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 Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Some things don't change
Posted by Dave

Will it be business as usual for the coin market in the wake of the stock market losses of yesterday?

For the Mint it certainly was. It announced it is raising its premium on one-ounce American silver Eagles Oct. 14 by 15 cents to $1.40 per coin from $1.25.

That actions seems small potatoes compared to the action on the New York Stock Exchange. The losses were large.

There is no way of knowing if numismatists as a group are less subject to making bad investments and receiving margin calls as the population as a whole.

We have no way of knowing that coin dealers as a group fund their operations with borrowed money to any greater extent than businesses of other kinds.

What we do know is they are all human and are subject to the same anxieties and fears as everybody else. They are asking themselves how the coin market is holding up.

Does the coin collector who saw his IRA or 401(k) retirement account fall seven percent or so yesterday go the next coin show or auction he was planning to go to? Will he bid as often or as aggressively online on eBay?

The odds are we collectors are as intertwined in the current financial crisis as anybody else. While collectors are probably less likely to have their mortgage interest rates reset to levels beyond their ability to pay, they may own small businesses that cannot get a credit line extended in the same amount or even at all. Here is hoping that coin dealers have bullet-proof financial arrangements. If they are forced to liquidate inventory to pay back these credit lines, prices will fall.

Numismatists will face things one day at a time just like everybody else. We always have. When I was just starting out as  a collector in 1963, there were no numismatic firms selling hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of coins in a single year. There was no firm that was publicly traded on the stock exchange. It was just me and my Whitman album doing what hundreds of thousands of others were doing.

Financial crisis I later learned meant that proof set orders for the 1958 set fell because of the recession during the order period. And that in the typical numismatic scarcity judgment made that set a better one compared to the year before or after. In short, the hobby always seems to make lemonade out of lemons. Silver dollars continued to rise after the stock market crash of 1987 right into 1989.

For good or ill, I was part of that 1963 collecting herd. I am part of that herd now. What happens today I don’t know, but the hobby will always be here for me. It will stay interesting, it will have its ups and downs and I will continue to go with it and perhaps complain a little about the Mint increasing the cost of the silver Eagle.

See? The collector in me never leaves.



9/30/2008 9:15:49 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Monday, September 29, 2008
Two new silver dollars coming
Posted by Dave

After posting my blog Friday morning, I had the day off and so went off and performed some autumn seasonal chores.

When I left, Congress was wrestling with the financial bailout package that has more zeroes on it than most of us can easily comprehend.

Returning to the office this morning, I see from a report filed by David L. Ganz that Congress worked on matters other than the bailout, too.

Two commemorative bills from the House of Representatatives were taken up and passed by the Senate. A likely presidential signature means that we have new commemoratives to think about.

Boy Scouts will be honored with a silver dollar in 2010, a little more than one year away.

In 2012, the American Infantry gets its turn in the commemorative coin limelight. A silver dollar will honor the infantry, the oldest and largest branch of the U.S. Army. It was founded in 1775 at a time it was called the Continental Army and  when led by Gen. George Washington, won American independence from Great Britain.





9/29/2008 9:01:37 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Friday, September 26, 2008
Time to watch the Mint statistics
Posted by Dave

The year is nearly three-quarters completed and collectors are starting to give the Mint Stats page in Numismatic News a closer look to find out what current offerings might end up with low mintages.

I have had several telephone calls in recent days inquiring about the proof and uncirculated “W” collector versions of the Buffalo gold coins. The 1,108 sales total for the gold half-ounce proof Buffalo published in the Sept. 30 issue seems particularly enticing as far as coins that are currently being sold go. Even when you add in the numbers for the four-coin set, it still has a fairly low combined total of 6,721.

The truly low numbers are for the “W” collector proof and uncirculated platinum American Eagles. The half-ounce coin there stands at 126. But coins have not been available from the Mint for many weeks.

Will any others be struck this year?

Good question.

We all would like to know the answer.

The Mint has had difficulty with these coins because the market price of platinum bullion is fluctuating so widely that it hasn’t been able to keep coins on the market. The legal requirements for repricing slows the process down and the result has been no sales.

It might be logical to assume that sales of these platinum Eagles have been halted because the Mint is trying to keep up with demand for the basic bullion version of the coins. However, the bullion platinum Eagles are all still available and not on any kind of suspension or allocation arrangement.

The silver proof American Eagle is currently off sale as the Mint is diverting the blank supply to the basic bullion coin. Hobbyists are wondering if any more will be struck this year or whether the 712,207 current sales total will be it.

Some online auction buyers seem to be betting that we’ll see no more from the Mint this year and the sales figure is the equivalent to the year’s final mintage figure. We’ll see.

Watching mintage figures as the year nears its end is a time-honored hobby practice. The unsettled conditions in the financial markets are perhaps starting this seasonal exercise early this year.



9/26/2008 8:48:03 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Thursday, September 25, 2008
Add gold Buffalo to shortage list
Posted by Dave

The one-ounce gold Buffalo bullion coins have now been added to the gold and silver American Eagles where demand is exceeding the Mint's ability to produce the coins. The following memo was sent to the Mint's authorized purchasers:

September 25, 2008


MEMORANDUM TO ALL AMERICAN BUFFALO AUTHORIZED PURCHASERS


SUBJECT: American Buffalo 24-Karat Gold One-Ounce Bullion Coins

Demand has exceeded supply for American Buffalo 24-Karat Gold One-Ounce
Bullion Coins, and our inventories have been depleted.  We are,
therefore, temporarily suspending sales of these coins.

We are working diligently to build up our inventory and hope to resume
sales shortly.  We will keep you updated as information becomes
available.

The United States Mint currently has inventory of the following bullion
coins:  American Eagle Gold fractional coins (1/2 oz., 1/4 oz., 1/10
oz.) and American Eagle Platinum (all denominations).  Allocations will
continue for the American Eagle 22-Karat Gold One- Ounce and American
Eagle Silver Bullion Coins.

Thank you for your patience and understanding.



9/25/2008 4:28:12 PM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [1]
Classroom vs. real world
Posted by Dave

The scramble for American Eagles and other bullion coins continues on the market. Supplies just don’t keep up with the insatiable demand from buyers who believe they are a hedge against the financial crisis afflicting the country.

Perhaps the interesting thing revealed by the news media in the last few hours is the level of skepticism expressed by average Americans about the crisis. Calls to Washington, D.C., congressional offices seem to be running against the bailout proposal of the Treasury secretary and the chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Is this an example of the “What, me worry?” attitude of Mad Magazine’s Alfred E. Neuman? Is it disbelief that a crisis exists? Or is in disbelief that the bailout will do any good?

All of the above?

When I was taught economics in college 35 years ago, the professors often mentioned how much more economically sophisticated we were today as compared to the time of the Great Depression when the Federal Reserve and the Treasury did not act to prevent the 1929 stock market crash from becoming the Depression it became with unemployment at a quarter of the work force in 1933 and a home foreclosure level that is used as a yardstick of horror in the present day.

Are we witnessing the fact that we are not any more sophisticated than we were in 1929 and further action to try to prevent the serial collapses of banks will not be taken?

Bullion coin buyers seem to be saying that with their money.

What would my professors say now?



9/25/2008 8:52:33 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [1]
 Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Take a crack at Wisconsin notes
Posted by Dave

Chet Krause sells his Wisconsin National Bank Note collection in a Lyn Knight auction Oct. 16-17 in St. Charles, Mo., during the Professional Currency Dealers Association show.

Unfortunately, I will not be there to see it. I have watched from my chair here at Krause Publications as he built the collection. It was a labor of love.

Collecting home state National Bank Notes is a popular way of collecting paper. In fact, it helped build the paper money hobby as we know it today.

National Bank Notes offer the organizing principal that Whitman folders did for coin collectors. You  have a list of banks. You have a list of what they issued and off you go.

Collectors usually get this information when they purchase a copy of National Bank Notes by Don C. Kelly and that helps give them an idea of what challenges they face.

Paper money is still smaller and more friendly than coin collecting, but that doesn't mean there aren't rivalries. While Chet was the big fish in the Wisconsin pond, there were those before him and others are coming after him. Part of the job of collecting is keeping track of who these people are and what they own, so if there is a gap in your collection, you can be ready with cash when their notes hit the market.

But there are surprises that help keep the hobby interesting. When Dave Kranz came to work here 14 years ago, he fell in love with Wisconsin Nationals from his home county. He bought notes as he could find and afford them.

One note, I am sorry to say I cannot remember, was particularly rare and a true find by Kranz. I urged him to show Chet. Chet’s comments to him confirmed it was rare. For emphasis, he added, “I thought I owned the only one.”

Nothing feels better for a paper money collector than a comment like that from a knowledgeable veteran.

Chet is now stepping aside to give other Wisconsin collectors their turn. I hope they are ready.



9/24/2008 8:59:09 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Let's debate merits of half dime idea
Posted by Dave

I had a conversation with Rep. Frank Lucas of Oklahoma yesterday for Coin Chat Radio about his proposal for a half dime coin to replace the nickel.

His is a logic-driven argument in favor of the coin. It will be half the weight of the dime and cost less than face value to produce with its standard copper-nickel clad alloy that is already used in the dime, quarter and half dollar.

It is too early in the cycle to know what the vending machine industry thinks of this or what the Mint thinks. However, he says that he has talked with House Banking Committee Chairman Barney Frank about it. Frank has promised him hearings next year at the subcommittee level. It would be expected that the vending machine industry and the Mint would have prominent seats at the witness table.

Lucas admits he doesn’t really know how even his own constituents will react to such a coin, but for coin collectors, it opens the door to all sorts of wonderful conversations.

I had lunch with Fred Borgmann, a former colleague here at Krause, and his wife yesterday at the Crystal Cafe (where else?) and one of the topics of conversation was the half dime proposal.

Fred couldn’t see it. He thought a thorough reform of U.S. coin sizes was more logical. Simply to insert a smaller half dime into the mix would make two current coins smaller than the cent. He said if the cent were abolished, he supposed it would be OK, but he wasn’t enthusiastic about that course of action.

I imagine there will be all sorts of conversations like mine among collectors as this process unfolds. Inertia is always strong and if I had to place a bet on the outcome, I would bet on a nickel-plated steel coin of the same diameter of the current nickel. I took this position during a talk to the Sarasota Coin Club at the beginning of 2007.

With hearings sometime next year, there will be plenty of time for all sorts of ideas to be thrown into the mix.



9/23/2008 9:04:40 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Monday, September 22, 2008
Time to look at our shared past
Posted by Dave

Today, the U.S. Mint formally unveils to the public the four new reverse designs for the Lincoln cent. In the coming months, many of us will have the opportunity to return to our hobby roots as they are issued.

The 200th anniversary of the birth of Lincoln will be marked in 2009 as well as the 100th anniversary of the birth of the cent that carries his image, which was designed by Victor David Brenner.

Many, if not most, collectors consider the Lincoln cent their starting point in the hobby. Certainly in my generation this was true.

I suppose technically I did not start collecting with the Lincoln cent because my very first numismatic memory centers on a red seal $2 United States Note that my father gave me when I was six or seven years old.

It grabbed my attention enough that I kept it and I still have it. But there was no way a young child of almost 50 years ago would start collecting paper money.

Lincoln cents provided the inspiration in the year I turned eight. Whitman albums provided the road map and the time I spent  filling the holes and learning about mints, mintmarks and mintages as I filled the die-cut holes brought me fully into the field.

That’s what I will be thinking about as we celebrate the Lincoln bicentennial. That’s what I imagine many other collectors will be thinking about as well.

 



9/22/2008 8:53:15 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Friday, September 19, 2008
Are you ready for a new half dime?
Posted by Dave

I have been a collector for 45 years. Many coins have appealed to me as I learned of them, but never in my wildest dreams did I ever say to myself, “Gee, I would like to have been able to spend half dimes.”

Well, I may get the chance anyway. Rep. Frank Lucas, a coin collector in Congress who represents the 3rd district of Oklahoma, has just introduced legislation that he calls the “5 cent restoration act,” which calls for a clad half dime based on the size and shape of the coin that was abolished in 1873.

The half dime was 15.5mm in diameter as compared to the 17.9mm of the dime. The weight, of course, is lighter also.

If the legislation is passed, it would take effect Dec. 31, 2009, which I guess means starting with 2010, though I suppose it could include a special collector-only 2009 issue.

I have to wait until Monday to find out what Rep. Lucas is thinking. I have an interview scheduled. The idea might be the most clever way of breaking the current impasse over the future of the nickel or the silliest thing anyone ever heard of.

I hope to find out which it is and air the congressman’s comments on next week’s Coin Chat Radio at http://www.coinchatradio.com.



9/19/2008 8:48:35 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [1]
 Thursday, September 18, 2008
Gold echos the past
Posted by Dave

Watching gold yesterday was almost as explosive as the annual 4th of July fireworks display I watched in Bonduel this year. No one, of course, got hurt in the fireworks display.

I am not so sure about the volatile gold market.

Gold went up like a skyrocket and it lit up the bullion investment sky. By the close of regular trading in New York yesterday, the metal had set a record as the largest one-day price gain in terms of dollars, up $70.10. In percentage terms a day like this has not been seen since 1999, which you may remember was the lead-up to the Y2K problem that was going to happen to our computers when their internal clocks were to be thrown off when the year 2000 arrived.

Silver had a good day, too, rising by $1.178 to close at $11.64. This was the biggest one-day gain since 1979.

It is these references to the 1979-1980 boom that make me nervous. I remember what happened when the euphoria faded.

Gold went up from $742 on Jan. 16, 1980, to $803 on Jan. 17, 1980, up $61. This was on its way to its closing high of $825 on Jan. 21. On Jan. 22, it dropped by $155 to close at $670.

Manic upward movement was followed by manic downward movement in less than a week.

I cannot claim to know the future, but volatility works both ways. Even if the long-term uptrend in gold has further to run as many experts expect, short-term corrections can be wild.

That is the time when there is a big difference between being a long-term gold owner and a newcomer chasing headlines. Be careful.



9/18/2008 9:04:27 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Listen to David Hall
Posted by Dave

David Hall is a special guest on Coin Chat Radio tomorrow. He is a man who needs no introduction among collectors. As founder of Professional Coin Grading Service, the first privately operated coin grading and authentication service, he revolutionized numismatics in the 1980s.

The PCGS idea to encapsulate graded coins took the hobby by storm and created its own verb: to slab, meaning to grade, authenticate and put a coin in a capsule.

The interview is not about his past however. He is president of Collectors Universe and the firm has upgraded the PCGS Web site to include a weekly video commentary by David about market conditions.

There is much more. It has been my experience that David Hall says interesting things. The current interview meets that description and more.

The program is available online tomorrow morning at 11 o’clock. It will repeat every hour for the following week, and it can be downloaded onto an iPod.

Visit http://www.coinchatradio.com

You might also want to take a look at http://www.pcgs.com/prices/



9/17/2008 8:53:30 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [1]
 Tuesday, September 16, 2008
Give a boost to show attendance
Posted by Dave

The Kansas Numismatic Association has come up with a good idea to spur attendance at its annual show June 12-14, 2009, at the Cessna Activity Center in Wichita.

It will offer a gasoline rebate to members of its member clubs who drive to the event with at least two other fellow club members.

The rebate amount is $50, which even with $4 gas can still cover the cost of bringing people into the show from quite a distance.

Anyone receiving the rebate will also be expected to volunteer for two hours at the show, helping out with setting up, cleaning up, greeting visitors, or whatever else needs to be done.

This is a clever way of keeping attendance up in uncertain times to make bourse dealers happy and for finding the necessary help to keep the show running smoothly.

Cliff Mishler brought this to my attention yesterday at lunch at the Crystal Cafe. The Kansas Numismatic Association Newsletter had just arrived and he had photocopied the relevant pages out of the current issue beforehand.

Other clubs might have other ideas to tackle the same problem. Let’s share them.



9/16/2008 8:56:18 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]