Give U.S. paper money a try in 2008. You might make history in future years by being the first to sell a $1 million small-size note. That day is still quite a ways into the future, but some collectors starting now will still be active when it happens.

It may be fun to chase the items made of gold, silver or platinum that are currently making headlines, but moving along quietly higher are bank notes that the paper money hobby calls small-size currency.

Small-size is basically the current size, which was introduced July 10, 1929, with the notes that went before them being larger. They, quite naturally enough, are called large-size currency. Hobbyists being hobbyists adopted terminology that made distinctions that highlighted the basic difference between the two.

From that point on for a couple of generations, the small-size notes were collected like coin collectors collect Jefferson nickels now. They were there, but compared to the colorful large-size predecessors, they weren’t where the action was.

That has been changing since the large-head currency was introduced in 1996 and the pace of change has accelerated since the widespread adoption of third-party grading by paper money collectors.

Newcomers, who come mostly from the coin field, gravitate to what they know. They know a coin grading system that is numbered 1-70, so paper money collectors informally began using numbers. They know third-party coin grading firms, so it is not a leap of faith when the same firm offers third-party paper money grading.

Finally, collectors usually begin in a new field with the most familiar items, and that would be small-size notes. Few people alive today remember using large-size notes.

Besides, large-size notes have gotten expensive. There are still reasonable prices in the small-size field.

If you are looking to collect something for the next 25 or 30 years, that would seem to me to point to something that still has a lot of upside potential left.

These notes will seldom be in the  headlines as long as precious metals are making new highs, but someday they will be. Collectors today have the opportunity of getting in, not on the ground floor, but you would need to be around 90 years old for that to truly be the case.

Someday a small-size note will bring $1 million, which means the current rarities will have to rise in price by 25 or 30 times. Which note it will be is now up to you to find. Go for it.

Platinum was the market champion of the three precious metals that most collectors watch. In 2007, its price rose by 33.89 percent from the final close in 2006.

Gold was no slouch. It came in close behind by registering a 31.44 percent gain.

Silver was the laggard, but few are unhappy with the result. It was still up 15.44 percent for the year, far more than the rise that could be obtained in the Dow Jones Industrial Average of 6.4 percent, or in the average price of a house, which declined by a similar figure.

Holders of the metals are feeling mighty good.

I took a look at the performance of the three metals since the close of the year 2000. These numbers then reverse themselves. Silver is the champion with a gain of 223 percent followed by gold at 207 percent and platinum at 150 percent. These numbers also aren’t shabby. Anyone who owned platinum probably isn’t complaining that silver should have been the investment choice.

Interestingly, gold is the most stable in its path. It went up all seven years, with gains of 2.46 percent in 2001, 24.72 percent in 2002, 19.59 percent in 2003, 5.24 percent in 2004, 18.29 percent in 2005, 22.84 percent in 2006 and 31.44 percent in 2007.

Silver and platinum seem a bit more bound to the business cycle. Both of these actually declined in 2001, which was a weak economic year. Silver was barely lower with a figure of negative 0.13 percent, while platinum was down 19.05 percent. Then both perked up and never looked back.

Silver’s pattern was up 4.85 percent in 2002, 24.00 percent in 2003, 14.35 percent in 2004, 29.57 percent in 2005, 45.33 percent in 2006 and 15.44 percent in 2007.

Platinum registered increases of 22.60 percent in 2002, 34.23 percent in 2003, 6.46 percent in 2004, 12.65 percent in 2005, 17.09 percent in 2006 and 33.89 percent in 2007.

Where will they go from here? Well, for today, look at the pattern and consider what you think will happen in 2008.

If you want to share, post it below or e-mail me at david.harper@fwpubs.com.

I spent much of yesterday waiting for return phone calls that never came. ANACS, the third-party grading service in Austin, Texas, was sold by Anderson Press, Inc., the owners of Whitman Publishing, and rumors were swirling online about it since Wednesday afternoon.

A terse press release confirming the sale was sent to me by Mary Counts from Whitman Books at 4:28 p.m. Thursday (my time). I appreciated getting it.

The buyer is Driving Force, LLC, owned by James Taylor, a former head of the grading service put in place when Anderson first purchased it from Amos Press in 2005. It was Taylor who led the firm’s move from Ohio to Austin, Texas, and is now leading the firm’s move to Colorado. Taylor’s career also included stints at Independent Coin Grading and the American Numismatic Association.

Driving Force is a newly formed limited liability company that was registered Dec. 3 with the Colorado Secretary of State’s office.

I left voicemails Thursday morning on the cellphones of Mary Counts of Whitman and James Taylor. They have not been returned as of this posting.

The press release says the sale occurred Dec. 21. Employees were told of it Dec. 26.

At the old weekly newspaper pace of news gathering, there was nothing unusual about waiting for phone calls. That’s the way it worked. But at Internet speed, waiting for phone calls like this seems agonizingly slow, especially with the online comments accumulating at warp speed.

The message boards at PCGS were full of speculation. What’s the status of the coins currently in the company’s hands? How were employees being treated?

Someone had talked to someone who had worked at ANACS. He said ...

The fact is, I had a telephone conversation with a former employee as well. But no matter the speed at which it is now technologically possible to post information, I have to be certain it’s accurate, hence the need to get through to the principals in the transaction. Thank you, Mary Counts, for that.

But I have more questions, as I’m certain you do, so I will continue to wait by the telephone like the Maytag repairman. I will share additional information as I get it.

This is the time of year when collectors like to join the rest of the population to peer into the future to try to make out what might happen.

Wading in with a handy forecast is John Kamin of the Forecaster Moneyletter. I have been reading Kamin’s work on and off since 1969.

He says the population of the United States will double from the current 300 million people to 600 million by 2058, a half century from now. What are the implications? Twice the current number of Americans will affect everything from farming to home building, but where it especially interests me is the impact on coin collecting. There will likely be more of us in 50 years, probably twice as many.

Kamin doesn’t delve into the specifics, so allow me to fill in with my own thoughts. We know coin collecting has a long and deeply rooted history. Numismatics dates back to Renaissance princes, 500-year-old German references, more than 200-year-old, mass-produced British Conder tokens to over a century-old approach to collecting American coins by date and mintmark.

This great age doesn’t tell me what people will collect in 50 years, but it does tell me of the long-term stability of numismatics. Our hobby descendents will be here and be very active.

Proportions might change. There are more coin collectors in the United States than paper money collectors. Paper money collectors will probably increase their share going forward.

But there probably will be even more emphasis on coins of precious metal than even now as inflation and coin substitutes continue to devalue those coins that actually circulate.

It will be an interesting half century ahead of us. Let’s plan on sticking around as it unfolds.

Christmas seems to have been a quiet one for collectors. A quick scan of some news headlines has so far not revealed anything out of the ordinary.

That is a good thing. The risk for anybody who makes a living gathering news as I do is to be unavailable for the big story. The perennials seem to be in bloom. The Salvation Army has been getting gold and platinum bullion coins in its red kettles.

Collectors have always applauded the generosity of the gifts and cringed at the idea of someone banging around coins made of precious metal. These gifts are also like the 25th rerun of “It’s a Wonderful Life.”

When gold was first legalized Dec. 31, 1974, after a ban on ownership that stretched back to 1933, it was startling when the first gold coin gift was given to the Salvation Army. Now it is a matter of routine.

I saw a story posted on Coinflation about an individual who bought a truck using his accumulated change. This gives me the opportunity to mention what element would make such a story numismatic, because the general media seems to think that anytime coins are used to purchase anything more than a candy bar, that it is worth a story – and perhaps for them it is.

What would make the truck purchase story truly numismatic is if the car salesman or other staff member at the dealership would personally examine all of the coins and then discover a 1972 doubled-die cent among them. Then I would really be interested. Wouldn’t you? 

The first-year-of-issue phenomenon is a familiar one to collectors. Look at many coin series and the very first ones are often cheaper than the rest of the set.

This springs from the souvenir hunting instinct many people have. Something that is new and interesting is immediately tucked away. It also stems oftentimes from higher mintages that help assure a smooth introduction of a new coin.

The First Spouse series may be taking on the contours of the first year of issue. One month into its sales period, the Dolley Madison First Spouse gold coin is still on the market with only half the maximum supply sold. This is the fourth coin in the set. The first three sold out in the first few hours they were offered.

We are now a week into the sales period of the 10th anniversary platinum American Eagle two-coin set that offers a proof and a reverse proof of the half-ounce coin. Maximum mintage is 30,000. Roughly half have been sold so far while a one-per-household order limit was in effect.

At the end of the initial seven days, the Mint says it will remove the order limits. What will then happen? Will buyers snap up quantities? Certainly some will driven on by that first-year-of issue impulse to get something first that is brand new to the market. There seem to be many willing buyers online who don’t seem fast enough to go directly to the Mint to get them.

Quantities, though, are a double-edged sword. They can depress market prices. If there is mass availability on the secondary market, that tends to dampen buyer enthusiasm.

We will see how these factors play out with the platinum set. With the facts we have, quantity buyers have a shot at acquiring roughly half the supply. That could keep secondary market prices lower. Their willingness to do so is what we don’t know this morning.