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 Friday, January 11, 2008
Old friends are good ones at NSDR
Posted by dave
Fridays at the annual Florida United Numismatists conventions are always topped off for me by attendance at the National Silver Dollar Roundtable dinner. It is a great time with good hobby friends at a Ruth’s Chris Steakhouse. I eat more red meat than is good for me, but how can I resist? I burn a few calories off by taking photographs of the awards. I am looking forward to seeing who wins them tonight. Randy Campbell always does an excellent job as emcee. It is gratifying to see how hard work and reputation add up to recognition and heartfelt congratulations by hobby peers. The years fly by and it is by these milestones that the participants remember their time in the hobby.
1/11/2008 9:01:35 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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 Thursday, January 10, 2008
Did I make it to FUN?
Posted by dave
I am here in Orlando, Fla. Four Numismatic News staffers set out for the Florida United Numismatists convention on three separate flights. Before we had even left the office Tuesday night, Sue Konkel was already trying to make alternative arrangements for a Wednesday flight that was cancelled many hours ahead of time. Travel in the winter from central Wisconsin through Chicago is always an adventure. My Dec. 1 transit was delayed to Dec. 2 by an early snow storm. Don’t get me wrong. I would rather be safe than sorry, but the best outcome is to get to FUN with minimal problems and delays. Well. I made it. Now I just have to worry about getting home on Sunday.
1/10/2008 9:04:26 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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 Wednesday, January 09, 2008
Gold making bold moves
Posted by dave
Gold just keeps on pouring it on. It jumped $18.40 yesterday. That brought the close to $878 a troy ounce, so whatever old high you use, $825, $850 or $875, we are now safely over all of them. We are on historic ground. Can $900 be more than just a coffee break away? Yes, my tone is flippant. Movements are getting to be very large in short spans of time. That is dangerous for markets because they tend to become more unstable with larger incremental hikes in the price. For long-term staying power, 20 trading days of $5 movements are better and more long lasting than $100 in five days. They also allow for better business conditions on coin show bourse floors. With the Florida United Numismatists bourse setting up later today, there can be no question that coin dealer behavior will be affected by any large swings in precious metal prices. No question, though, it is the very large moves that get the adrenalin pumping and capture the headlines.
1/9/2008 9:07:01 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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 Tuesday, January 08, 2008
Do you know the right price?
Posted by dave
I think thanks are in order to the individuals who have posted comments on this blog in the past week or so. It has been hard slogging for casual readers with statistics of precious metals prices and rates of return posted. I think the topics were worth covering from time to time. I have joked in this space that mentioning Britney Spears would get more attention. That is still true, but that is what gives the thoughtful people the edge in their numismatic hobby lives. Vicarious thrills are one thing, but they are not bankable in the long run. Who was the Britney Spears equivalent in January 1980? I have no idea. Perhaps someone will be kind enough to post a name or two on this column to enlighten us. Though few of us remember the pop cultural figures, we do remember the metals prices and consider them to be significant. We use this information to guide future decisions. It has been pointed out that in inflation-adjusted terms that the price of gold is far below 1980’s price. There is no question about that. What focuses my mind on the question, though, is what is the appropriate value of gold relative to everything else? We can make a case that gold was too high in 1980 relative to everything else. It was too low in 1968 at the official price of $35 an ounce. At those extremes, decisions to bur or sell might seem obvious. There were lines in front of coins shops in 1980 by individuals dumping their precious metal holdings as fast as they could. That should have told us something. So far, that phenomenon has not occurred again here, but supposedly it has started in India. Does it matter? Yes. Is it definitive? I don’t think so.
1/8/2008 9:04:20 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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 Monday, January 07, 2008
Perhaps we do need cheerleaders
Posted by Dave
Numismatics will have its Super Bowl before the National Football League does. It is this week. It is the whole week, but it is not a single event. At minimum it is two events. Two major conventions are set to occur. For the U.S. coin hobby, all eyes are on the Florida United Numismatists convention Jan. 10-13 in Orlando. For the world coin hobby, all eyes will be on the New York International Numismatic Convention Jan. 11-13. Both events have many major auctions associated with them both officially and unofficially. They begin before the conventions actually open. Many tens of millions of dollars’ worth of material goes on the auction block. How bidders respond will tell us a lot about what 2008 is going to be like for the commercial segment of the numismatic hobby. If weather permits, I hope to arrive in Orlando on Wednesday to take as much of it in as possible with other members of the Numismatic News staff. George Cuhaj will be in New York for the same reason. Let’s see what happens. We don’t have bands or cheerleaders, but there are a lot of people as intensely interested in the outcome of this week as any die hard football fan. Who are you rooting for?
1/7/2008 9:05:28 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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 Friday, January 04, 2008
Start looking for the real $1 million note
Posted by Dave
Give U.S. paper money a try in 2008. You might make history in future years by being the first to sell a $1 million small-size note. That day is still quite a ways into the future, but some collectors starting now will still be active when it happens. It may be fun to chase the items made of gold, silver or platinum that are currently making headlines, but moving along quietly higher are bank notes that the paper money hobby calls small-size currency. Small-size is basically the current size, which was introduced July 10, 1929, with the notes that went before them being larger. They, quite naturally enough, are called large-size currency. Hobbyists being hobbyists adopted terminology that made distinctions that highlighted the basic difference between the two. From that point on for a couple of generations, the small-size notes were collected like coin collectors collect Jefferson nickels now. They were there, but compared to the colorful large-size predecessors, they weren’t where the action was. That has been changing since the large-head currency was introduced in 1996 and the pace of change has accelerated since the widespread adoption of third-party grading by paper money collectors. Newcomers, who come mostly from the coin field, gravitate to what they know. They know a coin grading system that is numbered 1-70, so paper money collectors informally began using numbers. They know third-party coin grading firms, so it is not a leap of faith when the same firm offers third-party paper money grading. Finally, collectors usually begin in a new field with the most familiar items, and that would be small-size notes. Few people alive today remember using large-size notes. Besides, large-size notes have gotten expensive. There are still reasonable prices in the small-size field. If you are looking to collect something for the next 25 or 30 years, that would seem to me to point to something that still has a lot of upside potential left. These notes will seldom be in the headlines as long as precious metals are making new highs, but someday they will be. Collectors today have the opportunity of getting in, not on the ground floor, but you would need to be around 90 years old for that to truly be the case. Someday a small-size note will bring $1 million, which means the current rarities will have to rise in price by 25 or 30 times. Which note it will be is now up to you to find. Go for it.
1/4/2008 9:01:06 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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 Thursday, January 03, 2008
Off to the races
Posted by Dave
Wow, look at that parade of round numbers yesterday. Oil hit $100 a barrel. Gold went through the $850 record price of 1980 and closed at $857. Silver shot through $15. If it was a hard asset, it went up in price. Those of us with long memories might want to cast our minds back to January 1980, the last time gold was trading at such a lofty level. It might be a cautionary tale, because 1980’s rise did not have a happy ending. The first trading day of 1980 saw gold rise $26.80 to close at $575.50 a troy ounce. By Jan. 21, the price hit a trading high of $875 and closed at $825, while the London price, which was the benchmark, was at $850. The reasons for gold’s rise at that time are the same reasons as today. Inflation was perceived as rising out of control. The dollar was weak. The future was uncertain. Markets ran as far and as fast as buyer enthusiasm could carry them. But then buyers either lost their enthusiasm or ran out of money, with a little help from market trading authorities who discovered that Nelson Bunker Hunt had led an effort to try to corner the silver market. Controls were put on trading and the attempted corner was unwound, much to the detriment of silver’s price. It went from $50 a troy ounce to $10.80 by March 27, 1980. Gold followed the downward path set by silver. It hit $463 by March 27. It was an event that was followed by 20 years of a generally down market. January market enthusiasm is an interesting phenomenon to watch. Let’s hope it doesn’t get carried away as it did in 1980 and set the stage for a painful decline.
1/3/2008 9:00:57 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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 Wednesday, January 02, 2008
What does 2008 hold for precious metals?
Posted by Dave
Platinum was the market champion of the three precious metals that most collectors watch. In 2007, its price rose by 33.89 percent from the final close in 2006. Gold was no slouch. It came in close behind by registering a 31.44 percent gain. Silver was the laggard, but few are unhappy with the result. It was still up 15.44 percent for the year, far more than the rise that could be obtained in the Dow Jones Industrial Average of 6.4 percent, or in the average price of a house, which declined by a similar figure. Holders of the metals are feeling mighty good. I took a look at the performance of the three metals since the close of the year 2000. These numbers then reverse themselves. Silver is the champion with a gain of 223 percent followed by gold at 207 percent and platinum at 150 percent. These numbers also aren’t shabby. Anyone who owned platinum probably isn’t complaining that silver should have been the investment choice. Interestingly, gold is the most stable in its path. It went up all seven years, with gains of 2.46 percent in 2001, 24.72 percent in 2002, 19.59 percent in 2003, 5.24 percent in 2004, 18.29 percent in 2005, 22.84 percent in 2006 and 31.44 percent in 2007. Silver and platinum seem a bit more bound to the business cycle. Both of these actually declined in 2001, which was a weak economic year. Silver was barely lower with a figure of negative 0.13 percent, while platinum was down 19.05 percent. Then both perked up and never looked back. Silver’s pattern was up 4.85 percent in 2002, 24.00 percent in 2003, 14.35 percent in 2004, 29.57 percent in 2005, 45.33 percent in 2006 and 15.44 percent in 2007. Platinum registered increases of 22.60 percent in 2002, 34.23 percent in 2003, 6.46 percent in 2004, 12.65 percent in 2005, 17.09 percent in 2006 and 33.89 percent in 2007. Where will they go from here? Well, for today, look at the pattern and consider what you think will happen in 2008. If you want to share, post it below or e-mail me at david.harper@fwpubs.com.
1/2/2008 9:00:08 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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 Monday, December 31, 2007
Happy New Year to all
Posted by Dave
There is little new to report about the ANACS sale. My thanks go to Gar for posting the ANACS e-mail to my prior blog. It arrived in my e-mail also, but I had left the office at 12:30 p.m. to use up a little vacation time that I would have lost otherwise. Checked my phone messages this morning. There is nothing on voicemail relating to the ANACS sale. So I will again play the Maytag repairman today. With much of the country having today off, I would not anticipate anything until Wednesday. I would also like to thank William P. for his posting. I had two voicemails. One was a good wish for a happy new year. The other wondered how quantities of proof coins can appear in Internet auctions before all of the back-ordered single proof orders are fulfilled. Mint deliveries are a perennial question. Why does the Mint do what it does? Today I have to begin facing the final results of my 2007 forecasts and see what happens. I know I was spectacularly wrong about the price of gold, but I will add it all up and do a full accounting. My talk to the Sarasota Coin Club at the annual Florida United Numismatists convention Jan. 12 will be based on this assessment. Happy New Year to my phone caller and to all hobbyists. The year 2008 should be an interesting one, but has the hobby had any other kind?
12/31/2007 9:04:43 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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 Friday, December 28, 2007
ANACS sold. Now what?
Posted by Dave
I spent much of yesterday waiting for return phone calls that never came. ANACS, the third-party grading service in Austin, Texas, was sold by Anderson Press, Inc., the owners of Whitman Publishing, and rumors were swirling online about it since Wednesday afternoon. A terse press release confirming the sale was sent to me by Mary Counts from Whitman Books at 4:28 p.m. Thursday (my time). I appreciated getting it. The buyer is Driving Force, LLC, owned by James Taylor, a former head of the grading service put in place when Anderson first purchased it from Amos Press in 2005. It was Taylor who led the firm’s move from Ohio to Austin, Texas, and is now leading the firm’s move to Colorado. Taylor’s career also included stints at Independent Coin Grading and the American Numismatic Association. Driving Force is a newly formed limited liability company that was registered Dec. 3 with the Colorado Secretary of State’s office. I left voicemails Thursday morning on the cellphones of Mary Counts of Whitman and James Taylor. They have not been returned as of this posting. The press release says the sale occurred Dec. 21. Employees were told of it Dec. 26. At the old weekly newspaper pace of news gathering, there was nothing unusual about waiting for phone calls. That’s the way it worked. But at Internet speed, waiting for phone calls like this seems agonizingly slow, especially with the online comments accumulating at warp speed. The message boards at PCGS were full of speculation. What’s the status of the coins currently in the company’s hands? How were employees being treated? Someone had talked to someone who had worked at ANACS. He said ... The fact is, I had a telephone conversation with a former employee as well. But no matter the speed at which it is now technologically possible to post information, I have to be certain it’s accurate, hence the need to get through to the principals in the transaction. Thank you, Mary Counts, for that. But I have more questions, as I’m certain you do, so I will continue to wait by the telephone like the Maytag repairman. I will share additional information as I get it.
12/28/2007 9:05:11 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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 Thursday, December 27, 2007
More collectors are coming
Posted by Dave
This is the time of year when collectors like to join the rest of the population to peer into the future to try to make out what might happen. Wading in with a handy forecast is John Kamin of the Forecaster Moneyletter. I have been reading Kamin’s work on and off since 1969. He says the population of the United States will double from the current 300 million people to 600 million by 2058, a half century from now. What are the implications? Twice the current number of Americans will affect everything from farming to home building, but where it especially interests me is the impact on coin collecting. There will likely be more of us in 50 years, probably twice as many. Kamin doesn’t delve into the specifics, so allow me to fill in with my own thoughts. We know coin collecting has a long and deeply rooted history. Numismatics dates back to Renaissance princes, 500-year-old German references, more than 200-year-old, mass-produced British Conder tokens to over a century-old approach to collecting American coins by date and mintmark. This great age doesn’t tell me what people will collect in 50 years, but it does tell me of the long-term stability of numismatics. Our hobby descendents will be here and be very active. Proportions might change. There are more coin collectors in the United States than paper money collectors. Paper money collectors will probably increase their share going forward. But there probably will be even more emphasis on coins of precious metal than even now as inflation and coin substitutes continue to devalue those coins that actually circulate. It will be an interesting half century ahead of us. Let’s plan on sticking around as it unfolds.
12/27/2007 9:04:37 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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 Wednesday, December 26, 2007
I'm looking for the doubled die
Posted by Dave
Christmas seems to have been a quiet one for collectors. A quick scan of some news headlines has so far not revealed anything out of the ordinary. That is a good thing. The risk for anybody who makes a living gathering news as I do is to be unavailable for the big story. The perennials seem to be in bloom. The Salvation Army has been getting gold and platinum bullion coins in its red kettles. Collectors have always applauded the generosity of the gifts and cringed at the idea of someone banging around coins made of precious metal. These gifts are also like the 25th rerun of “It’s a Wonderful Life.” When gold was first legalized Dec. 31, 1974, after a ban on ownership that stretched back to 1933, it was startling when the first gold coin gift was given to the Salvation Army. Now it is a matter of routine. I saw a story posted on Coinflation about an individual who bought a truck using his accumulated change. This gives me the opportunity to mention what element would make such a story numismatic, because the general media seems to think that anytime coins are used to purchase anything more than a candy bar, that it is worth a story – and perhaps for them it is. What would make the truck purchase story truly numismatic is if the car salesman or other staff member at the dealership would personally examine all of the coins and then discover a 1972 doubled-die cent among them. Then I would really be interested. Wouldn’t you?
12/26/2007 9:03:21 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)
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