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 Friday, August 29, 2008
How many Eagles are enough?
Posted by Dave
With demand for the one-ounce silver and gold American Eagles running so heavy, it is probably a good idea to pause and look at the numbers sold so far in 2008 as supplied by the U.S. Mint. The silver American Eagle has passed through the 12-million mark at 12,125,000 here near the end of August. The Mint is ramping up to produce nearly two million a month more. That would put total sales over 20 million pieces, which would be nearly double any top total from prior years. Will the Mint hit that total? It all depends on its privately produced supply of blanks. Naturally, because gold is more valuable, the totals for one-ounce gold American Eagles is lower. It is currently 307,500, but here too production is being ramped up. So far in August, the total produced is 80,000 pieces. Even maintaining that pace would still bring the annual total to hardly more than 600,000 pieces. Here, too, the supply of blanks is a critical factor. That would be a reasonably high number compared to most past years, but in 1986, 1987, 1998 and 1999 the annual total was well over 1 million, with the 1999 holding the top production spot of 1.5 million. Remember Y2K demand? Production for gold fractional Eagles is much lower, but then so is demand. The Mint says it has a supply on hand, unlike the situation for the one-ounce coin. Half-ounce total is 20,000, quarter ounce is 24,000 and tenth ounce is 95,000. Buffalo one-ounce coin production stands at 109,500 pieces so far this year. Supply here has so far been adequate. With platinum, numbers are really tiny, but that has been true in past years as well. The one-ounce Eagle stands at 1,200, the half ounce at 2,200, the quarter ounce at 4,400 and the tenth ounce at 5,000. Now let’s see what happens over the next four months.
8/29/2008 8:59:59 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Thursday, August 28, 2008
Legit coins or simply fads?
Posted by Dave
What a difference a year makes. Today the First Spouse gold coins for Andrew Jackson will become available to collectors. I imagine the commencement of sales at noon Eastern time today on the Mint Web site will cause very little fuss or bother. How unlike the case when the Thomas Jefferson was offered a year ago. Jefferson happened to be the third and last First Spouse gold coins to sellout quickly. In fact, they were the last First Spouse coins to sell out at all. Once the novelty wears off, so does buyer interest apparently. Does this mean the Mint is offering the numismatic equivalent of the hoola hoop? Hot one minute and then forever on the margin, fondly recalled by those who remember the fad? Could be. Legislation for the National Parks quarter series includes provisions to make versions of the designs in five-ounce sizes three inches in diameter. Colin Bruce of the Standard Catalog of World Coins staff called these large “coins” hockey pucks many years ago. Another piece of legislation calling for civil rights quarters has exactly the same provision for a three-inch, five-ounce silver version. How much further can the U.S. Mint take novelty in numismatics? I am sure we will eventually find out, but we collectors may not like the answer. Perhaps there will even be a U.S. coin for the hoola hoop. How about that?
8/28/2008 9:00:28 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Wednesday, August 27, 2008
They can't mean that, can they?
Posted by Dave
When you ask a stupid question, you know what happens. When Numismatic News went to press with the Aug. 26 issue, it featured a story on Page 4 about protesters in Denver hoping to levitate the Denver Mint during the last week of August. I thought it was funny. I thought it a good idea to ask in our weekly poll question whether the protesters would levitate the mint. Well, 36 percent said yes. That might worry me if I thought the repondents were serious. I am assuming they thought the topic was just as silly as I did and were giving me as much of a silly answer as I was asking a silly question. The written responses that followed up in the Sept. 2 issue were sparse. Usually we get so many answers we cannot run them all in the space we have. That was not the case with this poll question. Just in case you missed the news, the protesters did not succeed in levitating the mint. If my theory on this poll question is incorrect, then we are all in trouble.
8/27/2008 9:01:09 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Tuesday, August 26, 2008
Why pay high price?
Posted by Dave
Quick. If you are about to buy some silver as an investment, would you like to pay a premium of 19 percent over metallic value, 7.8 percent over or 2.3 percent over? Trick question? Possibly. On the whole, investors would normally seek to buy the metal in the form that gives them the biggest bang for their buck, meaning the lowest possible markup from bullion value. However, if you judge the activity in the marketplace you will scratch your head. Buyers are chasing the 2008 silver American Eagle coins and other current bullion coins like the Austrian Philharmonic and the Canadian Maple Leaf instead. Why? I checked the Kitco Web site this morning, which appears at kitco.comI see that silver American Eagles, which are temporarily out of stock are priced at $15.73 each, with silver at $13.23 for a nearly 19 percent premium. Maple Leaf and Philharmonic coins, which are in stock, are priced just a little cheaper at $15.48. If you want to buy 100-ounce silver bars, (which were all the rage in the late 1970s and early 1980s), the premium over silver value is 7.8 percent at $1,426. They are in stock. A 1,000-ounce bar is just 2.3 percent above silver value at $13,530. It is also in stock. Why choose to pay such a high premium for coins when other forms are more reasonably priced? Is their some hoped for numismatic premium? Markets can be irrational. This may be one of those times. Bullion coin premiums have been much lower than those asked for currently. They will be again. Why pay them?
8/26/2008 9:04:58 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Monday, August 25, 2008
Let's pinch those pennies
Posted by Dave
I happened to have a conversation with a gas station owner over the weekend. I had pulled off the highway to fill up. Immediately ahead of me was a fellow who apparently was complaining that the cost of a pack of cigarettes at the station was 10 cents too high. The owner of the station was still shaking his head when I stepped up to pay for my gas. We had a conversation about what just happened. The owner said that in the past two years people have become more conscious of prices than he had ever seen in his 11 years in business. The cigarette episode was just the latest example. He said he was conducting a pricing experiment. He had set his price six cents a gallon below the station up the street. He said his volume was up by 50 percent as a result. He interpreted this as yet another example of price consciousness. The owner said even his friends stopped coming by if his price was just two cents higher than the other station. I mostly listened, but I agreed that money was tight and people were watching their expenditures. As I drove away, I thought about the conversation, but what I mostly thought about was that price consciousness is nothing new to coin collectors. They have been following prices closely for their whole hobby careers. If something seems out of line, they say so online and in letters. Does this habit carry over into their daily budgets? I assume so. If you watch your numismatic expenditures closely, why would you do anything else in other aspects of life? Collecting is good financial training in addition to its other aspects. While nobody is going to take up collecting because it will help with managing the family budget, I imagine that the savings from good budgeting might just go into hobby expenditures. Does that mean that because money spent on coins is offset elsewhere that they are in effect free? Hmm.
8/25/2008 8:52:22 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Friday, August 22, 2008
Where do they come from?
Posted by dave
I had another one of those communications this past week. I received a fax from a guy who in all seriousness inquired where we at Numismatic News were coming up with what passed as letters to the editor. He cited what he thought was a most ludicrous example of a letter he thought shouldn’t be published. Ah, he asked me such an easy question. Whatever you might think about any given letter to the editor, or its writer, there are two facts that are paramount for me. The first is that the letter does indeed come from a reader. The second is my firm belief that a reader has every right to express himself. Of course, personal expression is limited by libel laws, but what I have found in over 30 years as a newspaper editor is that the bounds of law seldom must be invoked. Readers are a pretty level headed bunch who offer opinions on all sorts of topics. Some topics are lofty. Some are silly. Nearly all readers know the difference and learn from them or laugh with them as the occasion warrants. Over time, the picture that emerges is what a remarkably lively hobby we have and what interesting topics we choose to reflect upon from time to time. Letters to the editor reflect the lives of the readers. As long as they do, they will keep being read and I will continue to get the occasional fax demanding to know where I find them.
8/22/2008 8:57:58 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Thursday, August 21, 2008
If you have to think, you won’t buy
Posted by dave
One week from today the Mint will put the next First Spouse gold coins on the market. Because Andrew Jackson, our seventh President, was a widower at the time, his First Spouse gold coin will feature a Capped Bust design that was used on coinage during his term of office, 1829-1837. Will this classic design help sales? The Mint needs a boost from somewhere. Each new issue is being purchased by fewer and fewer collectors. The Louisa Adams total is just about 7,000 coins. This number includes both the proofs and the uncirculateds. When the first First Spouse coin was offered for Martha Washington, the 40,000 maximum was sold out the same day. The same held true for Abigail Adams and Thomas Jefferson. Since Dolley Madison went on the market late last year, the pace of sales and the number of coins sold have declined. Dolley is only about three-quarters sold. Elizabeth Monroe is hardly more than Louisa Adams at just over one-quarter sold. Will we ever have another sellout? That is a good question, but we will have to wait for approximately 33 more issues over the next eight or so years to find out.
8/21/2008 9:07:04 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Wednesday, August 20, 2008
Americans like fighting about money
Posted by dave
No, the fight isn’t always about how to spend money, but about what the nature of money itself is. That historical idea came to mind when I was at the American Numismatic Association convention. I talked to all sorts of people about all sorts of topics. One fellow I have known for years wanted to talk about the gold standard. He almost seemed to want to fight about it. He declared paper money was unconstitutional. He cited what he said was the constitutional language that says only gold and silver are legal tender. I couldn’t resist pointing out to him that the Supreme Court said that paper money was legal in 1870. That court case was a whopper. It was also historically interesting for people who like to know the rest of the story. The founder of the modern American system of paper money was Salmon P. Chase. He was the Treasury secretary for Abraham Lincoln and the North. He was desperate for money. Like the South, he was forced to issue unbacked paper money called Demand Notes to finance the war. Chase was nothing if not creative. Not only did he issue Demand Notes, but he figured out a new way of war financing that ran circles around anything ever done by the United States before. He created the National Banking System. Chartered national banks could issue their own paper money, but it had to be backed by federal government bonds. What were these bonds? Why they were debt to finance the war. The new system worked. The North got the money. The North won the war. But in the meantime, Chase was appointed Chief Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court. During the Grant administration, a imminent court ruling could declare what Chase had done constitutional or unconstitutional. Perhaps oddly, Chase was on the side of calling it unconstitutional. Grant leaned the other way. A vacancy on the court was filled with a “sound” paper money man and the decision went 5-4 in favor of paper. We’ve had it ever since and we’ve been fighting about it ever since as the booth visitor demonstrates.
8/20/2008 9:58:08 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Why not just order?
Posted by dave
While certain individuals will be attempting to shake coins out of the Denver Mint on Monday, collectors will have the opportunity to get the new Alaska quarter the regular way. They can order rolls and bags from the U.S. Mint. Granted, it probably isn’t as much fun as levitating a building and shaking it, but getting Alaskan state quarters is still pretty interesting for us collectors. I like the design. I like the design a lot. The bear grabbing the salmon, or perhaps trout, says it all. Why can’t Wisconsin’s quarter have something that strong on it? After all, we have bears here. They can be annoying, but they are real. We also have trout. But we also have cows, cheese and corn here as well, so that is what we got on our coin when it was our turn in 2004. I have written a number of times that the Wisconsin design was chosen by a vote of the people of the state, so I can’t complain about the design on those grounds. But then I go and see a really good state quarter design and I am just envious. Nevada was a really good one, too. Fortunately, I can collect any of the other 49 designs that I want. But if I want the 49th state, that order period starts Aug. 25. Visit the Mint Web site at www.usmint.gov for details. If I still had the 49-star flag that I had when I was a kid, I would wave it. It’s Alaska’s turn.
8/19/2008 9:42:05 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Monday, August 18, 2008
Halloween in Denver?
Posted by dave
The Aug. 26 issue of Numismatic News ran a story by the Associated Press about protesters in Denver who during the final week in August are going to try to levitate the Mint there. Yes, I did a double take at the word “levitate” just to make sure I had read what I read. I did. I laughed. It got funnier. I was only 13 in 1968 so I guess I am seeing now what I missed out on back in the day. A group called Recreate 68 said it plans to surround the Mint on Aug. 25 in an attempt to levitate the one-square-block building and “shake the money out of it for the people.’’ Gosh, I had better get my wheelbarrow and get over there pronto. The story also said that the event is meant to commemorate an anti-Vietnam war protest in October 1967, when demonstrators sought to levitate the Pentagon. You remember that, don’t you? The big flying Pentagon? No? I don’t either, but then I was pretty preoccupied with coins that year. Maybe I missed it.
8/18/2008 9:02:06 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Friday, August 15, 2008
Keep the comments coming
Posted by dave
Fantastic. I am watching the comments multiply on my blog over the last couple of days. Keep them coming. I appreciate it. The benefits of a blog include some real time responses to real questions and I enjoy getting them. My blog is cross posted between the www.numismaticnews.net site and the Numismaster Web site. It is on the latter site that the Pat Heller weekly commentary on gold appears. Good, bad or indifferent, the traffic to his comments is high and the feedback on my blog helps to demonstrate why. All responses are being duly noted and discussed here in Iola.
8/15/2008 8:51:04 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Thursday, August 14, 2008
Don't be bashful about gold
Posted by Dave
Wasn’t it the old Dragnet TV series that said the names had been changed to protect the innocent? Well, gold bugs like a little screen between themselves and the rest of the world, too. Yesterday’s topic elicited an e-mail that I will show in part here. “After you and I spoke on this after Pat’s column about two months ago, both myself and a top gold, gold futures and gold equities analysis firm that I deal with agree that his opinions are ‘solid gold.’ Are his opinions likely to ruffle some feathers? Sure. But then there are still a lot of people in denial about the strength of U.S. banks, the U.S. stock market and the dollar. This is one more reason I plan to retire in Asia. “Give us more of Pat! Please feel free to share my thoughts with him.” Hey, I will share these thoughts with more than just Pat. They can kick off the discussion. I have to admit I was a little disappointed to see that no comments were posted below my comments yesterday on numismaticnews.net. Perhaps people are thinking about it. Perhaps it is simply a slow summertime period and they will think about that tomorrow, not unlike Scarlett O’Hara in Gone with the Wind. People who believe in gold don’t want to be reduced to wearing the drapes because they didn’t take precautions against inflation.
8/14/2008 8:52:41 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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