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 Tuesday, June 03, 2008
Quiet isn't peaceful
Posted by Dave
I had phone call yesterday. The topic isn’t memorable. My thoughts are somewhat more so. It was another one of those calls where the caller identified himself and then began to speak. I listened. After five or six seconds he asked if I was still on the line. This has been happening to me more and more. Is the quality of our phones so bad now and callers so frequently cut off that they routinely interrupt to inquire if I am still there? I get the joke of the cellphone commercials, “Can you here me now?” But I thought we had finally cleared the hurdle of going in and out of dead zones in recent years. Another part of me wondered if we have become so unused to silence that when it occurs, it is startling and unexpected. People run around with their iPods and give their whole life a sound track like a TV show. There is no background music on my phone when I am on the line. If I am asked to listen, I do and it is absolutely quiet. So are all these inquiries as to whether I am still there the result of erratic technology or the startling and apparently unexpected absence of sound as I listen?
6/3/2008 8:49:36 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Monday, June 02, 2008
How did we get there?
Posted by Dave
Thursday afternoon was a big day for the numismatic staff at Krause Publications. At 3 p.m. the camera rolled for the pilot of Coin Chat TV. A 15-minute segment was done. Editorial director Debbie Bradley introduced me and Colin Bruce, who for many years was in charge of the catalog department that puts out the many volumes of the Standard Catalog series for coins and paper money. I had to put a suit on. For Colin, the overalls look disappeared an he put on his Snoopy tie. My tie had a Chinese coin theme as I had obtained it at the World Money Fair in Berlin. It seemed a good opportunity to wear the tie for the first time. Did it bring me luck? I think so. It was fun to do. I learned that saying copper-coated zinc cents was harder to do than I ever would have thought beforehand. Facts that you have known for years can sound twisted with the slip of the tongue. We picked the future of the cent and the $1 bill as the discussion topics precisely because we figured it would ease us into more difficult topics. We don’t yet have a studio, so we were using a round conference room that was popularly dubbed “the silo” when it was built in 1982. There was a nice skyline scene behind us. I asked, “Is this New York? I don’t recognize any of the buildings.” “No,” I was told, “It’s Vancouver.” Hey, we love ya, Canada. We prove once again that the country has a major influence in our neck of the woods. Historically, many of our place names came from the French trappers and much of our trade heads north through the Great Lakes as it always has. I saw the video Friday. When will you get to see it? I don’t know yet, but Coin Chat TV is close. Watch wwwcoinchatradio.com for more information.
6/2/2008 8:59:33 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Friday, May 30, 2008
Look at the production gap
Posted by Dave
Every once in a while I like to go back to basics and check mintages figures for the regular circulating denominations. Most of the time these numbers don’t show much of note. Mintages are enormous and the coins have little chance of attaining much in the way of long-term collector value, but the collector impulse in me keeps me interested. I’ve commented previously on the falling production numbers in this recession year as regarding the cent, but there is another curious phenomenon going on. What’s going on in Philadelphia? For the cent through the dime denominations, there is a widening gap between Denver output and Philadelphia output. For the cent, Denver is producing nearly 50 percent more through April with figures of 923,600,000 as compared to Philadelphia’s 612,400,000. For the nickel, the gap is wider. Denver has produced almost 2.5 times more coins than Philly. The numbers are 143,040,000 as compared to 58,800,000. And what’s up with 58,000,000? That number looks more like a figure from the early 1960s. The gap in dime production is similarly large. Denver has come in during the first four months at 243,500,000 million and Philadelphia at 82,000,000. Quarter production is more routine with each mint contributing roughly half of the total at 433,400,000 and 437,600,000, respectively. Is the eastern economy that much weaker than points West? Is Denver that much more productive? Do collectors even give a darn?
5/30/2008 9:01:51 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Thursday, May 29, 2008
Silver Eagles get harder look
Posted by Dave
A new shipment of 2008 silver American Eagles arrived in Iola this week. We use them as subscription premiums. They are very popular. I have one on my desk this morning as a reminder to write this blog. The discovery of the 2008-W uncirculated silver American Eagle with the reverse of 2007 reported in the May 6 issue of Numismatic News has added to the general interest in what has been a very popular coin since it was created in 1986. There is still some confusion out there as to just what a 2008-W American Eagle is as compared to a regular 2008 silver American Eagle that is usually just called a one-ounce bullion coin. Let’s start with the bullion coin first. It was created in 1986. The Mint made a decision to sell them only to a small group of authorized dealers, who in turn sell them to a wider numismatic marketplace. The coin has no mintmark on its reverse. Some collectors complained from the first that they didn’t want to buy the coin from a dealer but would prefer to buy directly from the U.S. Mint. In 2006, the Mint changed a policy of almost 20 years standing and decided to offer uncirculated silver American Eagles directly to collectors. Perhaps out of a concern not to undercut sales to the authorized dealers, the Mint put a “W” mintmark on the coins, struck them on burnished blanks and charged more for them. The coins are still technically uncirculated and the Mint calls them that. Shorthand in the hobby often refers to them as burnished. I always add the “W” to the date to help in making the distinction. The Mint sells the 2008-W uncirculated coins struck on the burnished blanks for $25.95. A regular 2008 bullion American Eagle without the mintmark sells for $20 or less at the moment from the nation’s coin dealers. Those who like to order the new coins directly from the Mint were rewarded when some of the 2008-W uncirculated pieces that were delivered to them turned out to have last year’s reverse on them. You can buy one from advertisers in Numismatic News for $395. That’s quite a leap from the issue price. Buyers who got them from the Mint for $25.95 are feeling pretty good. So far, no 2008 bullion American Eagles without the mintmark have turned up with last year’s reverse. They all sport the new letter “U” in UNITED STATES OF AMERICA on the reverse that has the downstroke on it that makes it look like a lower case “u.” The reverses in 2007 and before do not have this downstroke on the letter. These bullion coins are popular simply for another reason. They contain one troy ounce of silver and silver is hot.
5/29/2008 9:02:56 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Wednesday, May 28, 2008
Gold at $700. Are you nuts?
Posted by Dave
Would it be a good thing for the coin hobby if gold dropped to $700 a troy ounce and stayed there for a few years? A good case can be made that the rapid upward movement in the price of the precious metal has made gold coins unaffordable to a larger number of collectors. It is the disposable income of collectors that ultimately drives prices in the numismatic market. Sure, trophy coins like 1913 Liberty Head nickels can stay in the stratosphere. Their prices don’t fall. A weakness in the market is usually manifested by the removal of these coins from the market as owners await better times. However, coins with larger populations in both raw and slabbed states see more fluidity in pricing, but even with these, there is enough rigidity to create unsustainable situations. Many readers have pointed out the disappearance of scarcity premiums on gold coins that used to have higher mark-ups when compared to the underlying value of the bullion than they do now. They are right. They have shrunk or disappeared. Stability in gold’s price allows some differentiation to occur that simply does not exist when upward thrusts reduce many coins to bullion value. For example, gold $20s have long had a narrower price differentiation based on mintages than Lincoln cents. It is logical. There are more collectors of Lincolns than double eagles. What collectors there are tend to focus on the very top end. Also, the base price of any double eagle is far higher than a base price for any Lincoln, so there is wider room to make price differentiations. In the VF-20 column in the June Coin Market, the 1892 double eagle with a mintage of 4,523 is priced at $1,350, less than $400 more than the $963 price of an 1898-S, which has a mintage of 2,575,175. In calmer markets, the 1892 was around 2-2.5 times the price of the 1898-S. Sure, in calmer markets we lose the excitement of rapidly moving bullion, but we collectors get to be more true to ourselves by making buying and selling judgments based on scarcity.
5/28/2008 9:04:46 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Tuesday, May 27, 2008
It's all about gold
Posted by Dave
How would you like to be in charge of pricing the First Spouse half-ounce gold coins? Here we are just two days prior to the opening of sales for the Louisa Adams coin and prices have not yet been revealed. Perhaps they will show up later today. I will keep looking. If the price is set too high, sales will stall even more so than they have for the Elizabeth Monroe coins, which hold the record in this young series for the slowest sales pace. Only 3,910 uncirculated pieces have been sold and 6,666 proofs. Add them up and they total 10,576, which is hardly more than a quarter of the number that could be sold. Prices of the Monroe coins are $619.95 for the proof and $599.95 for the uncirculated. That works out to a premium of about 35 percent for the proof and 31 percent for the uncirculated coin. It is likely that the Louisa Adams prices will be in the same neighborhood if not identical to these unless bullion takes a dramatic leap higher or a fantastic spill lower in the next few hours. The Dolley Madison coins can still be purchased for $529.95 for the proofs and $509.95 for the uncirculated. Even these relatively low mark-ups from the current price of bullion of 15 percent and 11 percent, respectively, have not sent sales soaring. I almost wrote “set sales on fire” but that just didn’t seem quite right for the woman who was burned out of the White House in 1814. It is a shame that the reputations of the First Ladies have been completely overshadowed by the price of gold. It is going to be a long and tedious 10 years.
5/27/2008 8:57:09 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Friday, May 23, 2008
Have a good day
Posted by dave
I didn’t have to pay the new $15 first bag fee that American Airlines will be imposing soon. I feel lucky. However, this is just a temporary bit of good fortune. I sympathize with the pain of high fuel prices. We all feel it every time we fuel up at a gas station. However, the idea of trying to offset it with a bag charge seems to be like a restaurant charging extra for a knife and fork. It is something you don’t expect an additional charge for. I do a lot of traveling, though not enough on American to avoid the domestic bag charge, and I imagine in future the overhead bins will be overfilled by people trying to avoid it. Why don’t they just call it the “Saudi Arabia wishes you a good day charge?” That seems more logical.
5/23/2008 9:05:09 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Thursday, May 22, 2008
In the air again
Posted by dave
By the time you read this I will either be in the air on the way to San Antonio, Texas, or already there. The Harper clan is gathering for the wedding of a cousin of mine and those family members who are able will be in the heart of the city that is the historical home of the Alamo to witness the exchange of vows. I have not been in San Antonio since the American Numismatic Association convention there in the spring of 1985. It was the heyday of Bob and Betty Medlar, both of whom have now passed on. Courtney Coffing, a retired co-worker, reminded me when I saw him at the Numismatists of Wisconsin convention May 17 that he had lived there in 1961. It seems that an awful lot of people have a connection to the city. Even though I have no plans to get numismatically involved, can I really spend three whole days without looking for a coin shop or otherwise dipping a toe in the numismatic waters? We’ll see. Fortunately for me, I don’t have any formal role. I just have to look happy, which will be easy because I am not footing the bill for the festivities.
5/22/2008 9:05:39 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Different sizes coming?
Posted by Dave
Yesterday’s ruling in favor of the blind by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia means changes could be coming to American paper money. Because current notes are all the same size regardless of denomination, the court said the Treasury was violating the Rehabilitation Act. The Treasury can appeal the decision to the Supreme Court. It may do so, but the collector in me begins to speculate about notes of different sizes or notes with Braille characters. My mind says different sizes is the preferred option, perhaps as a result of my experiences with euro notes in Germany, but even that isn’t without its bumps. Euro countries don’t have a 1. They have a coin. Will this occur in the United States as a result of a court ruling? Europeans don’t like the 5 because it is too small. It certainly is small, but I am more worried about notes being too big rather than too small. Braille strikes me as too easily subverted either by fakers putting Braille for high denominations on low-denomination notes, or by crushing the raised areas. Even if not deliberately crushed, how much wear can a note take before the Braille is not recognizable? The gears in my mind are still turning. I am sure other collectors have other thoughts. We’ll see over time how this all plays out. Of course, it might not be too long before we’ll be spending gas ration coupons rather than paper money.
5/21/2008 9:00:16 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Don't need to cry for Argentina
Posted by Dave
It is springtime in Iola. It is colder than normal, but it still is spring after a rough winter. Life always looks better as nature greens things up. It may be springtime for the U.S. dollar, too. It had a rough winter. Like Rodney Dangerfield, it got no respect, but now perhaps things are changing and the world may be returning to the traditional verities. I read yesterday that middle class people in Argentina are rushing to convert their pesos into – you guessed it – U.S. dollars. They fear the wheels are about to fall off their country’s economy. After a year and a half, Costa Rica’s colon is depreciating against the U.S. dollar. Officially measured inflation is running at more than 10 percent a year. The U.S. rate is consistently lower. Basic economics says the colon must fall and in the last couple of weeks, it has. Even the mighty euro is wobbling a bit. It was reported that the euro area’s monthly trade balance has swung into deficit. That by itself doesn’t mean much, but it does mean there is a net European demand for imported goods, which is a good thing for countries outside its borders that worry about an economic slowdown. What does it mean for collectors? Well, too much stock shouldn’t be placed in short-term currency fluctuations, but for gold buyers whose sole argument for buying is U.S. dollar weakness might need to find something else to hang their hats on. Far better to buy collector coins, the demand for which is long-term and whose prices tend to rise with American incomes and inflation. Collectors get the gold and silver content as a kicker. Buying collector coins means you don’t really have to worry about the dollar or how the people of Argentina view it. You will have more fun, too.
5/20/2008 9:10:27 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Monday, May 19, 2008
Collectors find a haven
Posted by Dave
The Numismatists of Wisconsin show in Iola, Wis., is over. As shows go, it is not at the top of the standings, but shows like this are what make numismatics tick. It is a bread and butter show of a kind that sends you away thinking things are going to be just fine. I saw a couple looking at multiple examples of a 1914-D Lincoln cent to find just the right one. I saw several elderly women each with a handful of silver coins selling them off to dealers at current prices. They seemed pleased to be able to do so. I saw George Cuhaj and Howard Quimby and 10 Boy Scouts head for their merit badge clinic. I saw American Numismatic Association vice president Patti Finner conducting a treasure hunt for young collectors as well as conducting state quarter quizzes. I saw an 8-year-old boy and his 6-year-old sister sorting through every single coin in a friendly dealer’s junk box. They were supervised by their mother. Chet Krause, the founder of Numismatic News, was there to reminisce about 48 years of NOW from his perspective of someone who has collected for roughly seven decades. It was the type of show that fills the weekends of collectors across the country. It was grass roots. It wasn’t ostentatious. It was collectors being themselves. Perhaps the best comment was from Jerry Koepp of Coins, Stamps ’n’ Stuff, Des Moines, Iowa. “It’s surprising they can bring so many people into this little town.” That’s a tribute to the organizational skills of Joel Edler as bourse chairman and ANA governor Cliff Mishler, who should be called the social director. Am I prejudiced? Of course. I am always prejudiced in favor of collectors. Collectors go where they are wanted and where they feel at home. This past weekend that home was Iola, Wis.
5/19/2008 8:59:58 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Friday, May 16, 2008
Knocked off sale
Posted by Dave
They just went on sale May 5, but already the frisky price of platinum has forced the Mint to suspend sales of the four-coin 2008 platinum proof Eagle set. The set contains 1.85 troy ounces of the precious metal. At today's closing price for platinum of $2,132 an ounce, the four-coin set contains $3,944.20 in precious metal. Individual proof platinum coins are still available from the Mint. Gold narrowly missed the $900 mark and closed the week's trading at $899. Silver closed at $16.904. Does this mean the downward correction in precious metals prices is over?
5/16/2008 5:08:42 PM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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