [4]

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Last platinum numbers before sale
Posted by Dave

Going into the Mint clearance sale Nov. 15 I know some collectors will be evaluating the possibilities of low-mintage American Eagle coins, especially the platinum versions that I have spent so much time on in the last few days.

I have the latest sales figures here and that might help those trying to figure out the angles.

The “W” uncirculated platinum American Eagle numbers went up a tad.

The one-ounce is at 423. The half ounce is 849. The quarter ounce is 2,115 and the tenth ounce is 2,504. The number for the four-coin set is 1,257.

The proof platinum numbers start with 1,670 one-ounce coins. The half ounce is 837. The quarter ounce is 1,081. The tenth ounce is 2,398. The four-coin set is 1,571.

Other numbers for other Mint offerings are posted in Mint Statistics every Thursday.

11/13/2008 9:35:55 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)

Comments [4]

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Gold about to drop?
Posted by Dave

When will gold drop below $700 an ounce? It could be soon.

Gold is an inflation hedge and right now inflation is disappearing.

Oh, I know that that the Federal Reserve has created a lot of new money. But the offset to that is a lot of old money has been destroyed by falling house prices, soured mortgages, falling stock prices, rising credit card defaults and failing businesses.

The dollars lost in the current economic recession are every bit as important to the total demand that puts the price level where it is. If they outnumber the new dollars created by the Fed, well, then deflationary or disinflationary forces are stronger than inflationary forces.

Right now gold is the exception. Copper has retreated so far that even the old copper-zinc cents of 1982 and before are not worth melting. The metal value in a nickel has gone from almost twice face value to half face value, a decline of roughly three-quarters.

Silver is down. Platinum is on its back because of the near shutdown of the auto industry.

Only gold remains. Is it a forecast of things to come, or the last stronghold of wishful thinking?

11/12/2008 8:50:15 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)

Comments [1]

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

ANA presidential race starts
Posted by Dave

One presidential race has ended. A new one has begun for the 32,000 members of the American Numismatic Association.

Clifford Mishler, retired CEO of Krause Publications, and current first-term member of the ANA board of governors, has declared his candidacy for ANA president.

This sets a race in motion because incumbent Vice President Patti Finner announced her intention to run for president during the ANA summer convention.

By throwing his hat in the ring, it looks like Mishler guarantees a majority change of five members in the nine-member body elected in July of 2007.

Gov. Radford Stearns recently died. Ed Rochette and Chet Krause will not run again. Rochette cannot run because of term limits. Krause does not want to run. President Barry Stuppler leaves office. Either Finner or Mishler, whoever loses the presidential race, will also leave.

This scenario assumes that incumbents Wendell Wolka, Joe Boling and Walt Ostromecki are all re-elected.

Alan Herbert is now also an incumbent. He joined the board after Stearn’s death, but he was also a member of the old board that had been voted out by the membership.

For students of ANA politics, it looks like exciting times. For friends of the ANA who would like to see a stable organization working through its manifold problems, these are nail-biting times.

Will the new officers and board members elected in July 2009 work in continuity with the present board, or will there be more sharp changes? That’s the big question that members will want answered before they cast their mail ballots next year.

11/11/2008 8:58:29 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)

Comments [0]

Monday, November 10, 2008

Mint cuts bullion products drastically
Posted by Dave

Stores have clearance sales. Now the U.S. Mint will have one too.

Starting at 12:01 a.m. Nov. 15, the Mint will be offering hundreds of current and past products to collectors to clear out their two current fulfillment centers in preparation for moving to a new one in Plainfield, Ind.

The news confirms online speculation that some Mint collector versions of bullion coin products will not be offered again. However, the extent of program terminations perhaps surprises.

Uncirculated platinum American Eagles with the “W” mintmark in all sizes end with this year’s coinages.

American Eagle platinum proofs come to an end, too, except for the one-ounce coin.

Uncirculated gold American Eagles will be discontinued except for the one-ounce size.

All American Buffalo uncirculated “W” collector versions will be ended.

Proof American Buffalo gold coins will be stopped also except for the one-ounce coin.

Other terminated products include new ones like Presidential dollar Signature Sets and the proof Presidential dollars sold individually.

Old ones, like state quarter First Day Coin Covers and Greetings from America Portfolios and Card Sets, are coming to and end after the 10-year program concludes.

Mint Deputy Director Andrew D. Brunhart says of the clearance sale, “It will be limited time. First come, first served. No household limits. All sales will be final. If you’re wondering, we won’t exceed any Mint limits.”

The sale will conclude at 5 p.m. Dec. 19, but some products are likely to be gone well before then.

Of those that don’ sell, Brunhart says, “We’re going to be doing a significant detrashing and melting (of) the products that do not sell by Dec. 19. Those products will be immediately broken down and sent to the melter.”

The clearance sale is part of a major re-evaluation of the Mint’s product line. Brunhart says the product offerings will be reduced from more than 550 available in 2008 to roughly 200.

Leftover 2008 products will stay on sale until June, when they will get the same detrashing and melting treatment.

“From now on at the end of each year, we will examine our portfolio to make sure the warehouse is not stuffed with products they (Mint customers) don’t want,” Brunhart says.

“We’re undergoing a significant renewal of our numismatic portfolio in 2009. We have too many products. We have heard loud and clear from our collecting community. We are responding to that. We will be focusing our resources on key products (with the) broadest appeal.

“Fewer products to concentrate on will enable us to bring out and offer much earlier in the calendar year our key products.”

The benefit to collectors will be earlier release of hobby favorites.

Brunhart says, four of these, proof sets, silver proof sets, uncirculated sets and silver Eagles (will be offered) in January of each year.”

Below are the complete lists of discontinued and last chance products:

Discontinued Products

United States Mint Presidential $1 Coin Historical Signature SetsTM
United States Mint Presidential $1 Coin – Individual Proof CoinsTM
American Eagle Platinum Uncirculated Coins (all options)
American Eagle Platinum Proof 1⁄2, 1⁄4, 1/10, and Four-Coin Sets
American Eagle Gold Uncirculated 1⁄2, 1⁄4, 1/10, and Four-Coin Sets
American Buffalo Uncirculated Gold Coins (all options)
American Buffalo Proof 1⁄2, 1⁄4, 1/10, and Four-Coin Sets
50 State Quarters® First Day Coin Covers (continue through 2008)
Greetings From America Portfolios and Card Sets
Coin and Die Sets
Collectible Spoons

Last Chance Product Listing

Annual Sets
2007 United States Mint Proof Set®
2007 United States Mint 50 State Quarters Proof SetTM
2004 United States Mint Uncirculated Coin Set(R)
2006 United States Mint Uncirculated Coin Set®
2007 United States Mint Uncirculated Coin Set®
2007 United States Mint Silver Proof SetTM
2007 United States Mint 50 State Quarters Silver Proof SetTM
50 State Quarters® Bags & Rolls
Wisconsin Two-Roll Set
Minnesota Two-Roll Set
Minnesota 1,000-Coin Bag (P)
Minnesota 1,000-Coin Bag (D)
Oregon 1,000-Coin Bag (D)
Colorado 100-Coin Bag (P)
Nebraska 1,000-Coin Bag (P)
Nebraska 1,000-Coin Bag (D)
Nebraska 100-Coin Bag (D)
Colorado 1,000-Coin Bag (P)
Colorado 1,000-Coin Bag (D)
North Dakota 100-Coin Bag (D)
North Dakota 1,000-Coin Bag (D)
South Dakota 100-Coin Bag (D)
Montana 1,000-Coin Bag (P)
Wyoming 100-Coin Bag (P)
Wyoming 1,000-Coin Bag (P)
Wyoming 100-Coin Bag (D)
Wyoming 1,000-Coin Bag (D)
Utah Two-Roll Set
Utah 1,000-Coin Bag (P)
Utah 1,000-Coin Bag (D)
Oklahoma Two-Roll Set
Oklahoma 100-Coin Bag (P)
Oklahoma 100-Coin Bag (D)
Oklahoma 1,000-Coin Bag (P)
Oklahoma 1,000-Coin Bag (D)
New Mexico Two-Roll Set
New Mexico 100-Coin Bag (P)
New Mexico 100-Coin Bag (D)
New Mexico 1,000-Coin Bag (P)
New Mexico 1,000-Coin Bag (D)
Arizona Two-Roll Set
Arizona 1,000-Coin Bag (P)
Arizona 100-Coin Bag (D)
Arizona 100-Coin Bag (P)
Arizona 1,000-Coin Bag (D)
Other Bags & Rolls
2001 Sacagawea Golden Dollar Roll (P)
2001 Kennedy Half-Dollar 200-Coin Bag
2001 Kennedy Half-Dollar Two-Roll Set
2002 Sacagawea Golden Dollar 2000-Coin Bag (P)
2002 Sacagawea Golden Dollar 2000-Coin Bag (D)
2003 Jefferson Nickel Two-Roll Set
2004 Sacagawea Golden Dollar 2000-Coin Bag (D)
2005 Ocean in View Nickel 1,000-Coin Bag (P)
2005 Ocean in View Nickel 1,000-Coin Bag (D)
2005 Sacagawea Golden Dollar 2000-Coin Bag (P)
50 State Quarters® First Day Coin Covers
New Jersey
Georgia
Connecticut
South Carolina
New Hampshire
Virginia
New York
North Carolina
Rhode Island
Vermont
Kentucky
Tennessee
Ohio
Louisiana
Indiana
Mississippi
Illinois
Alabama
Maine
Missouri
Arkansas
Michigan
Florida
Texas
Iowa
Wisconsin
California
Minnesota
Oregon
Kansas
West Virginia
Nevada
Nebraska
Colorado
North Dakota
South Dakota
Montana
Washington
Idaho
Wyoming
Utah
Presidential $1 Coin Coin Covers
George Washington
John Adams
Thomas Jefferson
James Madison
50 State Quarters® Coin & Die Sets
North Carolina (P)
Rhode Island
Tennessee (D)
Maine (D)
Iowa (P)
Oregon (P)
Nebraska (D)
Nebraska (P)
Colorado (P)
North Dakota (D)
North Dakota (P)
South Dakota (D)
South Dakota (P)
Montana (D)
Montana (P)
Washington (P)
Idaho (D)
Idaho (P)
Wyoming (P)
Wyoming (D)
Utah (D)
50 State Quarters® Collector’s Spoons
Iowa
West Virginia
Nevada
Nebraska
Colorado
North Dakota
South Dakota
Montana
Washington
Idaho
Wyoming
Utah
Oklahoma
New Mexico
Arizona
50 State Quarters® Greetings from America Series
1999 Card Set
1999 Portfolio
2000 Card Set
2000 Portfolio
2001 Card Set
2001 Portfolio
2002 Card Set
2002 Portfolio
2003 Card Set
2003 Portfolio
2004 Card Set
2004 Portfolio
2005 Card Set
2005 Portfolio
2006 Card Set
2006 Portfolio
2007 Card Set
2007 Portfolio
Card Set Album
Portfolio Album
Westward Journey Nickel Sets
2004 Westward Journey Nickel SeriesTM Coin Set
2006 Westward Journey Nickel SeriesTM Coin Set
Special Sets
50 State Quarters® And Euro Coin Collection
Official Coin Collecting Starter Kit

11/10/2008 8:51:53 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)

Comments [8]

Friday, November 07, 2008

Funeral a sad event
Posted by Dave

Today is the funeral of Fort Worth, Texas, coin dealer Helen Wallace, who died Oct. 29 at the age of 64. I won’t be in attendance, but my thoughts will be there when the clock strikes 10 this morning.

She was the wife of the late R.E. “Bob” Wallace, who died in 1999. He was a coin dealer for many years.

Helen continued to operate the coin and stamp business after his death. She was in a new building that has been open only for the last couple of years. The necessity of it was the city of Fort Worth used the powers of eminent domain to take the prior permanent location, forcing Helen to run her business from temporary quarters for years on end.

I happened to visit her temporary operation during a visit to the Texas Numismatic Association convention a number of years back. I have forgotten just how many.

I observed first hand that she enjoyed her cigarettes and a good stiff drink. I don’t know if the brandy old fashioneds she had on hand were for the benefit of the Wisconsin delegation she was hosting (there was more than one of us Krause employees on hand), because I note that in her formal obituary it is written that “Mrs. Wallace was truly a one of a kind, pistol packing, Pall Mall smoking, bourbon drinking tornado of a woman who believed strongly in the rights of individual landowners.”

Perhaps she had just run out of bourbon that day.

During my visit I paid my respects to the derelict B. Max Mehl building. He died in 1957. He pioneered mass marketing coins. Bob Wallace had acquired a number of Mehl’s assets, including canceled checks with the famous coin dealer’s signature.

When it is time to go back in 2010 for the proposed American Numismatic Association convention, Fort Worth won’t feel quite the same without a visit to Helen’s shop.

Rest in peace.

11/7/2008 9:03:21 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)

Comments [0]

Thursday, November 06, 2008

Platinum numbers studied carefully
Posted by Dave

I was sitting in the chair at the dentist this morning during my usual blog posting time. I hope the regulars will forgive my tardiness.

I am glad to see comments being posted about the mintage figures for the “W” uncirculated platinum American Eagle coins.

First, I will answer the inquiry about where I get the numbers. I obtain them directly from the Mint’s press office as they become available each week. I appreciate the Mint’s help in getting them to me because I know how closely these are followed, especially at the end of each year.

As far as the comparisons to the “W” proofs go, I will mention that these numbers are published each week in Numismatic News and are also published each Thursday on the www.numismaster.com Web site and the www.numismaticnews.net Web site.

The uncirculated ounce stands at 393, while the proof version currently stands at 1,560.

The half-ounce uncirculated total is 802 and the proof half ounce is 781.

For the quarter ounce, the uncirculated is 2,138 and the proof is 1,025.

The tenth-ounce uncirculated is 2,500 and the proof version is 2,224.

The four-coin set of uncirculated coins stands at 1,191 and the proof four-coin set is 1,390.

That’s it for today. Let the parsing begin.

11/6/2008 10:25:54 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)

Comments [1]

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