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 Wednesday, October 03, 2007
Grab your brush
Posted by Dave
I recalled an old saying yesterday that it is better to be silent and thought a fool than to open one’s mouth and prove it. This went fleetingly through my mind as I checked the weekly statistics about the numismaticnews.net Web site and the traffic to my blog. I was looking to see what the price of “silence” was last week. I had a concern not having posted anything last Friday and a simple invitation last Thursday to rejoin me on Oct. 1 that there might be a noticeable impact on the visits to my blog in the following days. The numbers indicate that this doesn’t seem to be the case. I hope I did not disappoint too many visitors when they discovered nothing new on Friday, but it is gratifying to know that should I awake with a toothache in the night, the roof won’t fall in the next morning and in the following week when no blog appears. Or, maybe I am on to something. Maybe I can post a “Watch this Space” sign here and go for days or weeks on end doing nothing. It would marvelously ease the burdens of my day. Or I could simply ask the question as to what stupendous and new topic would next appear in this space and ask readers to speculate with their postings. That, too, could go on for weeks. Then again, perhaps I am too much in thrall to the book I am currently reading about Mark Twain’s life. There is that little matter of Tom Sawyer, his friends and the fence that needed whitewashing ... Works for me.
10/3/2007 8:57:22 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Tuesday, October 02, 2007
To sell or not to sell, that is the question
Posted by Dave
It is time to sympathize with the U.S. Mint over its pricing of the uncirculated “W” American Eagle gold coins. It is experiencing the perils that face every vendor of bullion coins: rapid market fluctuation. It is almost a week late in repricing these coins. How do you make money when a daily price movement can severely dent or even eliminate the profit on a gold coin? Regular bullion dealers basically benchmark volume. Sell 10,000 ounces today. Make sure you have another 10,000 bought so by the close of business the position is square. As crazy as it sounds, this can put bullion sellers in the position of replacing inventory with higher priced replacement coins. More money would be made simply holding on. But that is not a bullion seller’s business. In fact, simply holding on would end the business. The cash flow comes from getting a percentage of each sale as profit. The Mint is facing this bullion seller’s challenge of fluctuating markets with the added handicap of thinking it needs to offer coins at fixed prices. When prices are rapidly escalating, this creates two choices: sell at a loss or don’t sell at all. The Mint has chosen the latter at least for the time being. I have suggested in this space that perhaps the Mint should float its prices and adjust them regularly with the market. Perhaps the delay in reoffering the gold “W” uncirculated coins is an indication that this possibility is being explored. Or, the Mint could simply be a deer caught in headlights.
10/2/2007 9:04:31 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Monday, October 01, 2007
Careful, it might fall
Posted by Dave
I am back. I have not yet figured out whether I want to be yet. This isn’t my typical Monday morning attitude, but it is prompted by a large pile of material precariously stacked up on my chair. I had to move it to get started here. I will have to go through it later. More than a decade into the Internet Age I still receive quantities of snail mail that mount up quickly in my absence. I make arrangements for the mail to be handled so the news gathering process never stops, but even then some of the mail requires my attention on my return. I am anxious to learn what occurred at the Long Beach show. It is a major event on the hobby calendar. In the 1980s and 1990s Long Beach always seemed to be marked by a swoon in the price of gold. Not anymore. I don’t know of anyone who actually tallied the number of times gold weakened going into the show. It might have been a mirage, but it was a mirage that many of us shared and commented on at the time. The fourth calendar quarter starts today and many will want to know how business is settling down now that we are in the heart of the autumn collecting season. I want to know too and that makes this a good point to stop for today.
10/1/2007 8:59:54 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Thursday, September 27, 2007
Please rejoin me on Monday
Posted by dave
I am off today and this is a notice to join me again for my blog on Monday, Oct. 1. Thanks for visiting and I hope you will rejoin me next week.
9/27/2007 9:06:50 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Watch Mint Web site
Posted by dave
When the U.S. Mint suspended sales of the “W” uncirculated American Eagle gold coins, it gave itself until Sept. 27 to reprice them and begin selling them again. With prices moving as fast as they have been since the Sept. 13 sales suspension, it will be interesting to see how the Mint thinks in this regard. I assume it won’t take my recommendation to let the prices fluctuate daily. A fixed price seems likely. How aggressively ahead will the Mint set the price? Will it be $50 above market for the one-ounce coin or more or less? If you want to know the Mint’s expectations for prices, this is the number to look at. Its dilemma is that too high a price will curb sales. Too low a price will ensure that the sales suspension-repricing mechanism will have to be used again before next year’s coins become available.
9/26/2007 9:06:46 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Tuesday, September 25, 2007
What is the gold record?
Posted by dave
The fact that gold is trading at levels not seen since 1980, raises a question as to just what is the record price for gold. $850 a troy ounce seems to be the popular figure, but others can justifiably cite $875 or $825. What are these? Well, the $850 is the mark achieved in London on that record setting bullion run. At the time, a generation ago, the London market was still looked upon as the most important bullion market because of its historical role in bullion trading. New York had only resumed gold bullion trading in 1975 after it became legal to own gold in the United States again, Dec. 31, 1974. The New York record trading price was $875 a troy ounce, but it was not a closing high Jan. 21, 1980. The actual close that day was $825. All three prices have legitimate reasons to be cited as the record, but because of the importance of London at the time, Numismatic News has always cited the $850 price as the high. It is a handy round-sounding number that just happens to split the difference between $875 and $825. Since the heady days of 1980, New York has gained more importance in gold trading and Numismatic News adopted New York prices as the benchmark rather than London. Those are the numbers I have used for many years. It is fair to say that any market that sees gold hit and one of those three numbers will probably be cited by headline writers. But for historical comparison purposes, it is always nice to have at least one set of numbers that is an apples to apples comparison. For me the numbers to use as a yardstick are New York numbers.
9/25/2007 9:12:11 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Monday, September 24, 2007
Buying mood sweeps markets
Posted by dave
The gold market and the stock market seem almost giddy. A rate cut on the overnight federal funds rate of one-half of one percent Sept. 18 have sent both metals and stocks rocketing higher. Gold has pushed through the May 11, 2006, high and returned the precious metal to a level not seen since Jan. 21, 1980, the date of its all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is nearing its all-time high, which was just over 14,000 hit on July 19 of this year. Enthusiasm from both markets has a tendency to spill over into the coin market, but because there isn’t a publicly reported average like the Dow, it is more difficult to pick up on it. Rising gold prices tend to improve coin dealer cash flow and they attract an investor crowd into numismatics. When dealers have more money and investors are chasing specific coins, coin prices tend to rise. The stock market part of this deal affects collectors themselves. Because so many of them are in retirement plans that benefit from stock market gains, collectors can feel more free to spend money on their coins. About the only thing that remains to be seen is what happens to house prices. Rising home prices also make collectors feel pretty optimistic and more willing to buy coins. The timing of the Long Beach Coin, Stamp and Collectibles Expo, which starts Sept. 27, couldn’t be better. It will be an opportunity for all of the market players to assess the state of things in light of the new reality in the gold and stock markets.
9/24/2007 9:01:08 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Friday, September 21, 2007
Will purple make you look for red and blue?
Posted by dave
Yesterday’s debut of the new design for the $5 Federal Reserve Note is good news for collectors. Any time a design is changed on notes or coins, the public notices and some discover numismatics in the process. Regular design changes to U.S. paper money began occurring in 1996 with the advent of what hobbyists call the “Big Head” design for the $100 Federal Reserve Note. It was no accident that the paper money hobby really took off following this event. We have since cycled through $50s, $20s and $10s. Some have changed a couple of times, with the most recent generation of notes having subtle shades of color. Subtle may be good. The Treasury was worried about negative public reaction to bold use of color. The new $5 will have a large purple “5” on the lower left of the back of the note, or is it lavender or mauve? Which name is more subtle? But whether the Treasury worries about color are justified or not, they have definitely succeeded in the past 11 years with making the public comfortable with new notes. I looked in my wallet to pull a $5 and a $10 as references and it occurred to me that the $10 is the first generation of Big Head note, not the second, so older notes obviously are still circulating side by side with the current series without many people noticing a difference. Subtle colors may be good for another reason. It distinguishes current paper money from the earlier issues that ran from the 1860s to the 1960s. Few remember the blue seals of Silver Certificates and the red seals of United States Notes. Almost nobody recalls yellow seals of Gold Certificates. These colors helped the public make distinctions between types of paper and payment. Now color is solely a counterfeit deterrent. The idea of having different classes of money sounds odd or quaint, but finding out about them as a collector is exciting. Whether the “5” on the $5 is purple or not is not the question. The question is how many people who happen to notice the color at all will go on to find the bolder colors on the notes of prior generations and avidly collect them? I think quite a few.
9/21/2007 9:12:59 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Thursday, September 20, 2007
Run, this is good for you
Posted by Dave
When someone tells you that something will be good for you, it is generally a sign to head for the hills because something unpleasant is about to happen. Here is your chance. Head for the hills, because what I am about to write may be good for you. It is budget season. Most people have all they can do to stay awake when the topic of budgets occurs, but they are critically important documents whether in business or government, because a budget enables you to do what you want to do or think you should do. Collectors should have hobby budgets. How much money do you think you will spend on coins in 2008? Do you have any idea? That is a good first step. Come up with a number. Many hobby purchases can become family footballs if there is no knowledge of amounts and timing by other members of the family. Is a purchase of that MS-65 1890-S Morgan dollar going to compete with getting braces for one of your children, or the next installment on a college tuition payment? When put in that light, the collecting expenditure looks mighty selfish. However, if you can make your total hobby expenditures a known figure and an expected event, the discussion can than hinge on total family needs and fair allocation among all the family members. Collectors are not known for starving their children or preventing them from going to college, but in my experience there have been, let us say “issues” between spouses when the subject of hobby expenditures arises. Avoid those issues and get an agreed number on the table. The budget can also include time. How many Saturdays or Sundays will you be off attending a coin show? When the lawn needs mowing or the garage door needs fixing, time for show visits can look mighty selfish. I know that somehow or other collectors get their licks in, but a budget could make the process far more pleasant. Believe me, a budget is good for you. Hello? Anybody there? Hello?
9/20/2007 8:55:46 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Wednesday, September 19, 2007
Golden opportunity might be in mintages
Posted by Dave
With gold bullion knocking on a door not opened to it since January 1980 in terms of prices, smart collectors should be thinking about the opportunities that might open up in the gold coin market. This has nothing to do with gold speculation and everything to do with being a true collector. If we learned any lesson at all in 1980 it is that mintage figures and condition meant less and less as gold hit higher and higher highs. For a time, everything but the true jewels of the various gold series saw their values simply boiled down to a formula of actual gold weight times the day’s price of gold. It seemed like cultural vandalism. The only decision collectors had was “are you selling, or not?” There were plenty of people in line to dump whatever they could at the record prices. In such a market, distortions develop. A coin that is relatively scarce that can be bought for metallic value might just be a good deal long term. When gold prices stabilize, relative scarcities reassert themselves. One of those relative scarcities to consider is in the new First Spouse series. Mintages have been 20,000 apiece, proof versus uncirculated in the sellouts. That is historically unusual. Collectors prefer proofs over time by a factor of 3:1 or 4:1. The numbers would seem to indicate that the proofs might just be undervalued relative to the uncirculated pieces. Of course, all bets are off it gold goes to $100 an ounce, but that doesn’t seem likely. Every collector should keep at least one eye on long-term values and scarcity relationships when considering the purchase of coins with high bullion values. It could pay off in the long run.
9/19/2007 8:59:41 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Buzz or Britney?
Posted by Dave
I was lying on a doctor’s examination table not long after I posted yesterday’s blog. Dramatic it was not, though the importance of vision to successfully collecting coins was a thought not lost on me. I got something in my eye Sunday night. Monday morning it was still there. After the blog was done, the little particle shifted and made further work difficult and a trip to the doctor’s office a goal of some urgency. I seem to have gotten off fairly lightly. The doctor showed me the particle and diagnosed a small scratch on the cornea of my right eye. There was really nothing to worry about, but standard operating procedure is to prescribe antibiotic drops to be administered every four hours when I am awake for seven days. An eye infection is something to be avoided. I have never taken my vision for granted. I started wearing glasses when I was eight years old, the same age as when I started collecting coins. Could there be a connection? Who knows? If there is, I have given up a great deal of my seeing ability in the pursuit of my hobby. While I have written often about the beneficial effects of coin collecting on health, I have never turned it around and pointed out that good health makes the hobby that much more enjoyable. Don’t take your eyes for granted. A scratch on one of them can do more damage to your life than one found on the cheek of an otherwise beautiful Morgan dollar. I can turn this episode into a numismatic story, but what I was really thinking as I tried to glance through the waiting room magazines was that this blog would be more popular if I had something to say about Britney Spears.
9/18/2007 9:02:44 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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 Monday, September 17, 2007
What's your story?
Posted by Dave
Most collectors experience a “eureka” moment. Before it occurs, they are like the rest of the population. After it occurs, they grab the coin price guides and are on the prowl. This subject matter occurred to me in a roundabout way. I broke my favorite coffee cup yesterday morning. My days usually begin at 5 a.m. and not long after that I am consuming my first morning cup of coffee in my favorite coffee cup. There is no real reason to become attached to inanimate objects, but somehow or other, these crazy attachments form. It is probably a matter of routine. At that hour of the morning, I don’t want to have to think about what I am doing. “Grab cup, pour coffee” is the height of my intellectual capacity in those first few minutes of a new day. I could grab any number of cups or mugs, but I don’t. Now I have no choice. I have a coin to which I have formed a similar attachment. It provided me with my eureka moment and is probably why I am a coin collector. It is a 1909 Lincoln cent. I have owned it for 44 years. It has almost no value, but it is priceless to me because of what followed. I found it when I was eight years old going through all the coins in the house. I had seen an ad in a comic book. In it was the promise that some cents dated before 1940 would be purchased for premium prices. I wanted that money. I found a number of cents that met the threshold of having dates before 1940. The 1909 was the prize. Something 54 years old in my hands seemed almost beyond comprehension at the time. I did not mail it in. Instead, my mother saw what I was doing and channeled it by taking me to a hobby shop. I got my first Whitman album. Actually, there were two. At the time, they ran 1909-1940 and 1941 to date. There were mintage figures in those albums that I could see which dates were the truly scarce ones. None that I had were. My mother probably knew that would be the result. On the other hand, she did not realize at the time what a powerful force had been let loose in my life. But I had formed my attachment to that 1909 Lincoln cent. I am still on the hobby prowl. Do they go hand in hand? They sure seem to. What’s your story? Comment here or send me an e-mail at david.harper@fwpubs.com
9/17/2007 9:08:21 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)
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