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 Friday, October 31, 2008
Count up October's losses
Posted by Dave

It is the end of October. Many of us are licking our financial wounds. What do we have to show for it?

I remember talking with my parents and grandparents about how the stock market crash of 1929 and the subsequent Great Depression affected the family.

There was no compellingly interesting story of great wealth lost, jobs vanishing or huge suffering. Everything occurred on a relatively ordinary scale. There was some money lost in a bank failure. There was some loss of money in stocks, but nothing too dramatic. Life got harder but it went on.

The one exception perhaps was my oldest uncle who bought some very cheap 3M stock, which in the early 1930s served as a kind of scrip in the area he lived. The profits on it helped pay for his college education. He was clever.

What will I be able to say to family members down the road about the financial crash of 2008? Perhaps it is too soon to tell, but life goes on despite the shrinking balance in my company 401(k) account.

I had my hair cut yesterday. The woman who cuts it said she heard that silver might be a good investment. I told her I didn’t think it would be a good fit for her.

The experience reminded me of something I had read about Joseph P. Kennedy, father of President John F. Kennedy. He sold out before the crash in 1929 because he was hearing stock tips from barbers and shoe shine boys. He figured the boom on the market had gone on too long when that started happening.

Is yesterday’s silver conversation a similar warning? It is worth considering the possibility.



10/31/2008 8:57:58 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [1]
 Thursday, October 30, 2008
What's the most important coin?
Posted by Dave

What’s the most important coin in your life? No, I am not asking what is the most expensive coin that you own, although I suppose your answer to the first question could be the second.

I have been working on a holiday gift guide insert for Numismatic News and quite naturally I hope that some readers will plan on giving coins for Christmas.

Gifts of this kind can awaken an interest in the hobby, but the giver probably doesn’t know what specific coin might do the trick.

For me, the coin that got it all started was a 1909 Lincoln cent. There is nothing special about it. It had no collector value when I found it in 1963, but it was the spark that set the blaze of my numismatic interest.

I probably would not have even looked at the date on the cent except I was going through every cent in the house as the result of a comic book ad that I had read that promised to pay good money for certain cents dated before 1940.

I wanted in on that action.

I might have been 8, but even then I knew money made the world go around and I wanted to go along for the ride.

Well, I found that cent. My mother noticed my sudden interest in coins and before you know it I was in a hobby shop buying a Lincoln cent album. She didn’t even wait for Christmas. That was fortunate for me. It was the perfect gift at the perfect time.

I still have that cent and I consider it to be the most important coin I own, though it has no significance for anyone but me.

How do you define the most important coin that you own?



10/30/2008 8:59:27 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [2]
 Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Turkey or coins? What's your choice?
Posted by Dave

What do you do on Thanksgiving weekend? Eat turkey? Watch football? Visit family? All of the above? One thing I’ll bet you rarely do is work.

Coin collectors in Michigan attend the Michigan State Numismatic Society show in Dearborn, beginning the day after Thanksgiving and running through Sunday. This year the dates are Nov. 28-30.

It is a remarkable event. I have been there twice in 30 years. I am glad I have seen the show, but as I told MSNS secretary-treasurer Joe LeBlanc, when I interviewed him for Coin Chat Radio this week, I am even more glad that I haven’t seen any more of them. After all, I like my Thanksgiving’s at home better.

Naturally, I asked him how his organization could make a success of the show on such a counterintuitive schedule.

Listen to his answer starting tomorrow morning at 11 a.m. Central Time at www.coinchatradio.com.

Fortunately for me, our former company president, Cliff Mishler, is from Michigan. He made the show a family event. He is usually accompanied by his son-in-law, Randy Thern, and sometimes grandkids.

Mishler does what he enjoys and it has given the rest of the Numismatic News staff a break to enjoy their own holiday traditions.

Thanks, Cliff. And good luck again this year, MSNS.



10/29/2008 9:19:34 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Tuesday, October 28, 2008
What's correct value?
Posted by Dave

As I sit here this morning wondering what to write, my eye keeps going back to my watch. It is a euro watch. It was created by the Austrian Mint before the euro was actually introduced into circulation in 2002.

The face of the watch depicts the design of the 1-euro coin, though it is much larger than the coin is.

I think about this because of the large fluctuations that have occurred in the foreign exchange markets since the euro was created.

At the beginning of 1999 the euro came into existence as an accounting convention in the nations that agreed to use it. Their national currencies were fixed to the euro.

On the foreign exchange market the euro began trading at approximately $1.17.

Wow, you might say. The euro today is $1.25. That’s remarkably stable.

If you had no other information, that would seem to be a reasonable conclusion. However, the euro trades everyday on the world’s foreign exchange market and its price has been anything but stable.

It began life by declining against the dollar. It got to 82 cents in 2002 and then began to climb. It hit $1.60 just a few months ago and began to decline again.

Now it is at $1.25. Who knows? It might even see $1.17 again in time for its 10th anniversary Jan. 1.

Here’s the test. What’s the correct value?



10/28/2008 8:57:38 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Monday, October 27, 2008
Copper dominates cent change
Posted by Dave

Nothing gets response from readers like typographical errors. The latest head slapper for me in the office was a statement in Numismatic News that 2009 is the 200th anniversary of the Lincoln cent, instead of the 200th anniversary of Lincoln’s birth. It is the 100th anniversary of the Lincoln cent.

Fortunately, such a significant year as 2009 will give me many more opportunities to point out the double Lincoln anniversary and to do it correctly.

It will also give collectors a chance to scrutinize their change.

In my Saturday errands I collected change in several stopping-off points. When I got home and emptied my pockets, I checked the coins. There was nothing particularly noteworthy about the larger denominations, except perhaps for how rapidly the Alaskan quarter has reached circulation in this area.

The interesting aspect was the cents. I had nine of them. Four were years after 1982 and were made of copper-plated zinc. Five were the pre-1982 95 percent copper alloy.

While it is not unknown for me to get a copper cent in change, the proportion is not usually so high. Perhaps a business got a roll from a bank full of older cents and I just happened to be in the check-out line when it was being used.

The current combination of recession and the sharply falling price of copper might result in even more of the older cents reaching circulation. People are digging deeper to keep paying their bills and a 95 percent copper cent has a metallic value now of little more than face value, removing any possible incentive to keep it.

Check your cents and see what you come up with.



10/27/2008 8:59:38 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [1]
 Friday, October 24, 2008
Fractional Eagles to go on sale Monday
Posted by Dave

The Mint issued a memo announcing availability of fractional platinum American Eagles and the tenth-ounce gold American Eagle. See below:


October 24, 2008
 
MEMORANDUM TO ALL AMERICAN EAGLE BULLION COIN AUTHORIZED PURCHASERS
 
SUBJECT:       2008–Dated Bullion Coin Products
 
On Monday, October 27, 2008, the United States Mint will resume taking orders for 2008-dated American Eagle One-Tenth Ounce Gold Bullion Coins and all sizes of American Eagle Platinum Bullion Coins.
 
Final inventory for these bullion coins is based on current in-house blank supplies and some supplies are very limited.  The United States Mint will allocate these remaining coins among the Authorized Purchasers (APs).
 
The United States Mint will use a slight modification of its standard allocation process, which is as follows:
 
Monday morning, the inventory available for sale that week will be divided into two equal pools for each bullion coin product.
 
The first pool for each bullion coin product will be allocated equally to all active American Eagle Gold One-Tenth Ounce and American Eagle Platinum APs respectively (active APs are those which have purchased American Eagle Gold One-Tenth Ounce or American Eagle Platinum Bullion Coins in the past three fiscal years).

The second pool will be allocated based on each AP’s sales performance for each bullion coin product in the last three fiscal years (e.g., an AP who purchased 30% of all American Eagle Gold One-Tenth Ounce Coins during this time will be allocated 30% of this second pool). 

Each AP will be advised via fax Monday morning (or if a government holiday, Tuesday morning) of its allocation, and will have until 3 p.m. on the following Friday to place an order for its allocated coins.

Any unordered coins remaining after 3 p.m. Friday will be put back into the pool for allocation the following Monday only until coin inventory for each product is depleted.

Included in the communication with each AP’s initial allocation on October 27 will be its allocation percentage based on sales performance.
 
Please note: The inventory for the American Eagle Platinum One-Tenth Ounce Bullion Coins is very limited and will be allocated to the Authorized Purchasers with the highest sales performances for the past three fiscal years for this product.
 
Available inventory will remain on allocation each week for the American Eagle Gold One Ounce and American Eagle Silver Bullion Coins.  
 
We will keep you informed when more information becomes available for the American Buffalo Bullion Coins.
 
Thank you for your patience and your continued support of the United States Mint Bullion Coin Program.
 
If you have any questions regarding this process, please contact me at (202) 354-7519.
 



10/24/2008 3:17:40 PM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
It was called Black Friday
Posted by Dave

You can tell what kind of mood I am in this morning. The financial markets don’t look good. There is nothing I can do about gold dropping under $700 an ounce or silver under $9 an ounce, except reflect on my experience and on history.

I googled Black Friday. Interestingly, the first references deal with the first shopping day after Thanksgiving. That is not what I was looking for. I was looking for the real Black Friday.

I did the search because many years ago when I was a student I read biographies of Jay Gould and Jim Fisk. They were partners in an effort to corner the gold supply in 1869.

Friday Sept. 24, 1869, was the critical day of the attempt. It went down in Wall Street lore as Black Friday.

The floating supply of gold in New York City on which so much of the nation’s finances rested was not that large. The Gould-Fisk effort to corner the market was brazen and very public. The value of the precious metal was set in trading in the Gold Room of the New York Stock Exchange.

Imagine two people being able to threaten the integrity of the financial system.

On Black Friday, Gould got wind of the fact that the U.S. Treasury would release gold into the market. He secretly reversed his positions, selling what he had accumulated and leaving his partner in the dark.

Fisk very visibly kept trading and was loudly bullish until the avalanche of public gold overwhelmed him.

Gould had left his partner to dangle because both could not get out of the market in one piece. Gould elected himself to be the surviving partner, though he later advised Fisk to renege on his commitments to buy gold. Fisk did. Many were ruined financially as a result.

Who is playing Gould today and who is Fisk, I don’t know, but fortunes are being made and lost.



10/24/2008 9:10:07 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Thursday, October 23, 2008
Get hands dirty and make a profit
Posted by Dave

Are you a hands-on coin collector? Do you get the urge from time to time to get your hands dirty looking at coins – actually holding them, even smelling them?

There are fewer and fewer opportunities to do that today. So much value is embedded in third-party opinions that the very idea of looking at a coin in a raw state now often seems like a blow to good numismatic order.

However, for collectors to be truly collectors, you need to get in there and get your hands dirty. How many people who are collectors actually know the difference between genuine surfaces and coins that have been altered in some fashion? The only way to learn the difference is to make the physical comparisons.

Even bullion coin buyers seem to be subject to the same condition mania. They don’t want to touch the pieces. It should make no difference to the value of a coin bought strictly as bullion as to what condition of uncirculated it might grade,  or whether it has toned a little or whether it is not the current year.

None of that should make a difference, but it does. Ten ounces of gold are still 10 ounces of gold even when they aren’t quite as nice looking as brand new pieces. Buyers seem to want it current or pretty. They pay through the nose for the privilege of obtaining just-off-the-coining-press issues like they would for the latest convertible or iPod.

Those who like to get their hands dirty will benefit if they trade the nice looking stuff that they might have that commands a high premium for the less pristine. In other words, if you have nice 2008 American Eagles, trade them for lesser pieces. You will get more ounces of gold or silver for your long-term holding and you will be doing a good deed by giving someone else who wants the very best in the current market the opportunity to pay through the nose to get it.



10/23/2008 9:08:57 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Gold in for it now?
Posted by Dave

Gold’s run up to record prices earlier this year invited many comparisons to its prior record run in 1980. For me it was a chance to walk down memory lane as much as it was a chance to witness another chapter of numismatic and economic history being written day by day.

Another name just jumped out of 1980. Yesterday’s Wall Street Journal reported that Paul Volcker is a key economic advisor to the Barack Obama presidential campaign. It proclaimed this on the front page. This is one bit of nostalgia owners of gold might just want to pay close attention to.

Volcker as chairman of the board of governors of the Federal Reserve played what was probably the greatest role in bringing down the price of gold from its $850 high in January 1980 and setting it on a downward path that knocked two-thirds off its price by the bottom of the market in 2001.

There is still an election to be held and official appointments to be made, but the return of Volcker to the economic stage even in a diminished capacity because of his advanced age might be grounds for gold prognosticators to take the “1” off their $1,500 price targets.

Skeptical? Gold owners laughed at him once. They thought gold’s upward ascent was unbreakable and the dollar’s weakness assured. Then they had to wait 28 years for a new market high to be reached.

The coin market laughed at him too for a time. We lived in our version of a fool’s paradise for approximately three months after bullion’s peak until the Central States convention in Lincoln, Neb., in the spring of 1980. That’s when numismatic prices decided they were indeed influenced by gold and other elements in the real economy and buckled. I’ve never been back there, neither has another major regional show.

Some dealers never recovered their former prosperity. They were stuck with overpriced inventory. Some collectors were so disillusioned they left their hobby and never came back.

Such is the power of a single name in my memory. To me it is sufficient grounds to very carefully monitor this new development.



10/22/2008 9:04:41 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Tuesday, October 21, 2008
State quarters and families go together
Posted by Dave

It is still too early to know the final results of our online poll question, “Did you collect state quarters for the full 10 years?” Those who have done so outnumber those who say they have not, but that seems to me to be less the point than many comments that have arrived here in my e-mail that have referred to family members involved and the fun that has been experienced by collecting the coins together.

Coin collecting most often is a solitary pursuit. The image of a middle-aged man alone in an office/study/den has been well earned by the hobby over the years. State quarters have helped push that aside a bit, kind of like the grandkids having pushed the door open together and rushed in.

That does not mean there haven’t always been parents and children involved in coin collecting, but it seems to me that family connections have had a far greater role in the context of collecting state quarters than in just about any other aspect of numismatics.

I appreciate readers sharing their memories with me. They are great memories. I hope the writers continue to make many more.

When the numismatic history of state quarters is ultimately written, it should be pointed out what a great success it was in terms to getting family members to undertake collecting them together. State quarters have broadened the collecting base and added an element of togetherness to an often atomistic undertaking.

Most importantly, the collecting of state quarters by families together have planted seeds that will sprout 20, 30 or 40 years from now when the youngsters come back into the field that was so enjoyable to them when they were young.



10/21/2008 9:14:32 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [1]
 Monday, October 20, 2008
Gold loses to the next bowl of soup
Posted by Dave

We already seem to be succumbing to the seasonal bugs here in Iola. I was flat on my back most of Wednesday. I worked most of Thursday and on Friday further rest seemed to be the wisest course, so I spent less than two hours in the office and then went home

I know I am not the only one to have been hit early. There are the sounds of coughs and sniffles around the office.

I assume what I have is the flu though it involved my digestion very little. No symptom seemed odd, out of sequence or unusual. It just seemed to be the same illness I have had before with all of its stages a bit stronger and harder to endure.

Illness has a useful purpose. It puts things in perspective. It emphasizes the little things in life that you take for granted and then realize just how important they are in making the rest of it possible.

Sure, I followed gold as it declined, but I didn’t care quite as much as I might have. The next bowl of soup or nap seemed to take priority.

One thing though, the recent price gyrations seem to call for traffic speed limit signs between $800 a troy ounce and $900 for gold because the metal seems to go through those levels at reckless speeds in both directions.

I hope now that I have endured the illness that I can stay healthy for the rest of the lengthy winter to come and that I will care about gold and coins and all related subjects as much as I usually do.

I wish a speedy recovery to everyone else who will be hit with this and other seasonal illnesses. I hope my experience is unsual rather than an indicator that worse is set to come for everybody.



10/20/2008 9:06:36 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Friday, October 17, 2008
Four Lincolns too many?
Posted by Dave

Collector opinions sometimes surprise me. That they have opinions is a given. That they are willing to express them is a given. I count on nothing less.

But what surprises me is a number of negative opinions expressed about the four Lincoln cents that will be issued in 2009 to mark the 200th anniversary of the birth of the 16th President of the United States.

These opinions aren’t about the designs. It is about the quantity. They think four is too many.

Why am I surprised? Well, we have had 50 state quarter designs. Next year we get six designs for the District of Columbia and associated territories of the United States. Complaints aimed at them centered on whether they should be considered part of the state quarter program. I don’t recall anybody saying that we just can’t tolerate six more designs.

We have four Presidential dollars each year for approximately 10 years. The focus of complaints was where “In God We Trust” was located, not that a set of 40 or so Presidents was too much or that the 40 or so First Ladies in gold were over the top.

After all of this, four Lincoln cent designs are an expression of Mint greed?

Technically that isn’t true because Congress ordered the Mint to issue them, But even if the Mint had pulled the idea out of the air and said, “Four cents, let’s do them,” it seems odd that what are likely to be the cheapest offerings to collectors in years are what are having the potshots taken at them.

It seems to me the timing is great. Next year money will likely be tight for collectors, so what better way is there to help them keep their interest and activity level up than four Lincoln cents?

Besides, metals have fallen so much that the Mint probably won’t lose money on the circulation strikes.



10/17/2008 8:55:42 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [1]