What do you think of conventional wisdom? That’s a big topic, so let’s apply it only to the American Numismatic Association board of governors election. Tomorrow afternoon we will find out the results. I have my hunches about the results. I have conventional wisdom. I have a professional opinion.

But I do not have the results.

Depending on who I talk to, the results can go dramatically in either direction in favor of the anti-incumbents or in favor of the incumbents.

But I think it is important to see what conventional wisdom says.

Conventional wisdom has it that ANA members believe in orderly transitions of power. Vice presidents always succeed the outgoing president.

Insofar as this year’s election is concerned, that will hold true. Barry Stuppler, the sitting vice president, will become president. Patti Finner, a sitting governor, will ascend to the vice presidency.

Conventional wisdom tends to favor incumbents. They have survived the electoral winnowing process before and will likely survive it again. That would put Gov. Don Kagin back for another term and Gov. Alan Herbert. Both are incumbents. Both are widely known.

You can argue the other side. Don Kagin recently was exonerated by the board in a Dwight Manley complaint. While he won, the publicity can’t be counted as a plus. Alan Herbert has lost an election before. He could do it again. However, conventional wisdom says he will be back.

That makes a count of four incumbents.

For the anti-incumbents, widely known and widely liked candidates have the familiarity factor on their side. Chet Krause and Cliff Mishler come from a long tenure as founders and builders of Krause Publications, my current employer. They are both well known to the ANA electorate.

Former ANA president and executive director Ed Rochette is also widely known and widely liked.

A fourth candidate for this slate, Walter Ostromecki, is widely known and widely talked up by anti-incumbents because he has the distinction of being the first governor to be voted off the board.

There is a huge electoral element in the sentiment to correct the present board’s action to toss him off the board.

That puts the new board at a 4-4 tie. This is not exactly a sweeping victory for either side.

Conventional wisdom can argue the final board member either way. Arthur Fitts, a former governor whose wife currently is retiring from a seat, is viewed as part of the incumbent group. He might provide the fifth vote and a majority for incumbents.

Joe Boling, who is currently chief judge, might provide the fifth vote on the other side. He is widely known as a hard worker and he has done an outstanding job as chief judge. Will that be enough? It could be.

Boling on the board would be the fifth vote for the anti-incumbents.

What will happen? I still don’t know, but I have, I hope, explained conventional wisdom.

Spain has committed an act of war against Panama. Did you miss it on the news?

Last Thursday a Spanish patrol ship intercepted the vessel, the Ocean Alert owned by Odyssey Marine Exploration, in international waters after it had left the port of Gibraltar. The ship is registered in Panama and by marine law is the affronted party.

Coin collectors are interested because this is the latest salvo in a fight about sunken treasure.

On May 17 Odyssey Marine announced that it had found the treasure, but did not identify the lost ship.

Spanish authorities are seething because they figure a plot is afoot to grab treasure from an old Spanish warship to which it has rights under international law.

It uses as its evidence photos of coins that seem to show Spanish or Spanish colonial 8 reales coins.

As collectors know, that is pretty flimsy, but greed knows no bounds. Spanish coins were the international currency of the world in the 17th and 18th centuries. Through its colonies its mines produced vast silver supplies that colonial mints poured forth as coins and sent back to Spain. The coins were so common, that they were the currency of choice for the 13 colonies that declared their independence from England in 1776. Colonial paper currency promised to pay Spanish milled dollars and the basis of the U.S. dollar was the Spanish milled dollar, which is the 8 reales.

The United States melted and assayed the 8 reales to determine what the U.S. dollar should be. Because they were off slightly, the U.S. dollar was just a tad lighter than the Spanish version.

Collectors know just because Spanish coinage is present on a ship doesn’t make the ship Spanish.

Is it surprising that Odyssey Marine would want to keep its find’s location secret? Well, if you find something of great value in international waters and you cannot anchor a security force there 24 hours a day, what would you do?

Spanish authorities have already sued the company over the matter, but apparently the legal process is not fast enough.

Perhaps the U.S. government can start seizing hoards of U.S. currency wherever they are found in the world under the supposition that they must be originally stolen from us somewhere.

Oh, these notes circulate freely around the world?

Tell that to the Spanish government about its historic coins.