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 Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Local gold buyers worth watching
Posted by Dave
Gold is meandering lower today, which it often does the day before a Coin Chat Radio guest is forecasting record highs coming. The nature of markets is to fluctuate. That is certainly what it is doing around the present $938 a troy ounce. However, a pause in the uptrend does not mean it is over. But one year ago, who would have thought $938-an-ounce gold would represent a pause? To forecast it would have sounded almost wildly bullish, yet here we are. One thing we tend to forget about high prices is their economic function. Gold prices might signal out-of-control inflation or out-of-control issuance of paper money by the Federal Reserve and the central banks of the rest of the world. But another function of a high price is to signal to potential suppliers that more gold is needed. This signal doesn’t go to just central bankers or mine executives. It goes to the corner jewelry store too. Judging by television ads that I see and news stories that I read, local shops are attracting a lot of sellers of what is termed “scrap gold and broken jewelry.” Whatever you call it, it is new supply. How much is coming into the market? It is probably too soon to tell. However, Coin Market columnist Harry Miller says that silver refineries are backed up. True, that is not gold, but the pair tend to run in tandem. At the 1980 high, the refineries were so backed up that the price of 90 percent silver coins were vastly lower than the market price would indicate. With silver at $50 a troy ounce, any pre-1965 dime, quarter or half dollar was worth 36 times face. The highest market buy price that I saw was 24 times. This was in a market that at one time had paid a premium for 90 percent silver. There was a hefty supply in the pipeline and prices came down in 1980. Is that happening now? It is probably too early to say, but the phenomenon bears watching. Don’t forget to visit http://www.coinchatradio.com. There is a new program every Thursday at 11 a.m. Central Time.
7/23/2008 9:02:06 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Tuesday, July 22, 2008
When the price is right
Posted by Dave
For gold bullion coin buyers, the object should be to purchase the most gold for the least cost. Often, buyers of the coins do not look at bullion coins as some sort of budgetary item that they used to get more cheaply years ago. They wax poetic over designs, or are indignant over the source of the precious metal. These elements not directly related to the intrinsic worth of the metal play a huge role in public perception. However, price is never entirely ignored. When the 2008 gold Buffalo one-ounce coins and the new fractionals go on sale today, collectors and investors will begin making calculations based on prices. Is $1,199.95 too much for a one-ounce proof coin when gold is $968? That’s a mark-up of almost 30 percent. But it is a proof coin. Would the answer be different if it weren’t the Mint offering the coins for sale? I had an e-mail inquiry from an individual who wanted to know if he had received a fair offer for two 14-karat gold rings. I calculated the gold value yesterday at roughly $162. The dealer apparently offered the e-mail writer $126. I said that seemed in line with the present market. The gold value was approximately 30 percent more than the offered price. A follow-up e-mail from the writer suggested that the difference was too great. The dealer should be satisfied with five percent. With almost identical profit margins, it is fair to say there will be a lot of happy buyers of the new Buffalo gold coins from the Mint and unhappy sellers of what is called scrap gold wondering why dealers don’t work on a narrower margin?
7/22/2008 9:10:30 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Monday, July 21, 2008
Friend or foe?
Posted by Dave
Franklin Roosevelt is a president coin collectors love to hate. Not that they are all Republicans, but the author of the New Deal took away the right to own gold coins. That has been the hobby story since I began reading numismatic material in the 1960s and we are sticking to it. The tale had its greatest force in the years immediately prior to the legalization of gold ownership once again at the end of 1974. People tend to forget the facts behind the headlines. Roosevelt’s first Treasury Secretary was a coin collector. William Woodin was also an author of a book about patterns. It was a standard reference before Judd. Roosevelt’s recall order also specifically exempted coin collectors. They couldn’t hold a garageful of $20 gold pieces, but they could retain two of each date and mintmark for their collections. They rest had to be traded in for other forms of cash. Now that is pretty generous in light of the financial emergency facing the country. Woodin’s unfortunate invisibility to history was due to the unhappy development of cancer later in 1933 so he left office and died. Had he lived, Roosevelt mythology might have turned out to be that he was the best friend coin collectors ever had. But later generations forget the emergency the country was facing. That is natural. The gold ban was in force in one form or another for 41 years. People that far removed in time from the crisis have a hard time understanding the meaning of the words, “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” Actually, those words sound completely bonkers in normal times, but at times when lines are forming outside of banks, like the IndyMac offices in California, they begin to make sense – at least to the worried depositors. In 1933 banks were failing almost daily. The Bank Holiday, declared by Roosevelt shut them all down for five days until they could be checked out. The healthy ones were allowed to reopen. The unhealthy ones remained closed. Troubles today look small by comparison. But give Roosevelt another kick anyway. It is now a pleasant hobby tradition.
7/21/2008 9:15:41 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Friday, July 18, 2008
Face to face with fakes
Posted by Dave
Fake coins struck in China have bedeviled the hobby for years. Colleague Colin Bruce of the Standard Catalog of World Coins staff used to acquire many of the fakes as they arrived on the scene to study them and figure out their defects. The current wave is probably too much even for him to keep up with, but he sent me an e-mail link of a factory in China that is described as making fake U.S. and world coins. Here is the link. Take a look at it and see what you think. http://coins.about.com/od/worldcoins/ig/Chinese-Counterfeiting-Ring/Chinese-Fake-Coin-Minting.htmThe situation with fakes even provoked the Professional Coin Grading
Service earlier this year to warn of fake coins and holders coming out
of China and makl recommendations as to what should be done to counter
this. We all know the problems that are caused by fakes, but figuring out what can be done to fight them is something the hobby will wrestle with for years. Even if production were stopped right this minute, the large numbers of fakes would be passed around by people for many years to come. Some day they will probably be collected as fakes once more complete knowledge about them becomes widespread.
7/18/2008 8:58:37 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Thursday, July 17, 2008
What would you say about coin designs?
Posted by Dave
If you had the chance to give your input to the Citizens Coinage Advisory Committee, one of the two national panels that offer design advice to the secretary of the Treasury, what would it be? A planned meeting of the CCAC 9 a.m. Aug. 1 at the American Numismatic Association’s World’s Fair of Money in Baltimore at the convention center might just be your chance to see how this particular government body works. Specific design candidates on the agenda are proposals for the reverse of the 2009 proof platinum American Eagle and for a privy mark. However, there is also going to be a public forum immediately after the meeting. That would be your chance to offer input. “We hope that any interested numismatists will come to our meeting and forum to see the coin design process in action, and especially to let us know their opinions about American coin design,” said Mitch Sanders, the CCAC chairman. Once you take the floor and everybody is listening, what would you tell them? I will be in attendance to find out, but if you want to make a few comments here as to what you would say if you had the chance, please do so. I know that not everybody will have the opportunity to be in Baltimore. What I have heard at public meetings such as this have been very interesting. The first time I heard collectors suggest edge lettering on American coins was at a listening session of a former Mint director. This became a reality on the Presidential dollars and led to the "Godless Dollar" controversy that prompted Congress to mandate putting the motto on the obverse. Collector ideas might be good or bad, but we can't say that our public officials are not listening.
7/17/2008 8:56:33 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Wednesday, July 16, 2008
One paper money advantage over coins
Posted by Dave
“Leaving a paper trail” is device for accountants or investigators to find out where the money went. In the case of actual collectors of paper money, the paper trail is vital in knowing the history of a particular bank note you might be considering buying. If you are buying a high-grade note, it might interest you to discover that it had sold before as a lower grade note. Figuring this out is possible because notes have serial numbers that can be recorded and traced. Assembling this information, or blazing the paper trail, is Martin Gengerke, a professional in the field who originally introduced the Gengerke Census and now is taking it one step further called the Gengerke Census Lite. It is geared to coin dealers and paper money newcomers to help them identify a note and assess its rarity. It offers a complete census of large-size type notes issued before the conversion to small-size notes in 1929. It also offers a complete census of National Bank Notes, which were issued by individual banks 1863-1935 with a federal guarantee behind them. The Gengerke Census Lite is a cheaper alternative at $30 than the version with all the bells and whistles. It comes on a disk and is updated once each year. The full version costs $175 and is updated continuously and can be downloaded over the Internet. If you have a budding interest in paper money, you might consider e-mailing gengerke@aol.com for more information.
7/16/2008 9:05:14 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Ignorance ain't bliss
Posted by Dave
First I wanted laugh. Then it was “uh-oh.” The lesson just might apply to numismatics, too. IndyMac Bank of Pasadena, Calif., failed Friday and yet a run on it by depositors seems to have started afterwards if the news footage from yesterday is any guide. So, after the bank failed, after the government took it over, after the obligations of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. to cover any deposit of $100,000 or less were triggered, that’s when people decided to start a run? How silly is that? Any money to be lost was already lost, and 98 percent of the depositors are covered by the $100,000 guarantee. Why was there a run at all? The FDIC guarantee should be well known, but it obviously isn’t. How can that be the case in the Internet age with so much information at our fingertips? Apparently fingertips aren’t close enough. It needs to be in your head. What’s the numismatic connection? Think about it. Collectors have always stressed knowledge and they are quite right to do so. However, the threat isn’t from our lack of knowledge, but like the bank run, the danger comes from the lack of knowledge of the uninformed. If coin dealers are going to be put out of business by overzealous regulators, it is the ignorance of those regulators we should be worried about. A city council that cannot tell the difference between a fly-by-night motel coin buyer and a community based shop owner is dangerous. The state department’s seemingly willful blindness in equating collectors of ancient coins with looters is dangerous. People who buy supposedly bargain coins online from sellers in China are dangerous because all they know is that they bought coins and they lost money. It isn’t our ignorance that’s the problem. It’s there’s.
7/15/2008 8:59:02 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Monday, July 14, 2008
Baltimore next up for me
Posted by Dave
Judging from the attitudes of people attending the Iola Old Car Show, life goes on despite high gasoline prices and other distractions. People who visited seemed relaxed and had a good time. Those of us cooking hamburgers on Sunday morning marveled at the quantity of food that was being packed away. We haven’t done so many burgers in years. Yet the crowds were no bigger. Those of us on the crew were unanimous in thinking that the crowds, if anything, were smaller than they were in the last couple of years. So what is going on? How can fewer people consume more food? The first thing to remember is my personal impressions of a show that is widely spread out may have little to do with overall results. But the other thing to remember is that there probably were a few people who were scared away by $4 gas. Those who attended the show swallowed the price hike and made it to Iola anyway. That means by the time I saw them, they had already made a greater commitment to the show than they have for prior years. When they got hungry, they ate. So those who made it here were determined to have a enjoyable show. I hope we gave it to them. I talked to many people who were veteran show-goers. I talked to one fellow who said he attended every other year. At the end of our conversation, I said I would see him again in 2010. In two weeks, the World’s Fair of Money will get under way in Baltimore. Like the car show, the American Numismatic Association convention is an annual tradition for many collectors. I assume a few potential convention-goers won’t make it, but those who do come will behave like the car show attendees. They are the veterans and they will continue to enjoy the hobby that has given them so much. Baltimore is a great location for a coin convention and those of us who get there will have a good time. See you there.
7/14/2008 9:06:32 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Friday, July 11, 2008
Buffalo gold arrives July 22
Posted by Dave
How many U.S. gold coins can coin collectors stand? The U.S. Mint may be about to find out. Starting July 22, proof and uncirculated collector 2008 Buffalo gold coins will go on sale. This year in addition to the one-ounce size that made its first appearance in 2006, the Mint will also offer fractional sizes of half ounce, quarter ounce and tenth ounce. For the proofs, the one-ounce coin, which has a $50 face value, is priced at $1,199.95 each. The half ounce with a $25 denomination is $619.95. The quarter ounce with a $10 denomination is $329.95. The tenth ounce with a $5 face value is $159.95. A four-coin proof set is priced at $2,219.95. The mintmarked uncirculated collector versions with “W” for West Point start at $1,059.95 for the ounce, $539.95 for the half ounce, $289.95 for the quarter ounce and $129.95 for the tenth ounce. Price of the four-coin “W” uncirculated Buffalo set is $1,959.95. The Buffalo gold coins are .9999 fine gold and they are encapsulated and then placed in a hardwood holder. Sales will begin at noon Eastern Time, July 22. Visit the Mint’s Web site at www.usmint.gov. It might take a few more government stimulus checks to raise the $4,279,90 cost of the two four-coin sets.
7/11/2008 12:22:01 PM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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Parks quarter idea moves ahead
Posted by Dave
Wow, the National Parks quarter bill passed the U.S. House of Representatives July 9 on a vote of 419-0. Now action shifts to the U.S. Senate. Will it concur or will it allow the legislation to languish? You never really know until it is a done deal. The 2009 District of Columbia and territories quarter legislation died in the Senate multiple times. The current legislative period runs until Aug. 8, when the usual summer recess occurs. That recess culminates in the national conventions for the Democratic and Republican Parties. The Democrats meet in Denver in late August and the Republicans meet is St. Paul, Minn., in early September. Whether National Park quarter legislation will be considered important enough to spring to the head of the line or will it die as in the past? What do you think will happen?
7/11/2008 8:20:26 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Thursday, July 10, 2008
Crowds arrive at Iola Old Car Show
Posted by Dave
Today I write about the Iola Old Car Show. It is not a numismatic topic, but it does have a major influence on all of the employees of Krause Publications, parent firm of Numismatic News. Our regular parking lot is turned over to collectible cars, so the employees must park elsewhere and walk a bit to get to the building. Fortunately, the weather is beautiful and we hope attendance will be high despite $4-a-gallon gasoline. The financial futures of more than 100 service clubs in the area are largely determined for the next year by the proceeds raised from working at the show. The show is incorporated as a nonprofit and the money that is raised is shared among the organizations. In prior years we have attracted around 140,000 people over the course of four days. It is certainly something worth seeing. For me, it gives me a chance to see another kind of show and how it works. I also cook hamburgers for the Lions Club. It is certainly unlike coin shows, but there are certainly lessons to be learned. One of them is the importance of food. The big coin shows often fall down on food availability. I imagine these shows are trapped by convention centers. The food at these shows is high priced and a treatment, not a treat, to eat. It reminds me of what airport food used to be like before the national food franchises arrived at airports. Perhaps something can be done, perhaps not, but at least the car show has inspired a thought related to numismatics.
7/10/2008 9:06:20 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Wednesday, July 09, 2008
Hoarded quarters put to use
Posted by Dave
More and more of the older state quarters seem to be finding their way into circulation if what I am getting is any guide. I had a beautiful Delaware quarter come my way the other day. The recession is making people dig into their accumulations to pay daily bills. This is something that could go on for years. It is also something that might break the quarter habit for many people. If you have been faithfully saving the coins in any quantity and you arrive at nearly the end of the 10-year program to find out that what you have squirreled away is not really worth anything more than face value, the whole hoard might eventually get dumped as money is needed. Or, it could be something of collector’s remorse. If you have been faithfully accumulating rolls of the coins and circumstance forces you to stop, you might just feel frustration and guilt and give the whole effort up. Either way, if the phenomenon occurs, we could experience lower mintages in future years as these coins clog the banking system, requiring fewer orders for new coins from the Mint. This could be a little bit like what happened to coin mintages in the 1880s. Numbers were down because all of the silver coins that disappeared from circulation during the inflationary crisis spawned by the Civil War found their way back into circulation after the Resumption Act that went into effect Jan. 1, 1879, made the dollar basically as good as gold after a lapse of almost 18 years. We’ll see.
7/9/2008 9:02:27 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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