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 Thursday, April 24, 2008
Giving up the cent
Posted by Dave
The cent has been a hot topic of discussion by collectors and the subject of the "Numismatic News" online poll. Both sides of the abolition question weigh in, with the majority still leaning to retention of the historic denomination. However, opinions aside, are the American people through their use patterns giving the coin up? I ask the question because I took a look at the total cent production in the first quarter of 2008. It stands at 1,053,600,000. That’s a large number until you start making some comparisons. If that is the quarterly production figure, it is fair to project that production for the year will be four times that amount, or 4,214,400,000 coins. That figure is down from the total in 2007, which was 7,401,200,000. The 2006 total was 8,234,000,000. See the pattern? It seems dramatic, but if you go back to the peak of the last boom times, the year 2000 production totals, what do you think the number is? 14,277,420,000 Wow. Ten billion fewer cents will be produced this year than in 2000. That’s billion with a “b.” That’s a significant decline no matter how you slice it. I am sure you have heard it pointed out that Coinstar, which puts counting machines in supermarkets, recirculates more cents than was the case in the past. It is true, but is this factor sufficient to explain the huge mintage drop or is there something else at work? More credit transactions perhaps? Spontaneous rounding or use of the now common “take a penny” dish at many shops? World coin collectors are used to seeing inflation in other countries push coins out of use. Is it happening here?
4/24/2008 8:58:45 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Always look for the next one
Posted by Dave
Last week while I was attending the Central States Numismatic Society convention I passed a milestone. It was my 30th anniversary of employment here at Krause Publications. Time flies when you do what you love. I was able to be working on the occasion, attending the sale of the David Queller Family Collection and watching how someone who clearly loves the hobby and his coins lets them go to others. David Queller offered his blessings to all of the buyers of his coins. What a noble gesture. It is an example that I have seen in numismatics often enough over three decades to know that we are a hobby populated by gracious individuals, who while deeply attached to coins themselves, also see the many other collectors out there who are as attached to their coins as they are and know in their bones the sense of achievement that being able to own significant rarities offers. No sooner had the last lot sold and the excitement of the moment died away than David Queller was looking forward to working on other coin collections. That’s a real collector. It is also every collector. In my time here, I have learned that you don’t have to buy an 1804 dollar to achieve that deep sense of satisfaction. It comes to us all as we acquire a 1909-S VDB cent to finish a Lincoln cent set or a 1913-S quarter to finish a Barber set. Meaning comes from striving toward the collecting goal, no matter how we choose to define it, and taking satisfaction in acquiring the pieces that this goal entails. Then there is that element of always looking forward to the next purchase and the next set. We are never satisfied, but in this condition we all take great satisfaction. Too philosophical? Well, on an anniversary such as this, I hope you will allow it. I am still out here as we all move forward together.
4/23/2008 9:05:31 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Push forward or pause?
Posted by Dave
It is primary election day in Pennsylvania. This is a good time to bring up an election-related numismatic topic that was brought to my attention by David Sundman, president of Littleton, in a conversation we had at the Central States Numismatic Society convention this past week. His firm is a direct marketing machine. It does what works and stops doing what doesn’t. Sundman made the observation that it is harder to sell coins to people during a presidential election year. Do his potential buyers become more skeptical? Are they more conservative with their money? Are they simply hanging back to see which way the political winds blow and evaluating how a change in direction might affect their personal budgets? Any and all of these are plausible reasons to be a harder sell. This year we might add that a threatening recession might have something to do with it. But on the other hand, the very factors that seem to make Sundman’s collector clients less receptive to buying coins are also prompting other buyers to step forward to buy up 2008 American Eagle silver bullion coins and cause them to be in such short supply that the Mint is rationing them. It is also causing other buyers to look at the great rarities as assets that will stand the test of time, weather the current bout of inflation and reward the owner with not only the satisfaction of possessing something few can ever own but also with a favorable return on investment. So how is your mood? Are you buying coins in your usual fashion? Are you holding back? Are you aggressive and energized, or are you idling in neutral?
4/22/2008 8:54:04 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Monday, April 21, 2008
Paper money makes a move
Posted by Dave
I am just back from the Central States Numismatic Society convention in the Chicago suburb of Rosemont. It was a good and enjoyable show. I am especially glad that I did not have to attend the Heritage paper money auction to the end of each session. One session lasted until 3:15 a.m. The following one lasted until 5 a.m. I don’t know what kind of prices the lots that come up at 4:30 in the morning brought, but any bidder still in the room deserves the numismatic Iron Man Award. Prices overall were strong. I heard more than one observer call some of the prices “stupid money.” That is prices are so high there seems to be no restraint at all on the part of the bidder. Perhaps those bidders know something I do not, but another person said that if you brought some of those lots directly from the auction to the bourse floor they would not have brought one-sixth the price. Well, that situation will not last long as every dealer will be studying prices realized and repricing inventory accordingly. It would appear that CSNS has set the hobby up for another leg in the current up market. For paper money, I will look forward to the Memphis show at the end of June to take another on-the-spot reading.
4/21/2008 8:52:20 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Friday, April 18, 2008
1804 dollar sale brings anticipation, hunger
Posted by dave
I was hungry. The market for rare coins was hungrier last night. The Queller family collection featuring an 1804 dollar attracted a crowd. Hundreds packed the auction room at the convention center in Rosemont, Ill. Bob Merrill opened the Heritage sale by introducing a formally attired Leo Frese as auctioneer just past 6:30 p.m. I was hungry because I had had no supper. Bob Van Ryzin and I had gone directly from the bourse floor to the auction room. I was talking to as many people for CoinChatRadio.com as possible. Ironically, many of them were eating. The sense of anticipation was strong. Dave Queller’s son, Howard, said it was like waiting for a wedding. That was a good way to put it. When the bride, the 1804 dollar, became the center of attention it brought $3,737,500. That includes the 15% buyer’s fee. It was sold to an Internet buyer who had never seen it. After the sale, instead of rushing the buyer, which they couldn’t do since he wasn’t there, many individuals approached David Queller to ask him to autograph their auction catalogs, which he graciously did. He told me afterwards that his knees were still shaking. That sounds like a father of the bride, too. Then it was over. The market was fed. I got fed at 9 p.m.
4/18/2008 9:26:15 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Thursday, April 17, 2008
I want to hear ‘Sold’
Posted by dave
My bags are packed. I’m ready to go. But I’m not leavin’ on a jet plane. I am able to drive by Chicago O’Hare Airport on my way to the Central States Numismatic Society Convention in Rosemont. I am looking forward to it. History might be in the making at the Heritage auction tonight. An 1804 silver dollar will go on the block. Will it sell? What will the sale price be? I am curious. I am also a tad superstitious about this. I had an 1804 silver dollar in my hand at the Central States convention in 1980. That’s the famous Lincoln, Neb., event where everyone realized the coin market had died. Bullion had peaked a few months before in January 1980. The coin market was operating on fumes for a time afterwards, but in Lincoln everyone realized the good times, then called “the party,” were over. I have always considered this a one-time event, but ever since I heard that an 1804 dollar was going to be offered today at Central States, I have had that little nagging fear in the back of my mind that history could repeat itself. I hope to report tomorrow that that is not the case at all.
4/17/2008 8:58:10 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Sweet smell of experience
Posted by Dave
I received a couple of cents in change yesterday along with two quarters a dime and nickel. Both lay in my hand Memorial side up. My first thought was one was zinc. The other was copper. I turned them over. Sure enough, that’s what they were. Recognition of this kind is not exactly the most exciting news, but it got me thinking about rolled-up sleeve collecting of the kind we did during the circulation finds era. What is the equivalent today? Collectors of the time looked at huge numbers of coins in hopes of finding a 1909-S VDB cent or a 1916-D dime. I never found either one, or anything that was truly valuable, but I did get an education. I learned what metals looked like. I could tell the difference between silver and copper-nickel without having to look at the tell-tale edge that the general public relied on. I could tell you a date range a coin would fall into from the reverse just looking at the wear. I could tell what a real uncirculated coin looked like versus something that had been played with. None of these so-called skills would be of much interest at a cocktail party because all of the collectors of the day had to wash their dirty fingers after a coin examination session just like I did. But we all learned the texture and feel of real coins and even their smell. What of the collectors of today when they are facing an onslaught of fake coins from China? How will they know the difference if they have basically not handled many or even any of the real ones? If all you do is buy coins that are encapsulated either by the Mint or a grading service, how will you ever learn what we circulation finds collectors learned by simply rolling up our sleeves and diving into a pile of coins?
4/16/2008 9:01:34 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Will I regret it?
Posted by dave
I am going to regret writing this. I received an e-mail yesterday. I laughed out loud when I saw it. I share it with you. Look at the upper right portion of the note.  What do you think? It kind of hurts, too. Doesn’t it? Collectors are nothing if not clever. They also appreciate a good joke. This one was too good not to share, but I open a door that perhaps I should leave closed. I do not want to receive the best jokes my readers are aware of. I am not anti-reader. I am not anti-joke, but one of the problems with online communications is the urge to share humor. There is simply too much of it. I do not have time to read it all or take a look at it. Don’t take this blog as an encouragement to send me additional humorous items. Send me the news as always.
4/15/2008 9:01:19 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Monday, April 14, 2008
Eaglet takes to the wilds
Posted by Dave
It likely won’t have an impact on the ultimate sales totals for the Bald Eagle commemorative coins being sold this year, but the Mint nonetheless deserves applause for a public relations feat on behalf of the program. Country music singer Dolly Parton participated April 10 in the release of an eaglet by the American Eagle Foundation at Douglas Lake near the Great Smokey Mountains in Tennessee. Not to denigrate the appeal of the star, but coin collectors are a stubborn bunch. They make up their own minds. They don’t easily get stampeded into doing something by noncollectors. Fortunately, the coin program is an appealing one. Eagle images have appeared on the coins of the United States since the U.S. Mint opened. Some looked scrawny. Some looked majestic. Some, such as the one on the Bridgeport, Conn., commemorative looked positively supersonic. But, hey, showman P.T. Barnum is on the other side. What other kind of eagle would have suited him? Collectors like our national emblem. They have strong attachments to the images and strong opinions about how they look. They probably are pleased to be joined in this appreciation by Parton. The Bald Eagle program adds some new renditions that collectors seem happy with. Roughly half the silver dollars and $5 gold pieces have been sold. Perhaps all of the coins will sell out by the end of the year. Whether they sell out or not, the appearance of Dolly Parton in a related event creates a long-lasting positive memory of the program that we will be recalling for many years as we write about it in the future.
4/14/2008 9:02:05 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Friday, April 11, 2008
Recession with a twist
Posted by Dave
The United States may be in a recession. There seems to be something close to an economic consensus on this point, but what a peculiar one it seems to be when sitting in my chair. Everybody sees life from his own perspective and what I am seeing strikes me as odd. I had to go to the dentist yesterday. Two and a half hours in the chair is no fun, but it is sometimes necessary. On my way back to the office, I heard an advertisement on my car radio from an area employer urging people to apply for jobs there. This ad by itself would probably signify nothing, but it occurred during a period when I am also seeing an ad on a local TV station where another company is seeking qualified employees. I don’t remember any recession where advertisements were airing looking for workers. Now I am old enough to have seen enough downturns to know that they all have characteristics in common, but they also have their own unique stupidities that either caused them or contributed to them, but I don’t want to write about subprime loans. Perhaps the underlying economy is redefining itself. Fewer financial workers in Manhattan, more jobs in central and northeast Wisconsin. We will see. As evidence of the downturn, there seem to be fewer people eating at the Crystal Cafe during my lunch hour. People are there in large enough numbers when Social Security payments have made it to the local bank, but as the month goes on, I am seeing less of the work lunch crowd. I also carefully look at my change. Times of economic stress tend to flush out older coins and notes. I have begun to see that. Wednesday I had pie for dessert, so my change from my $9.97 tab was just three cents. All three were the 95-percent copper alloy that hasn’t been produced since 1982. The week before I got some older $1 Federal Reserve Notes. One was a Series 1981. Whoa, that surprised me. Others were Series 1995, so I quickly scanned them to see if they were Web notes. They weren't. Darn. Overall, I can’t say that there is no recession, only that it has peculiar ramifications. What are you seeing in your area?
4/11/2008 9:04:13 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Thursday, April 10, 2008
Maryland deserves our thanks
Posted by dave
I take my hat off to the State of Maryland. It is not everyday a story comes to my attention where a state legislature rallies to the needs of the coin dealer community, but just such a story came to my attention yesterday. There is a trader licensing law that kicks in if dealers attend more than three shows each year in the state. Ordinarily, nobody in numismatics would pay attention to its provisions, but because the Baltimore show is now three times each year and the American Numismatic Association World’s Fair of Money is slated for Baltimore in July, provisions of this law could have kicked in and created headaches for the nation’s coin dealers. Well, what happened was the owners of the Baltimore show, Whitman, teamed up with the ANA and the Industry Council for Tangible Assets to lobby the Maryland legislature about the issue. And in a legislative wink of an eye (not four or five years) Maryland modified the law to allow coin dealers the freedom to attend the four shows without triggering the provisions of the licensing law and without Maryland seeming to massively rewrite the law at the behest of a special interest. It is a win-win situation all the way around. This outcome gives us all another reason to love to go to Baltimore for a numismatic convention. Thanks, Maryland. Whitman, ANA and ICTA deserve our praise as well.
4/10/2008 8:58:43 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Wednesday, April 09, 2008
Seasons still come
Posted by Dave
I had to shovel snow this morning. We had an inch or two of heavy slushy snow overnight. It was far worse to the north and east, so I won’t complain. I will use the snow as a timely reminder of the seasonality of the coin hobby. Sooner or later it will truly warm up and stay warmed up. Then collectors, being only human, will embark on their summertime activities. Whether it is gardening or water skiing, I don’t know, but their attention will shift away from the hobby and to other things that have to be done in the seasonal moment. This means coin collecting will slow down a tad. Most years it does. The truly hot years override the seasonal pattern, but even with bullion as high as it is, conditions don’t seem to me to be such that the seasonal pattern will be overruled. The question in my mind is will hobbyist choose to take time away from the hobby in the weeks of summer prior to the American Numismatic Association World’s Fair of Money at the end of July in Baltimore, or will they choose the weeks afterwards? Or will the law of averages work out to evenly spread the downtime among all collectors? This question is too deep for me. Suffice it to say that if there is a noticeable slowdown this summer, that is an ordinary event. It won’t be the end of the hobby as we know it. It will be more like the hobby as old-timers have always known it. The same thing is true with this snow. It doesn’t snow every April 9 in Iola, but it happens often enough to keep the idea alive in my memory. As Chet Krause told me once, the only month he hasn’t seen snow in Iola is August. That’s a scary thought.
4/9/2008 8:54:35 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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