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 Friday, June 08, 2007
Let's go ahead and panic
Posted by Dave

Fear is contagious. Fear can be the physical kind. Fear can be of the kind that causes financial panics in securities and commodities markets. Fear can even sweep a bourse floor and stop dealers from making deals that five minutes before would have been no-brainers.

My office saw a demonstration of the physical kind yesterday. The fun and games began when the National Weather Service announced that conditions were right for the formation of severe weather.

That kind of announcement is unusual. I thought it was silly. Imagine that. Late spring in Wisconsin, a front is going through and I need the National Weather Service to tell me severe weather is possible? Right.

Some public events were canceled in surrounding communities.

That set off the chattering in the morning. By afternoon, co-workers were on their cell phones. They were checking their Internet. The front was in Eau Claire in the western part of Wisconsin. It was supposed to reach us by 3 p.m.

The front reached Marshfield. There was water in the streets. Ooh, water in the streets of a Wisconsin city in a rainstorm. Must be global warming.

People were deciding to go home early to ride out the storm there. The building started emptying.

At 3 p.m. no storm. I went out for my usual walk and the sun was shining. There were dark clouds to the west, but no biggie. It’s June in Wisconsin. When I came in I commented about the sunshine.

Never mind, the storm would reach us by 4 p.m. It didn’t.

By this point most everyone in my area had left. I was working on a World Coin News feature about coin collecting in Vietnam.

A person came around to check who was still in the building around 4:30. I certainly was. There were others. I walked toward photo scanning and found someone doing – guess what – talking on a cell phone.

Still no storm. About 10 minutes after 5 p.m. I finished up Vietnam and decided to go home. Guess what? Sunshine.

I went home. I rented a movie on the way across town at the Depot Street Station. If it is going to rain, I’ll watch a movie, I thought.

You know what? It didn’t rain in Iola at all. There was softball-size hail in Wisconsin Rapids 41 miles west, southwest of us. It was pea size in Stevens Point, 22 miles west. Some power lines were down. We lost the usual barn further north, though it was a pole building rather than the familiar red wooden structure. All in all, it was a typical late spring weather pattern.

How much work was lost in this state yesterday I don’t imagine we will ever know.



6/8/2007 9:03:53 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Thursday, June 07, 2007
Errors that get mainstreamed are winners
Posted by Dave

Errors have been much in the headlines this year. The new Washington Presidential dollar features a plain edge variety that looks like it will become a permanent part of collector lives. I write “looks like” because it is still relatively new and collector habits and traditions build only over long periods of time.

For every truly long-term collectible error that arrives in numismatics, there are dozens, even hundreds, that will never make it past a relatively short existence in online auction listings from people who “have never seen anything like it,” create a fancy nickname for it, but of course, they don’t really know much about this sort of thing you understand.

Buying these flashes in the pan would be a quick way to the poor house if you chased them all. Fortunately, most collectors don’t. Many of the current error buyers will go on to the next fad someday and their heirs will find the hot errors of 2007 in a drawer somewhere. I shudder to think what they will be worth.

If you find yourself attracted to errors, I don’t want to dissuade you from participating in a very interesting field. However, you might consider checking the errors that have stood the test of time. You will have better luck preserving your investment with these coins going forward and they offer you the possibility of solid investment gains.

What coins am I thinking of? Well, look at the 1955 doubled-die cent and the 1972 doubled-die cent. Both have been embraced by the mainstream hobby.

Check out the 1922 plain cent. Whoa. Why do I mention that? Well, it was an error once. Now it is mainstream. The funny part is if collectors knew in 1922 what they know now, this coin would not be considered collectible.

The same thing is true of the 1937-D three-legged Buffalo. It is now a gilt-edge classic collectible that never would have gotten off the ground if today’s knowledge had prevailed when it was issued.

It may be fun to try to pick the next winner online. It may be interesting. But there are too many elements of lottery in it and commercial hype for this to be a sound collecting or investing strategy. To truly pick the winners going forward, look also to the winners of the past.



6/7/2007 8:57:20 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Wednesday, June 06, 2007
Are you sure you want to talk to me?
Posted by Dave

Remember the TV sitcom “Cheers?” My office is a little like that. Everybody knows my name.

There are advantages to being known. When I am covering an event, it can help to open doors, get a photograph or a quote that might otherwise not be available.

I remember my first days here when everybody didn’t know my name. I have worked with new staff who have telephoned people for a quote only to be told that they should do a little more research and then call back.

So, being known is an advantage.

It is also a disadvantage. No, I am not hounded by autograph seekers or stalking photographers. But I do get a lot of communications that come my way solely because my name seems to be the only thing the other party can think of.

I had a phone call Monday from a fellow who wants to buy the 2008 U.S. Coin Digest. He called me because my name is on the book and he wanted to know if the book had a hard cover. The sales materials said it had a hard cover, but he didn’t want to act on that information. He wanted to be personally assured that it had a hard cover. If it had a soft cover he would buy just one copy. For a hard cover, he would take three.

I could give him the information, but I cannot sell him the books. I am not in sales. I had to send him elsewhere.

Some readers send me their subscription problems. I can be sympathetic, but I cannot fix subscription problems. I can only send them to the subscription department.

None of this would be a particularly big deal except where time matters. I am not always here. Some people have sent their free weekly classified ads to me by name or by title. When I am out of town, they sometimes don’t get noticed or entered.

I have occasionally found checks in my mail when I have returned from a week away. They were mailed to me by name and that’s how the mail room routes it.

If you are in a hurry and want to do business with Numismatic News, contact the department you need the help from. While it is always nice to chat, where speed is essential, I am not the one to contact.



6/6/2007 9:01:49 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [1]
 Tuesday, June 05, 2007
Let's keep checking this out
Posted by Dave

One of the tasks I perform is to edit each annual edition of North American Coins and Prices. I had a heads up from the promotions department to tell me that the staff was preparing material for the release of the 2008 edition of this reference book later this summer.

This will be the 17 edition, so you can see I have been at it awhile. Part of the process is to take a look at the prior edition to try to evaluate what I thought worked and what I thought I ought to follow up on to make the next edition even better.

My eye stopped on the special chapter that I created to introduce collectors to the American Buffalo one-ounce gold piece and its proof collector version.

In the chapter I recounted the opening of the sales period for the proof 2006 Buffalo coin.

“For six hours it was a fight for anyone to get through. In the first 24 hours, the Mint sold 50,000 of the new proof American Buffalo coins.”

The fight, of course, was to order the coins online. The Mint’s Web site, which is quite good, was strained by the onslaught of eager buyers.

This year, the onslaught didn’t occur. The numbers released by the Mint show that in roughly the first five days, which included the Memorial Day holiday weekend, just 9,700 of the 2007 proof Buffalo coins were sold.

In the first five days last year, the total ordered was 75,000 and in 10 days it had risen to 100,000. Those were incredible numbers. The Mint put the coin on sale and 10 days later, it had “persuaded” many collectors to send in $80 million to buy 100,000 one-ounce Buffalo proofs. That is an achievement to be proud of.

Lightning did not strike twice for the Buffalo program. Yogi Berra said it ain’t over ’til it’s over, so I will be eagerly monitoring the sales figures as they are generated from week to week. Join me in my Mint Statistics column in Numismatic News and see where we go from here.



6/5/2007 8:59:08 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Monday, June 04, 2007
Joke or advice? Go figure
Posted by Dave

There is an old joke, or perhaps you could call it sterling advice about making gold market (or any market) forecasts. If you predict a specific price, don’t tell your audience when it will happen. That way, you can never be proven wrong.

At least once each year, I don’t follow that advice. I write a weekly column called "Class of ’63" in Numismatic News. In recent years, I have used an end-of-the-year column to forecast where I think precious metals are going.

At the end of 2006, I forecast that gold would have a mild downturn in 2007 and close the year at $600 a troy ounce. At the close of 2006, gold was at $635.20.

That forecast looked like genius for about three days. Gold dropped down to $604.90 and since then has shot higher. It has been as high as $692 on April 20. My forecast still has more than half a year to run before you can determine whether I was right or wrong. We’ll see.

However, I bring this topic up this morning because of a conversation I had while I was in Long Beach, Calif. Last Wednesday night I was one of five people at dinner. ANA Gov. Michael Fey sat to my left. We conversed about a number of topics during the course of the evening. It was enjoyable.

At one point, he turns to me and asks where I thought gold was going. I replied that I thought it might go down a little. He said he thought it was going to go up. That was about it. Neither one of us elaborated and we were drawn back into the general table conversation.

What happened Thursday? Gold went up. What happened Friday? Gold went up. It rose $18.10 during those two days, closing at $671.20. Judging from my table conversation, I couldn’t have been more wrong. Judging from my annual column, I still have more than half a year of time left.

Check back with me at the end of December when I do my self-evaluation. At that point, I won’t be able to use timing as an excuse.



6/4/2007 9:02:13 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Friday, June 01, 2007
Nothing matters but deadline
Posted by Dave

Coffee was especially welcome and necessary this morning. Yesterday I traveled back from Long Beach, Calif., where I had covered the May 29 hearing conducted by the American Numismatic Association board of governors at which a complaint lodged by Dwight Manley against Don Kagin was handled. Unfortunately, I did not get back to Iola, Wis., until 1 o’clock this morning, so I am somewhat less than sharp as a tack.

Weather delays backed up the air traffic system in Chicago, so I was delayed by around two and a half hours.

I am not unhappy, though. I met deadline yesterday with my story for both the Numismatic News print run to Shawano and for the www.numismaticnews.net Web site.

It might seem surprising that I did not return to my office until Friday when the hearing was conducted on Tuesday. Part of this is certainly the travel factor, but mostly it was due to the waiting factor.

Though the hearing went from roughly 9 a.m. until 5:40 p.m. Tuesday, I spent the most time in the process simply waiting. I waited for the board to come out of its deliberations. This it did at roughly 7:30. I write “roughly,” because I was not parked outside the closed meeting room door. I was sitting in the hotel bar just off the lobby and I looked at my watch when I noticed the ANA president enter the area. I was eager to find out the result, but that entailed more waiting.

Executive Director Christopher Cipoletti soon arrived and told me that he would begin writing the decision document the next morning. It would be circulated to the six governors who decided the issue, the two parties would then be notified and then, and only then, would a public announcement be made.

Chasing the board members turned out to be harder than I expected. Both Alan Herbert and Prue Fitts and traveled back to their homes Wednesday, so the draft had to be passed by them electronically. Barry Stuppler had to undergo a previously scheduled medical procedure.

By the time all was said and done, it was very late Wednesday night. It was so late in fact, that I was sleeping. I did not finish my assignment until Thursday morning, but that made the paper and that is all that matters.



6/1/2007 9:06:25 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Thursday, May 31, 2007
Presidential dollars succeed, sort of
Posted by dave

The jury may still be out on the eventual success of the Presidential dollar series. Only two coins have been released so far. Americans may never use them as a circulating medium of exchange. Collectors could grow tired of them.

However, one measure of the success of the program is already in. Full-page ads in non-numismatic newspapers made up to look similar to something official from the government appeared with the release of the Adams dollar.

“Public Notice of New United States Coins” read one that I saw in all capital letters.
A photo of two men in suits displaying a supposed set of Presidential coins establishes the “feel” of the ad. One man holds up a large piece of what looks like heavy cardboard with a photo of the White House on top and coins below it. Readers are urged to put in their $28 “claim” for it and get the first four of the Presidential coins for free.

Obviously, the cost of the holder must be quite large if you can get a $28 claim on it plus $4 in coins.

If ads like this appear, then I must presume that Americans are responding in sufficient numbers to cover the costs of the ads and encourage the firms that place them to keep doing it. That is an indirect affirmation of the appeal of the new Presidential dollar coins.

American marketing is nothing if not creative, but marketers won’t do something if it isn’t profitable.

The language of these ads has evolved over time as the Mint has acted to both raise its profile and reduce the possibility of confusion of its identity with purely private entities.

But it is a wonder to me that so many Americans don’t think of banks first when a new coin comes along. Perhaps that is an indictment of the nation’s banks. Supplying coins to customers is one of banking’s basic functions.

Americans claim they don’t want to use dollar coins to spend. They want paper instead, but at least some of these very same Americans will put their “claims” in when a private firm declares that it has a supply of new dollar coins. How interesting.



5/31/2007 8:45:17 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Wednesday, May 30, 2007
New date on notes
Posted by dave

Do you look at the dates on your paper money like you do on coins? If you do, it won’t be long before you will be seeing Series 2006 Federal Reserve Notes in your change. Ed Zegers of Olney, Md., is the first person to report to me his receipt of one, which is shown here.
daveblogimage.jpg
The note, which looks like it has already seen better days, was issued by the Cleveland Federal Reserve District. That is what the “D” in the district seal helps to indicate. The facsimile signature of Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. appears at lower right.

Zegers said it was the only 2006 he found among 2,500 notes searched. It won’t stay scarce for much longer. I checked the April printing report from the Bureau of Engraving and Printing and found that more than 50 million were printed for New York, 32 million for Philadelphia, 38 million for Cleveland, 70 million for Minneapolis, 6 million for Dallas and 83 million for San Francisco in that month alone. Production has hardly begun.

Zegers’ note was printed before April, because its serial number is below the run recorded for April. There are at least 89 million of them out there.

Why has it taken so long for a 2006 to find its way into circulation? Well it all relates to how paper money is issued.

The commencement of Paulson’s tensure in office last year is what prompts the issue of new notes. Unlike coins, U.S. paper money is not issued with new dates every year. A new date is adopted only when the design is changed in a major way or when the Treasury secretary signing the note changes. 2003A is the prior series.

If you wonder what a date with a suffix letter means, like the 2003A, the letter indicates a change in the Treasurer of the United States, who signs at lower left, while the Treasury secretary remained in place.




5/30/2007 9:01:58 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [1]
 Tuesday, May 29, 2007
Quarter promotes movie
Posted by dave

Did you get a Silver Surfer quarter in your change yet? There are supposed to be 40,000 of them out there. They were put into the banking system by 20th Century Fox to promote the June 15 debut of the studio’s new movie, Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer. It is called the “Search 4 $ilver” campaign.

I don’t expect to see one here in Numismatic News’ hometown of Iola, Wis. It would take a while for them to find their way here and sharp-eyed movie and comics fans will grab them long before they circulate to rural Wisconsin.

If you do find one before June 4, go to the official Web site, www.riseofthesilversurfer.com, and register for the prizes. The top one is a four-day trip to the movie’s premiere in London, England, on June 12.

Yes, I know I am being a shill for the promotion. But, hey, I would like to visit London just as much as the next guy. Perhaps the winner will send me a postcard.

If you do find a Silver Surfer quarter, what you will have is a California State quarter from 2005 onto which is affixed some sort of decal-like device on the reverse that depicts the Silver Surfer.

The advertising piece was created by the Franklin Mint for 20th Century Fox, so now we know what the old firm is doing on its return to numismatics.

E-mail me at david.harper@fwpubs if you do find one. Let me know how it is put together and what you think of it.

After the contest is over, I imagine all 40,000 quarters will end up on eBay. What do you think they will be worth?



5/29/2007 9:11:25 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Friday, May 25, 2007
Retirement closes new issues career
Posted by Dave

Fred Borgmann retires at the end of next week on June 1. He has been a colleague of mine on the numismatic staff for my entire career here, now almost three decades.

Had he chosen to stick around until August, he would have marked his 31st anniversary with Krause Publications.

That’s quite an achievement in an age when we are told that the average worker will hold 10 jobs in his career.

Fred’s job was and always has been cataloging new issues from the world’s many mints so that they get listed in the Standard Catalog of World Coins. It is a precision job in an age of corporate “whatever.”

The world’s mints don’t beat a path to our door and hand us computer disks or paper lists of everything they produce. Dealers have regularly sent packages to Fred to identify coins, assign them Krause-Mishler numbers and figure out what they are made off. He sometimes resorts to specific gravity tests to figure it out.

All of this takes time, patience and encyclopedic knowledge of world coinage output. There is probably no other individual who has such a keen sense of what is going on with new issues.

Whenever I had a world coin question, I knew who to ask.

Several dozen of his co-workers gave him a retirement lunch yesterday here at the office. The photo shows him with his wife, Kathy, holding the retirement cake.

It was a nice affair. Brats and hamburgers were cooked on a gas grill. There was a little trouble getting it going at first, so I quipped to Fred that it was a good thing there was another retirement party next Thursday at the bowling alley where we could get it done right.

Those last few words might have been Fred’s motto, “Get it done right.” He always did.

For nearly 31 years that is what he has been doing to the benefit of the collectors and dealers of the world who use the Standard Catalog both in print and in its new incarnation online in NumisMaster.

Good luck in retirement, Fred. We’ll miss you.


5/25/2007 9:01:17 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [1]
 Thursday, May 24, 2007
Photo didn't make it
Posted by Dave

Take a look at the photo. You won’t see it on the front page of Numismatic News. It, as they say about the movie industry, ended up on the cutting room floor.

The event at which it was taken is significant. It was the official launch on Tuesday of the Adams Presidential dollar in our second President’s hometown of Quincy, Mass.

The persons in the photograph are also significant. The problem though is the photo’s composition.

The U.S. Mint director, Edmund C. Moy is on the left. There is a lot of gaping space between him and the other ceremony participants. The eye doesn’t know where to look easily.

I could show just the Mint director, but then you really wouldn’t know the context. It could be a speech delivered anywhere at anytime.

On the right of the photo, the eye goes to the historical re-enactor Sam Goodyear. He is seated with Quincy, Mass., Mayor William J. Phelan. To focus solely on these two individuals would show little energy or enthusiasm for the great day and they could be an actor and his manager conversing before the beginning of an historical play somewhere.

Then there is the fellow in the hat. He is descendant Peter Boylston Adams. It was very good of him to participate. We should all be grateful. To focus on him alone would also not do anything to give readers the idea of the great event of which he was a part.

This becomes one of many photos that I do not publish, but to see it here gives you a glimpse into how I think.

I would like to thank the U.S. Mint for providing the photo (and the one I did use) and I think the whole hobby should say thanks that Presidential dollar launch events of this kind are being staged. It helps everybody. Keep them coming.

Will we see the Jefferson dollar debut in Colonial Williamsburg accompanied by fifes and drums? I hope so.



5/24/2007 9:13:47 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]
 Wednesday, May 23, 2007
Numbers add up for change
Posted by Dave

Some things just don’t add up. The Presidential Coin Act that authorized the current series of Presidential dollars also requires that the U.S. Mint issue Sacagawea dollars in a number to equal one-third of the total of all dollars struck this year and in future years.

When I saw that number for the first time, I asked the Mint about how that might be done.
I could understand collectors continuing to buy Sacagawea dollars even as the Presidential series unfolded. I could understand they would want five-coin proof dollar sets and five dollar coins in the regular proof set, but the math didn’t add up.

If collectors take one of everything, the percentage attained would be 20 percent. That is a long way from 33.33 percent. So far, I haven’t seen anything from the Mint that would help spur Sacagawea dollar demand to a level to comply with the law.

Perhaps the solons in Congress noticed this, or perhaps a Mint official put a bug in a congressional ear, but legislation in the form of H.R. 2358 has been introduced to correct that mathematical dilemma. But correction is not the sole purpose of the legislation.

The legislation also authorizes and annual reverse design on the Sacagawea dollar to honor Native Americans. This then would make the coin a commemorative, too. The congressional sponsors, I imagine, also believe, that the new themes will spur additional demand.

They saw the popularity of the Buffalo commemorative silver dollar of 2001 that first reused the Buffalo nickel design and then the launch last year of the same design on a one-ounce gold coin.
Collectors say they like the James Earle Fraser design of Buffalo and Native American whenever they are asked. Perhaps the potentially new Sac dollars will broaden the Native American thematic appeal.

The legislation has to pass before that can happen. Something tells me that it will have little problem getting support. The numbers for that seem to me to add up.



5/23/2007 8:56:24 AM (Eastern Daylight Time, UTC-04:00)  #  Comments [0]