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 Thursday, December 27, 2007
More collectors are coming
Posted by Dave

This is the time of year when collectors like to join the rest of the population to peer into the future to try to make out what might happen.

Wading in with a handy forecast is John Kamin of the Forecaster Moneyletter. I have been reading Kamin’s work on and off since 1969.

He says the population of the United States will double from the current 300 million people to 600 million by 2058, a half century from now. What are the implications? Twice the current number of Americans will affect everything from farming to home building, but where it especially interests me is the impact on coin collecting. There will likely be more of us in 50 years, probably twice as many.

Kamin doesn’t delve into the specifics, so allow me to fill in with my own thoughts. We know coin collecting has a long and deeply rooted history. Numismatics dates back to Renaissance princes, 500-year-old German references, more than 200-year-old, mass-produced British Conder tokens to over a century-old approach to collecting American coins by date and mintmark.

This great age doesn’t tell me what people will collect in 50 years, but it does tell me of the long-term stability of numismatics. Our hobby descendents will be here and be very active.

Proportions might change. There are more coin collectors in the United States than paper money collectors. Paper money collectors will probably increase their share going forward.

But there probably will be even more emphasis on coins of precious metal than even now as inflation and coin substitutes continue to devalue those coins that actually circulate.

It will be an interesting half century ahead of us. Let’s plan on sticking around as it unfolds.



12/27/2007 9:04:37 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Wednesday, December 26, 2007
I'm looking for the doubled die
Posted by Dave

Christmas seems to have been a quiet one for collectors. A quick scan of some news headlines has so far not revealed anything out of the ordinary.

That is a good thing. The risk for anybody who makes a living gathering news as I do is to be unavailable for the big story. The perennials seem to be in bloom. The Salvation Army has been getting gold and platinum bullion coins in its red kettles.

Collectors have always applauded the generosity of the gifts and cringed at the idea of someone banging around coins made of precious metal. These gifts are also like the 25th rerun of “It’s a Wonderful Life.”

When gold was first legalized Dec. 31, 1974, after a ban on ownership that stretched back to 1933, it was startling when the first gold coin gift was given to the Salvation Army. Now it is a matter of routine.

I saw a story posted on Coinflation about an individual who bought a truck using his accumulated change. This gives me the opportunity to mention what element would make such a story numismatic, because the general media seems to think that anytime coins are used to purchase anything more than a candy bar, that it is worth a story – and perhaps for them it is.

What would make the truck purchase story truly numismatic is if the car salesman or other staff member at the dealership would personally examine all of the coins and then discover a 1972 doubled-die cent among them. Then I would really be interested. Wouldn’t you? 



12/26/2007 9:03:21 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Friday, December 21, 2007
Silver Eagles go back on sale
Posted by Dave

Little things can make for an interesting week. I figured I was pretty well done writing about the 2007-W uncirculated silver American Eagle coin.

In the Dec. 11 Mint Stats the asterisk went on the sales total of 562,877. The asterisk denotes that sales have stopped and the total is the last one available. In the Dec. 18 issue I wrote that the asterisk had come off because the total was rising again.

Earlier this week I received a phone call from someone who had read the Dec. 18 column, called the Mint and tried to buy one only to find that the individual coins were no longer available. He was  disappointed.

The Dec. 25 issue had not reached him yet telling him that the asterisk went back on and the only way now to get the coin is in the new 2007 Annual Uncirculated Dollar Coin Set that the Mint had created that includes the Presidential and Sacagawea dollars also.

I will be writing about the asterisk again. It comes off. Sales have resumed. I just had word yesterday that the 2007-W silver American Eagle goes back on sale today.

Sales were ended because the Mint had run out of packaging for the coin. The supplier told the Mint it can provide more in the middle of January. The Mint still has an unsold inventory of the coins, so rather than destroy them, sales resume.

Who would have thought I would be writing so much about asterisks? Who would have thought so many programs would stop and restart again this year?

Yes, I know that strong bullion markets often have been the provoking factor since September, but it sure is hard to keep readers informed of the on again, off again nature of sales this year.

The Mint has even sold coins on its Web site long after the program supposedly concluded with a sellout, because buyers stumbled on an offer on the site.

What a year. I know there are many collectors trying to gauge end-of-year rarity ranks of various coins and stop-and-go sales are not making this any easier.

How many more coins the Mint has was not revealed. We must keep guessing.



12/21/2007 9:03:02 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Thursday, December 20, 2007
Will quantity buyers pounce?
Posted by Dave

The first-year-of-issue phenomenon is a familiar one to collectors. Look at many coin series and the very first ones are often cheaper than the rest of the set.

This springs from the souvenir hunting instinct many people have. Something that is new and interesting is immediately tucked away. It also stems oftentimes from higher mintages that help assure a smooth introduction of a new coin.

The First Spouse series may be taking on the contours of the first year of issue. One month into its sales period, the Dolley Madison First Spouse gold coin is still on the market with only half the maximum supply sold. This is the fourth coin in the set. The first three sold out in the first few hours they were offered.

We are now a week into the sales period of the 10th anniversary platinum American Eagle two-coin set that offers a proof and a reverse proof of the half-ounce coin. Maximum mintage is 30,000. Roughly half have been sold so far while a one-per-household order limit was in effect.

At the end of the initial seven days, the Mint says it will remove the order limits. What will then happen? Will buyers snap up quantities? Certainly some will driven on by that first-year-of issue impulse to get something first that is brand new to the market. There seem to be many willing buyers online who don’t seem fast enough to go directly to the Mint to get them.

Quantities, though, are a double-edged sword. They can depress market prices. If there is mass availability on the secondary market, that tends to dampen buyer enthusiasm.

We will see how these factors play out with the platinum set. With the facts we have, quantity buyers have a shot at acquiring roughly half the supply. That could keep secondary market prices lower. Their willingness to do so is what we don’t know this morning.



12/20/2007 8:58:13 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)  #  Comments [1]
 Wednesday, December 19, 2007
Who has a better idea?
Posted by Dave

The energy bill passed yesterday. It will be signed by President George W. Bush today with all the pomp and fanfare the White House can muster.

While much of the attention will be focused on automobile economy standards, the coin hobby needs to focus on what it does to the lowly light bulb.

The incandescent bulb is on its way out. Why should we care? It is a little matter of our grading standards. They assume hobbyists use incandescent light because fluorescent light can conceal problems rather than reveal them.

I am not advocating trashing the planet, but the hobby needs to plan how to go about its business as the new realities of the 21st century take hold.

How will bourses be conducted if our current light bulbs become as rare as phonographs or videotapes? It might be easy for those of us of a certain age to simply shrug and figure it will be dealt with someday down the road by collectors who don’t happen to be us. The 2020 deadline seems a long way off.

Change might be disruptive. It might be virtually painless. It would be nice, though, to define it ahead of time. The last time I wrote about this topic I received no response. Perhaps this time, some hobbyists might begin to think about it.



12/19/2007 8:57:21 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)  #  Comments [2]
 Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Run, it's the ANA on patrol
Posted by Dave

Applicants for the job of executive director of the American Numismatic Association will have the opportunity to personally deliver their resumes to ANA President Barry Stuppler at his bourse table at the Florida United Numismatists convention in January in Orlando.

Whether planned or unplanned, the Jan. 11, 2008, deadline for resume submission occurs during the show.

That is a good thing. Individuals who have numismatic backgrounds are the most likely individuals to be on hand at FUN to contact Stuppler there. It is to be hoped that someone among them will be able to take the ANA in hand to end the past decade of organizational tumult and take the organized hobby into the 21st century.

Last week when I first heard of the job posting, I wrote here that a hobby background is the critical factor in any future executive director. I have marveled and been mystified at the vehemence of opinion held by noncollectors about what collectors and their national organization should do.

That noncollector opinion I believe is what keeps leading ANA deeper and deeper into areas that are not only unproductive, but offend the collector membership.

One of these is the steady increase in what I call the police function. There is a strange supposition, again among nonmembers, that it is the responsibility of the ANA to be some sort of regulator of all nonmember conduct. That the opposite of what should be the case. ANA should have standing to regulate only member conduct.

ANA has loaned its good name to eBay to very little good result. If ANA does nothing, it looks weak and ineffective. If it does something, it infuriates those affected. In neither case does it help the ANA itself.

If the only contact you have with an organization is to have your wrist slapped,  or to be told of the many manifest failures of ANA to stop unethical conduct of nonmembers, why would you want to be associated with it?

ANA is supposed to be an educational organization established for the benefit of its members, not a police power haphazardly interfering in nonmember matters.



12/18/2007 9:03:07 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)  #  Comments [1]
 Monday, December 17, 2007
Start with a bang
Posted by Dave

This week is a busy one in the Numismatic News office. Just as things speed up in the summertime instead of slowing down, the week just before Christmas is the one where our annual Florida United Numismatists convention special issue is put together.

Instead of being able to focus on the holidays, the staff must focus on putting together one of the largest issues of the year. I hope readers will enjoy it when they see it.

Always kept in mind is how the paper will look sitting on the table at the Krause Publications booth in Orlando come the actual opening of the show. We all want to be proud of it.

Corporate budget season also provides a background of frantic activity when most people would like to ease off a little bit to enjoy the holidays.

Regardless of what goes on here in Iola, I hope you will have some time in the remaining days of 2007 to relax a little, enjoy interaction with family and friends and re-energize for the coming of 2008.

The new year does not come in slowly. The FUN convention assures that it will come in with a bang or a bust. There is scarcely any middle ground. The FUN issue itself start Numismatic News off with a bang.

Occurring simultaneously with the FUN show Jan. 10-13 will be the New York International Numismatic Convention. Europeans will be in Gotham to buy up everything that is round and shiny with their strong euros. I don’t blame them. Make hay while the sun shines as the saying goes.

The question for 2008 is how far can momentum carry us? Paper money is hot. World coins are hot. Coins of the U.S. have become a bit more selective. That is to be expected. Prices have gotten very rich indeed for classic issues.



12/17/2007 8:58:45 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Friday, December 14, 2007
Get 'em before public notices
Posted by Dave

A redesigned $5 Federal Reserve Note will be introduced March 13, 2008, the Bureau of Engraving and Printing announced yesterday.

It will be better at resisting counterfeiting efforts because it will have two watermarks and a security thread relocated to the left of the large portrait of Lincoln.

Will anyone accept it? This question is less about counterfeiting and more about the battered prestige of the U.S. currency around the world. Since World War I, when the dollar began to be widely looked to as a store of value and a source of stability, it became a real competitor to  the British pound, which before then had been the international reserve currency.

By the end of World War II, British finances were shattered and the Bretton Woods treaty made the dollar’s dominance complete.

Dominance can be a bad thing if it creates an unreasonable arrogance, or an unrealistic laziness by those who experience it. Is that what the rest of the world is seeing in the economy behind the dollar, or is the value decline pure blind panic akin to a bank run?

It is no secret the dollar has been declining since 2002. The pace of decline accelerated this year.

I was in Germany in 2005 when the euro cost $1.25. It is now $1.45. Prices seemed high then. What will they be like when I visit Berlin in February 2008 to give Coin of the Year Awards? I am already curious.

World prestige and value questions aside, the new $5 bill will prompt more newcomers to take up the hobby of U.S. paper money collecting. That is a good thing. It probably means more good times for those of us who are active in the field, though that also means higher prices will be paid by collectors for prize notes.

Better buy them now before the general public becomes aware of the redesigned note. Most people probably won’t realize a new note exists until they get one in change. That means you have a 90-day head start.



12/14/2007 9:06:21 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Thursday, December 13, 2007
Help me find the question
Posted by Dave

I had a phone call yesterday that had an Alice in Wonderland quality about it. The conversation lasted 15 minutes and I am still not sure what prompted the call in the first place.

It began routinely enough. A fellow said he had inherited a collection when he was very young back in 1947. It had been assembled during the prior 30 years.

So far so good. I was prepared for the follow-up question: how do I sell it?

Didn’t happen. Suddenly we swerved off into state quarters. How could you tell what they were worth, he asked? He had Numismatic News and Coin Market. The problem was he couldn’t say whether the coins were circulated or uncirculated.

I told him circulated coins were coins that showed some evidence of wear and that they would be worth face value. Uncirculated coins would have no signs of wear. I referred him to a listing of roll offerings by a major Numismatic News advertiser.

I said take half of the retail price and that would be a good place to start a negotiation, though no dealer is ever compelled to buy something he either doesn’t need, or at a price he doesn’t want to pay.

The man seemed to indicate that he got his rolls at a bank. My presumption being that he was doing this as each design was issued, but he never said as much.

Then we swerved again to coins of 1965-1969 that he was selling for silver. I said, “Oh, you are selling Kennedy half dollars.” He said no. Quarters. I said there were no silver quarters of that period. He insisted they were 30 percent silver and he had gotten that information from Numismatic News.

I said there was no silver in the quarters, but if he was selling these to someone who was paying more than face value, they must be uncirculated, or the buyer thought they were.

He gave me no more information.

It is very difficult to provide any kind of useful information if a caller doesn’t provide enough background. I was basically stumped.

The call ended with a request for a coin dealer in his home area. I gave him the name of a local shop. I know the dealer there won’t spend 15 minutes with him unless he gets to the real point.



12/13/2007 8:57:56 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Platinum Eagle gets a turn
Posted by Dave

I received a postcard yesterday from the U.S. Mint. It was in my personal mail to my home address, so I first saw it during lunch hour.

The topic of the card was to alert me to the sale that starts tomorrow of the 10th anniversary platinum American Eagle two-coin set.

Price of the set is $1,949.95. The coins in the set are half-ounce pieces. One is a proof. The other is what is called an enhanced reverse proof.

I don’t have the money in my budget for this set, so I will pass. However, I have to note that the price is just $482.65 over the value of the metal in the coins, which works out to a 33 percent mark-up. That’s not bad by international standards. Precious metal coins struck by the world’s mints are usually twice bullion value, though recent rapid gains in metal prices have distorted this somewhat.

Technically, that means the coins are cheap compared to their peers, though U.S. Mint mark-ups have always been lower than world averages.

However, collectors don’t buy based on world averages. They buy based on gross price. How many collectors have a spare $2,000 just before Christmas?

If they have the money, the next step is analyzing the mintage. It is up to 30,000. Will that be rare, or at least salable on eBay? At the beginning of the year, it might have been considered this. Now, with the Dolley Madison First Spouse coin still not sold out and the secondary market value of the Washington, Adams and Jefferson First Spouse coins pretty well collapsed back to bullion value, the determination is likely to go the other way.

I have pointed out from time to time that the Mint needs to prune its offerings. It, however, is on the self-perpetuating rationalization that next year’s sales always have to be greater than this year’s sales and that requires more and more products.

When businesses do that, it works until it doesn’t and then sales collapse and then there are big write-offs. Remember the baseball card boom or Beanie Babies?

You get my point.

If you are looking into it, check out www.usmint.gov, the Mint’s Web site.



12/12/2007 9:06:03 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Sunday show hours end
Posted by Dave

Want to start a numismatic bar fight? Just bring up the subject of Sunday bourse hours at a major convention.

This topic pops us this week because the Whitman Baltimore show announced a new schedule that eliminated Sunday hours completely. The owners then backed off a bit after some reactions from dealers who like Sunday hours and who have bourse contracts. The new Sunday-less schedule will go into effect, but just one show later in the year.

I agree with Whitman. Sunday hours should be eliminated for multi-day shows and conventions. It is sad to see bourses on a Sunday morning. You could hold bowling tournaments in the aisles and not hurt anybody. Dealers who have been on the road for days are tired and want to go home, or have already gone. The public does not support Sunday hours in any large numbers.

So what’s the problem? Naturally there are a few dealers who do well on Sundays and there are a few collectors who do show up. The question becomes should these few set the conditions under which the rest operate? Whitman decided a qualified no. It recognized the point by postponing implementation by one show, but proceeded with its plan.

The bar fight aspect is that supporters of Sunday hours say we are destroying the future of the hobby by not being open. The people who want to come on Sundays will desert the hobby forever.

I don’t agree. There are plenty of one-day Saturday and Sunday shows around the country for people who can’t go to a show during the week. Yes, it is too bad that they might miss a major show, but that is life. They will have to go to another one sometime in the future.

When conditions change, the hobby, including shows, have to change with it. What is remarkable is how many years the hobby has stuck with Sunday hours given the declining attendance. Show promoters and dealers gave it the old college try and now is the time to recognize the obvious and move on.



12/11/2007 8:59:54 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)  #  Comments [1]
 Monday, December 10, 2007
Coins better be the qualification
Posted by Dave

Looking for a career change? The position of American Numismatic Association executive director might just be the position for you. Then again, it might not.

The ANA posted the job on Friday. Candidates have until Jan. 11 to submit their applications and resumes.

All you have to do is straighten out an organization beset by lawsuits, alienated staff, bleeding finances and a board as much focused on 1968 as 2008.

Sound like the ideal job? Far from it.

The ANA’s track record in finding someone to manage the organization has been less than stellar. It first took a turn toward professional management instead of hobby management in 1987 when it decided to hire a retiring director of the Bureau of Engraving and Printing at the Atlanta convention.

Professional management is all well and good, but with each succeeding candidate, the hobby connection seems to have been lost in the shuffle.

The ANA board seems to realize this – at least partially. The press release says candidates for the positioin “must have considerable knowledge of and interest in the subject matter dealt with by the ANA or a similar hobby field.”

What are we now, the hobby that dare not speak its name?

My view is the board has had its priorities precisely reversed. The single most important factor is actually being a hobbyist. Everything else can be taught.

The board’s philosophy has been to ask for a glittering management resume and the hobby part can be taught.

Well, the last decade of experience seems to indicate that it cannot be taught. We hobbyists have been treated condescendingly and we know it. We don’t like it. We are ANA members precisely because we are coin and paper money collectors and precisely because all other considerations are basically irrelevant.

The hobby qualification must be central in a new ANA executive director’s background. Other qualifications are significant but any one of them is not absolutely essential, unless of course you think that the next Vatican conclave to elect a new Pope should focus solely on management skills.



12/10/2007 9:02:56 AM (Eastern Standard Time, UTC-05:00)  #  Comments [2]