Looking for a career change? The position of American Numismatic Association executive director might just be the position for you. Then again, it might not.

The ANA posted the job on Friday. Candidates have until Jan. 11 to submit their applications and resumes.

All you have to do is straighten out an organization beset by lawsuits, alienated staff, bleeding finances and a board as much focused on 1968 as 2008.

Sound like the ideal job? Far from it.

The ANA’s track record in finding someone to manage the organization has been less than stellar. It first took a turn toward professional management instead of hobby management in 1987 when it decided to hire a retiring director of the Bureau of Engraving and Printing at the Atlanta convention.

Professional management is all well and good, but with each succeeding candidate, the hobby connection seems to have been lost in the shuffle.

The ANA board seems to realize this – at least partially. The press release says candidates for the positioin “must have considerable knowledge of and interest in the subject matter dealt with by the ANA or a similar hobby field.”

What are we now, the hobby that dare not speak its name?

My view is the board has had its priorities precisely reversed. The single most important factor is actually being a hobbyist. Everything else can be taught.

The board’s philosophy has been to ask for a glittering management resume and the hobby part can be taught.

Well, the last decade of experience seems to indicate that it cannot be taught. We hobbyists have been treated condescendingly and we know it. We don’t like it. We are ANA members precisely because we are coin and paper money collectors and precisely because all other considerations are basically irrelevant.

The hobby qualification must be central in a new ANA executive director’s background. Other qualifications are significant but any one of them is not absolutely essential, unless of course you think that the next Vatican conclave to elect a new Pope should focus solely on management skills.

What does the future hold for us in 2008? Everybody would like to know. Many opinions are expressed, especially in the financial news media.

I am not in a position to take advantage of sophisticated economic models. I have to rely on what I can see and what I have experienced.

From that perspective, there is good news. Coin dealers and others active in numismatics have expressed their views in the most concrete way possible: with their cash.

I just deadlined the January 2008 issue of World Coin News. Display ad revenue decisively exceeded the target in our annual budget. The issue will be distributed at the Florida United Numismatists convention and the New York International Numismatic Convention in January.

This result does not mean the financial prognosticators who are pessimistic about next year are wrong, but it does cast some doubt. By both outlook and habit I am an optimist. I would love to be in the position of those hobbyists who live in the euro economies. Coins here seem incredibly cheap and euro-based buyers are aggressively in acquisition mode.

I saw a comment by World Coin News writer Bob Reis that his business was now higher abroad than domestically. That, he noted, had never happened before.

Every business person knows that profit is where you find it and you have to adjust behavior accordingly to maximize outcomes in ever changing conditions.

Conditions most assuredly are changing. But that isn’t necessarily a negative. It just means things are different. I like different. Hobby life would be boring if nothing ever changed.

There I go again, being the optimist.

Every Halloween I get a lesson in what is called line extension. I get to see what new forms familiar candies take.

The Mint is practicing line extension. The question is will coin buyers bite. If I have a big Hershey bar, little Kisses or bags of the little bars, it is all chocolate to me. It tastes great.

What about dollar coins? The Mint has a slew of new ways to buy dollar coins. A new set that went on sale Monday offers a West Point uncirculated silver American Eagle, four uncirculated Presidential dollar coins from Philadelphia and an uncirculated Sacagawea dollar from Denver. The price is $31.95. You might call it a dollar coin type set.

Then there are four-coin Presidential uncirculated sets for $8.95 from either Philadelphia or Denver. There is an eight-coin uncirculated set that includes the issues of both mints. Its price is $15.95.

Individual Presidential proofs are offered for $5.95 each.

Is there a market for these offerings? Are there people who don’t want a full proof set who decide that they really would like just a proof Madison dollar? It is certainly possible, but I have my doubts of it being an economically viable product line extension.

We have had packaging errors in the past when there were just proof sets and mint sets to keep track of. With all of these line extensions, the possibilities for packaging mishaps explode geometrically.

Already Ken Potter in recent years has noted that quality control for proof sets just isn’t what it used to be. The evidence comes in the many reports to him of proof coins with errors from minor die cracks to spiked heads.

Then there is the secondary market. For sure the many packaging options will drive price guide publishers crazy.

The Dolley Madison First Spouse gold coin is not yet sold out more than two weeks after it went on sale Nov. 19. This situation was not unexpected.

The price hike for this, the fourth coin in the series, upset many potential buyers.

The expense of routinely buying expensive gold coins is beginning to hit home with collectors who are facing the costs of building a set of approximately 40 designs and 80 coins (if we assume they want both proof and uncirculated versions).

And the instant profit available to any buyer who acquires what can be popular on eBay is missing.

Of the three factors, the eBay factor is probably the most critical for this set. Once this factor disappears, can it ever return?

That raises other questions in my mind that I would ask all collectors. Have you written off the idea of ever collecting a complete set of First Spouse gold coins? Have you written off the possibility of ever buying even one First Spouse coin? If you happen to have purchased any of the first three, will you continue to keep them, or will you sell them while the price of gold is high and move on to other areas?

I would like to know the answers. I think the Mint would like to know, too.

It is difficult to come back to work after having time off. Sure, with the Internet, I was not as out of touch as in those golden days of yesterday, but nevertheless, I got a good mental and physical rest.

Gold took a header while I was away. The stock market roared and clawed back a few of the losses from earlier in the month of November.

I happened to read a book called, The Panic of 1907: Lessons Learned from the Market’s Perfect Storm. It was written by Robert F. Bruner and Sean D. Carr. I recommend it. I saw it in the airport and knew I had to read it.

One of the marks of good publishing is to have a book on the rack that seems relevant to the headlines. For me, this was it. I have been watching the holdings in my retirement accounts drop dramatically, rise dramatically and then repeat.

It reminds me of the shampoo bottle instructions: “Lather, rinse and repeat.”
I am not fond of the wide swings, but current market conditions made me a ripe target for the book seller.

It is a relatively brief book. It was not an economics manual at least insofar as the history was concerned. The economics got a little deeper in the lessons section at the end.

This book should be read by coin collectors and paper money collectors because it sets the historical stage for the Federal Reserve Act of 1913. A lot of collectors wonder why the Federal Reserve was created. This will tell you.

We are living currently with the subprime mortgage mess. Politicians are taking positions. People are being hurt. Wall Street has gotten panicky.

Well, cast your mind back 100 years and you can see the same psychology at work. If you read the book, let me know what you think.

Everybody knows that the U.S. government is a big holder of gold bullion. It used to be said that the 260 million troy ounces that it has represents one-quarter of all the gold that was ever mined.

Since there has been a lot of gold mined since I first read that statement, the proportion is probably lower, but that is still one heck of a lot of gold.

Such a hoard attracts commentary from various and sundry sources. Every so often there is a rumor that the gold in Fort Knox is not really there. Back in the 1970s the rumor was so intense that there was actually a news conference to show off the stacks of 400-ounce gold bars. Numismatic News published the news and the photos.

Nowadays, the rumors take new twists. The government might still own the gold, it is said, but it has been leased out to the market to try to depress the price of the metal.

Well, if that is the case, they are doing a mighty poor job of depressing the price. That rumor is right up there with the war in Iraq was about the United States getting the oil. If we were acquiring oil, we sure did a poor job of it as any visit to a gas station will tell you.

But that is the nature of rumors.

In addition to rumors, there are conclusions based on snippets of information that don’t really apply.

Some e-mails I have received recently in response to our online poll question basically say that if the government owns so much gold that it acquired for $35 an ounce or less, then gold coins from the Mint shouldn’t be so expensive. After all, the government gets a profit, doesn’t it?

Well, the Mint doesn’t raid Fort Knox for its gold. It must buy it on the open market like everyone else. The one limitation is that legislation authorizing American Eagles specified that the gold the Mint buys must be mined within the country.

I don’t expect the rumors and opinions about U.S. government gold to disappear. If they did, that wouldn’t be any fun at all, now would it?

Wall Street calls them “pump and dump” schemes. What do coin collectors call them?

When you see someone online saying this or that coin will hit a certain price by a certain time, there is a possibility that the person making the forecast is not just being helpful. The writer might own what he is touting and hopes to make a quick profit on it.

If a group of Lincoln cent collectors were comparing notes online as to where they expect the price of XF 1909-S VDB coins to go over the coming year, that would be one thing. The presumption here is that they share a common interest, they are knowledgeable buyers and that all or a significant number of them already own the coin.

What if a writer posting an online opinion just happens to own a significant number of whatever it is he is touting?

Always ask yourself whether the opinion expressed online is a candid observation, or whether the person could own a large supply of the specific coin being mentioned. He would naturally like to unload them at a profit. You are the potential buyer who can help him reach his goal.

This time of year people tend to evaluate how their investments did in the prior year. Stocks look pretty saggy. Now is a good time to tend to your healthy skepticism so that you are inoculated against pie-in-the-sky coin purchases.

It is one thing to buy something for a collection. It is also fine to take a flier now and then as long as you know what you are doing. But beware the hot tip if it is in an area you cannot independently verify. Somebody might just want to dump the ready supply on you.